ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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Re:

#1121 Postby otowntiger » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:21 pm

[quote="Jevo"]12Z Euro +72

At 96 hours the Euro shows it obtaining a pretty high lattitude. It would take a really hard left from there to start to become a concern for CONUS, in my opinion.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1122 Postby BigA » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:24 pm

12Z FIMY model. The end of the run is 240 hours, so a long ways away. No prizes for guessing which storm of the last decade she's channeling on this run.

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#1123 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:26 pm

WOW euro hard left at 120 hours.. how far left will it go

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
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#1124 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:27 pm

12Z Euro +120

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#1125 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:31 pm

really no comments are the left turn by the Euro at 120 hours.. lol
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#1126 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:31 pm

ECM does bend back to a WNW track between 96-120hrs, still gaining latitude. Upper trough should be strong enough to do the job on this run.
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Re:

#1127 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:32 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:WOW euro hard left at 120 hours.. how far left will it go

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html


i was just 3 months when Andrew struck S. FL, plus i didnt live here back then, but isnt that a similar track Andrew took? at least till 120 hours.
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Re:

#1128 Postby otowntiger » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:32 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:WOW euro hard left at 120 hours.. how far left will it go

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
Yes, it does seem to bend. Hard left maybe overstating it. Off topic, the system in the gulf is becoming huge and intense and seems to dwarf Katia at 120hrs!
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Re:

#1129 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:33 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:really no comments are the left turn by the Euro at 120 hours.. lol


Theyre all in TalkinTropics freaking out oer the system the Euro develops in the GOM :lol:

12z Euro +144

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Re:

#1130 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:33 pm

KWT wrote:ECM does bend back to a WNW track between 96-120hrs, still gaining latitude. Upper trough should be strong enough to do the job on this run.



would have to go ahead and say no... yeah well ummmm..... straight west at 144 hours.. ridging building in like nogaps and CMC ... maybe just north of west hard to say being such big jumps in hours.. but still ridging to the north holding to 144 hours. big shift for the euro though

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1131 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:33 pm

Yea. Thats got me worried. If that pans out...Lee is going to be a MONSTER.
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Re:

#1132 Postby otowntiger » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:34 pm

KWT wrote:ECM does bend back to a WNW track between 96-120hrs, still gaining latitude. Upper trough should be strong enough to do the job on this run.


I was just thinking the same thing. The more lattitude Katia gains the better for all involved (save for Bermude perhaps). Now if she actually does that in real life we'll have to wait and see. :wink:
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1133 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:35 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Yea. Thats got me worried. If that pans out...Lee is going to be a MONSTER.



Well at least Florida has a big bottle of Katia repellant..... called Lee
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Re: Re:

#1134 Postby otowntiger » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:35 pm

Jevo wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:really no comments are the left turn by the Euro at 120 hours.. lol


Theyre all in TalkinTropics freaking out oer the system the Euro develops in the GOM :lol:


Well they're not in "Talkin' Tropics" anymore. Its an active storm , invest 93L.
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Re: Re:

#1135 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:36 pm

otowntiger wrote:
Jevo wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:really no comments are the left turn by the Euro at 120 hours.. lol


Theyre all in TalkinTropics freaking out oer the system the Euro develops in the GOM :lol:

12z Euro +144

Well they're not in "Talkin' Tropics" anymore. Its an active storm , invest 93L.


Well Excuuuuuuuuussseeeeee Me

LoL thanks for the update ;)
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Re: Re:

#1136 Postby caneseddy » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:36 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
KWT wrote:ECM does bend back to a WNW track between 96-120hrs, still gaining latitude. Upper trough should be strong enough to do the job on this run.



would have to go ahead and say no... yeah well ummmm..... straight west at 144 hours.. ridging building in like nogaps and CMC ... maybe just north of west hard to say being such big jumps in hours.. but still ridging to the north holding to 144 hours. big shift for the euro though

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html


Um, that track and turn by the Euro at 144 hours is identical to the "A" storm that shall not be named. It makes the west turn around the same area.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19922.asp
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1137 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:37 pm

Jevo wrote:
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Yea. Thats got me worried. If that pans out...Lee is going to be a MONSTER.



Well at least Florida has a big bottle of Katia repellant..... called Lee



dont know about that.... LEE from 96 to 144 hours in the EURO starts headind SW..
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#1138 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:37 pm

12z Euro +168

What maddness is this

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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1139 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:38 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Jevo wrote:
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Yea. Thats got me worried. If that pans out...Lee is going to be a MONSTER.



Well at least Florida has a big bottle of Katia repellant..... called Lee



dont know about that.... LEE from 96 to 144 hours in the EURO starts headind SW..


Yeah that is about the area Andrew made a turn in 1992. So yeah it is possible if a big ridge sets up there....oh boy I am hoping that troughiness hangs tough.

Kindaof reminds me of Frances in 2004....models showed a recurve in the long-range about the area Katia is in now but then started sniffing out a ridge that bent her back west.
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#1140 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:38 pm

ECM heads near due west at 168hrs :eek:

Could be a close call this run with regards to the upper trough...
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