ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

Texas is still in the cone, so don't focus on the center path.

[Ptarmigan]

its got some work to do....reminds me of Allison.....

I remember Allison. I remember the area that became Allison was forecasted to go to Louisiana not Texas.

[KWT]

KWT is there any model the NHC would have based this on that was showing it moving inland that direction and speed?

I think they are just going with the consensus, problem is this is one of those set-ups that it could do just about anything, including pull a loop/stall either just offshore or indeed possibly inland.

The CONE is more key in this set-up then normal even in the 24hr timeframe.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, that's good news. Lots of rain still for LA, probably some flooding rains, but at least it's not going to be sitting over the warm Gulf all weekend long intensitifying . I am surpised they are moving it inland as early as Saturday Afternoon, BUT they are the PROs and study maps more effectively than we do, , and we are only speculators......

[KWT]

Well, that's good news. Lots of rain still for LA, probably some flooding rains, but at least it's not going to be sitting over the warm Gulf all weekend long intensitifying . I am surpised they are moving it inland as early as Saturday Afternoon, BUT they are the PROs and study maps more effectively than we do, , and we are only speculators......

Indeed, I think the NHC are probably just going with the consensus model, so don't take the track speed too seriously, as i said in my previous post it could easily pull all manner of funky things, take a look at many of the storms that have formed in the N.Gulf and see how quite a few pull little loops or stalls, or just generally erractic motion.

guessing they don't believe in the stall that the global models suggest in the 48-72hrs range

[SunnyThoughts]

sun setting on #13

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/data/satellite/20110901_2245_GULF_vis.jpg

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see this getting inland by Saturday if you go by the synoptics and most of the global models. Think they kind of had to put it somewhere though just in case.

[gone2beach]

Yep, we just had the TS warning come over the weather radio....

[Garnet1995]

Is there anything out there that could cause the models to shift west again? Especially if it meanders in the gulf for a while....anything?

[Emmett_Brown]

At least for the short term, steering currents would suggest a continued NW movement:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=

[quindar]

Well, that's good news.

Unfortunately not for me and the population of trees near me.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well, that's good news. Lots of rain still for LA, probably some flooding rains, but at least it's not going to be sitting over the warm Gulf all weekend long intensitifying . I am surpised they are moving it inland as early as Saturday Afternoon, BUT they are the PROs and study maps more effectively than we do, , and we are only speculators......

Indeed, I think the NHC are probably just going with the consensus model, so don't take the track speed too seriously, as i said in my previous post it could easily pull all manner of funky things, take a look at many of the storms that have formed in the N.Gulf and see how quite a few pull little loops or stalls, or just generally erractic motion.

guessing they don't believe in the stall that the global models suggest in the 48-72hrs range

I agree with that except the model consensus has this stalled or even looping in the gulf. Definitely don't think I saw any that had this moving inland on saturday though.

[ROCK]

Unfortunately Rock you guys don't look to get much rain from this. Even though I'm sure you wouldn't want some 25"+ either though that Allison gave ya'll. I surely don't want the 15 or so were are forecast to get and that will probably end up being on the really conservative side. I wish I could send half of it your way. i know you guys were hoping and needing to get a good soaking from this.

based on what? recent runs of the GFS.. ...if this does dive SW along the coast of TX then we will get some relief....

[bamajammer4eva]

Well, that's good news. Lots of rain still for LA, probably some flooding rains, but at least it's not going to be sitting over the warm Gulf all weekend long intensitifying . I am surpised they are moving it inland as early as Saturday Afternoon, BUT they are the PROs and study maps more effectively than we do, , and we are only speculators......

Indeed, I think the NHC are probably just going with the consensus model, so don't take the track speed too seriously, as i said in my previous post it could easily pull all manner of funky things, take a look at many of the storms that have formed in the N.Gulf and see how quite a few pull little loops or stalls, or just generally erractic motion.

guessing they don't believe in the stall that the global models suggest in the 48-72hrs range

I agree with that except the model consensus has this stalled or even looping in the gulf. Definitely don't think I saw any that had this moving inland on saturday though.

All of that would still be well within the Cone or in this case Circle.

[ROCK]

Well, that's good news. Lots of rain still for LA, probably some flooding rains, but at least it's not going to be sitting over the warm Gulf all weekend long intensitifying . I am surpised they are moving it inland as early as Saturday Afternoon, BUT they are the PROs and study maps more effectively than we do, , and we are only speculators......

Indeed, I think the NHC are probably just going with the consensus model, so don't take the track speed too seriously, as i said in my previous post it could easily pull all manner of funky things, take a look at many of the storms that have formed in the N.Gulf and see how quite a few pull little loops or stalls, or just generally erractic motion.

guessing they don't believe in the stall that the global models suggest in the 48-72hrs range

I agree with that except the model consensus has this stalled or even looping in the gulf. Definitely don't think I saw any that had this moving inland on saturday though.

try looking at the 12Z CMC....

[bexar]

what are the odds of this thing going under RI?

[Cranica]

what are the odds of this thing going under RI?

It's under moderate (20kt) and falling shear, with enormous TCHP under it (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 1243at.jpg) - the main barrier is its current poor organization and land interaction.

[lebron23]

wheres the 18z gfdl

[South Texas Storms]

Rock you still have any hope the models will shift west tonight? Or do you have any hope of us getting some rainbands this weekend?

[lebron23]

Rock you still have any hope the models will shift west tonight? Or do you have any hope of us getting some rainbands this weekend?

Not the model thread but the 18z HWRF shifted from east LA back toward west/central LA