ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[ronjon]

Aric Dunn did mention to look for a LLC near the Isle of Youth

That area is exactly where the new area of convection is going up as the last blob moves off and starts to weaken.

It's also the area GFS develops the 850 vorticity max.

[tolakram]

It could also be an illusion due to the mid level circulation and some outflow boundaries getting thrown around. You can see the hook in the low level clouds being thrown off to the north over Cuba which might indicate a forming LLC, but I'm just not sure.

[Ivanhater]

It could also be an illusion due to the mid level circulation and some outflow boundaries getting thrown around. You can see the hook in the low level clouds being thrown off to the north over Cuba which might indicate a forming LLC, but I'm just not sure.

Microwave could be showing the start of LLC just south of the Isle of Youth...note the dark spot

[cycloneye]

The latest surface observations.There is a 25kts ob.

[ROCK]

I think it costs to much to move the NHC floater...

remember the good ole days when we could just request it....those were the days....

[Ivanhater]

Is that a west wind I see?

[RL3AO]

Is that a west wind I see?

Its a ship report but I'm very skeptical. A buoy about 1 degree SW of the ship reported a NE wind of 2kts at the same time.

[HurricaneBrain]

I think we're going to see a code orange with a "...recon will investigate the area tomorrow if necessary." sentence next TWO.

[AHS2011]

60% next update?

[HurricaneBrain]

60% next update?

Maybe 50% but you know the NHC. They will probably gradually raise up the chances for this one.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I believe this will be a tropical depression within 48 hours. Winds of 30-35 mph are probably occurring within 90L right now, and surface observations support some sort of low level circulation. We'll see how conditions are in the Gulf of Mexico. If they end up favorable, I won't doubt the first hurricane of the season.

[KWT]

I'd say 50%, I think to go upto a code red from just 10% is a bit too bullish I suspect.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Knowing the NHC, they will only raise it to 30%. Or...They may keep it at 20%.

[Florida1118]

I'd say 50%, I think to go upto a code red from just 10% is a bit too bullish I suspect.

They would probably only do it if it was a possilbe threat to land. Im going to go with 40-50%.

[Ivanhater]

So far this season the models again have missed another developing TC. If it were up to the models we would only have had Arlene so far...let this be a lesson to us all.

[KWT]

Knowing the NHC, they will only raise it to 30%. Or...They may keep it at 20%.

Its gotta go code orange, I'd be shocked if they only went to 20% and that would only happen if the NHC are really hugging the models, not always a great idea as shown by Bret and Cindy...

[HURAKAN]

It will be like a slap in the face if NAM wins this model race! lol

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. HOWEVER...THE
SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[ROCK]

So far this season the models again have missed another developing TC. If it were up to the models we would only have had Arlene so far...let this be a lesson to us all.

very true Ivan....sometimes you have to see things for what they are and not hug the models.....well maybe hug the NAM the rest of the season....


did I mention the percentage tool and how much I hate it? 30% is ridiculous....should be about 40-50 IMO

[Ivanhater]

Well up to 30 percent but the reason it was bumped up only 10 percent is because it "does not have a closed circulation at this time"...wouldn't that make it a TD already?