ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[jinftl]

NWS Miami Discussion was before 8pm, when the probability was raised from 80% to 90% (so they are a bit out of date)

:uarrow: I just noticed they brought down the percentage from 90% to 80%.

[HurricaneWarning92]

NWS Miami Discussion was before 8pm, when the probability was raised from 80% to 90% (so they are a bit out of date)

:uarrow: I just noticed they brought down the percentage from 90% to 80%.

alright, i see now. Thanks.

[Fego]

Much better now than a few hours ago.

['CaneFreak]

Uh oh...this thing is fixing to go BOOOM...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

The old mid level circulation from earlier in the day that WAS to the east of the low level circulation is now getting a chance to catch up with the low level circulation...I fully expect an upgrade by either 5 or 11...

[HurricaneWarning92]

yeah, you can also see that famous trough we've all been talking about.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Uh oh...this thing is fixing to go BOOOM...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

The old mid level circulation from earlier in the day that WAS to the east of the low level circulation is now getting a chance to catch up with the low level circulation...I fully expect an upgrade by either 5 or 11...

It is beginning to really get going...

[SouthFloridawx]

Hey 'Canefreak, check your private messages.

[boca]

That trough was pushing SE off the New Jersey coastline.I never seen dry air depicted that way.

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z GFS is out to sea.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=07%2F31%2F2011+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=850_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

[jinftl]

Any trend over last 3 sets of model runs...most recent is posted 1st, followed by models 6 hours earlier, finally, models run 12 hours earlier than current set:

Latest model runs:



6 hours prior:



12 hours prior:

[fci]

I also said TD by Sunday Morning, TS by the evening and Hurricane by Tuesday. Let's see what happens.

Well add me to the "genius" list as I predicted TD on Sunday and TS on Monday.
Seriously, none of us knows. The NHC doesn't know either and they are the Pros!
Guessing is fun though but let's not hurt ourselves by patting ourselves on our backs.
Oh, my next stroke of genius is calling for a recurve with the storm never hitting the CONUS.
Of course that is based on experience and climatology (I'm not a genius but let's keep that between us) and I will NOT be saying I told you so if I am correct.
Seriously, if this strengthens soon, good luck to those in The Islands.

[Weatherfreak000]

Models getting more and more keen on the recurve solution, has been the case for the past 48 hours.

[jinftl]

Recurve after seriously threatening/crossing over the islands NE Caribbean....not much indication of recurve before impacting that area....that is the region at most risk

Models getting more and more keen on the recurve solution, has been the case for the past 48 hours.

[SouthFloridawx]

The last image shows less recurve than the previous actually.

Models getting more and more keen on the recurve solution, has been the case for the past 48 hours.

['CaneFreak]

Haha...and poster that supposedly said "I told you so" went back and edited his post because he realized that it sounded kinda one way and specifically said "I am NOT trying to say I told you so"...I love how posts get taken out of context on here...that is what makes this so fun...

I also said TD by Sunday Morning, TS by the evening and Hurricane by Tuesday. Let's see what happens.

Well add me to the "genius" list as I predicted TD on Sunday and TS on Monday.
Seriously, none of us knows. The NHC doesn't know either and they are the Pros!
Guessing is fun though but let's not hurt ourselves by patting ourselves on our backs.
Oh, my next stroke of genius is calling for a recurve with the storm never hitting the CONUS.
Of course that is based on experience and climatology (I'm not a genius but let's keep that between us) and I will NOT be saying I told you so if I am correct.
Seriously, if this strengthens soon, good luck to those in The Islands.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Models getting more and more keen on the recurve solution, has been the case for the past 48 hours.

idk notice the 6 hrs prior models, some were farther east. now theyve come closer together but have not shifted eastwards. it could still take the westernmost model and that could take it very close to the outer banks. that wouldnt be called recurve.

[HurricaneWarning92]

The last image shows less recurve than the previous actually.

Models getting more and more keen on the recurve solution, has been the case for the past 48 hours.

again, agree.

[Florida1118]

I cannot believe we are still going back and forth on recurve when the dang thing still hasnt formed yet.

[TwisterFanatic]

Models getting more and more keen on the recurve solution, has been the case for the past 48 hours.

Sorry, but I hate the word recurve when it's a potentially significant problem to PR, Dominican Republic, Haiti and possibly the Bahama's.

Recurve should be used when it's forecast to curve out to sea without impacting any land.


Besides, I don't know how you get that based on the 3 graphics posted above.

[HurricaneWarning92]

I cannot believe we are still going back and forth on recurve when the dang thing still hasnt formed yet.

im just observing. besides im not saying it will not recurve. it could very well recurve as it could miss the islands and be called a fish.