ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[HurricaneBrain]

We're gonna have to wait for the recon statement. I'll be back in a few hours!

[Stormcenter]

That's what I thought too.

Well up to 30 percent but the reason it was bumped up only 10 percent is because it "does not have a closed circulation at this time"...wouldn't that make it a TD already?

[KWT]

Well up to 30 percent but the reason it was bumped up only 10 percent is because it "does not have a closed circulation at this time"...wouldn't that make it a TD already?

Its fair to say they've been behind the curve thus far this year when it comes to these percentages...

That being said its fair to say there probably isn't anywhere near enough model support for them to be too ambitious, I'm sure if there was strong support we'd have code red right now...and alas they have gone Code Orange as well.

[Ivanhater]

12z HWRF brings 90L to 82 knots/976mbs and strikes STX.

[NDG]

I still think that any LLC that is or would develop will be to the SW of the Isles of Youth towards where the lowest pressures are found, there was an outflow boundary that came out of the storms to the ESE of the Isles of Youth.

[KWT]

Dolly part II in other words Ivanhater!

IF it does develop and manages to avoid the shear, thats not an unreasable forecast.

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like a lot of options on the GFS ensembles:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[South Texas Storms]

12z HWRF brings 90L to 82 knots/976mbs and strikes STX.

Do you have an image or a link to that?

[KWT]

Looks like a lot of options on the GFS ensembles:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

Yeah, though general consensus does seem to be S.Texas. interesting that quite a few don't lose the system either...

[Ivanhater]

HWRF

[NDG]

Well up to 30 percent but the reason it was bumped up only 10 percent is because it "does not have a closed circulation at this time"...wouldn't that make it a TD already?

Its fair to say they've been behind the curve thus far this year when it comes to these percentages...

That being said its fair to say there probably isn't anywhere near enough model support for them to be too ambitious, I'm sure if there was strong support we'd have code red right now...and alas they have gone Code Orange as well.

I totally agree with you.

[dixiebreeze]

Don't think I buy the Mexico landfall:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tropics-bin/ ... PE=Instant

[cycloneye]

Contrary to that,GFDL does not develop.Tracks towards SE Texas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

The HWRf is nuts, its got this down to 995mbs by 06z...tomorrow morning!

The end outcome may be realisitic if all goes as it could, but the expectation for RI in the next 12-24hrs IMO is a little over the top from it!

To be fair Cycloneye, it does develop a TD out of it in the end...

[TheBurn]

[petit_bois]

it's falling apart... again. 90L likes the morning best.

[maxx9512]

Am I right in seeing a more of northwesterly track then a west-northwest movement down the line
with this system? More so if it does develope correct?

[SouthDadeFish]

Lower level winds on the west side of the circulation look to be about next to nothing. Seems like some sort of circulation is trying to pull them in, but can't quite do it yet.

[Ivanhater]

it's falling apart... again. 90L likes the morning best.

It is not falling apart....the convection blob to the SW is falling apart. Banding is improving dramatically and the LLC is coming together.