ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BatzVI]

...MARIA NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

Ironically Luis, this is not good news. Folks are already writting Maria off with this advisory and they may be making a huge mistake. If Maria regains strenght of the likes of Irene, we will have another chaotic weekend.

That is right, Many will go to the beaches,to music festivals and more activities this weekend. That is why I would like to have a TS warning for PR to see if by having that ,the people see the reallity about what may transpire.

And the VI....TS Watch/Warning definitely needed...pretty stormy here right now...

[tobol.7uno]

About 840 miles to go...

[Meteorcane]

Euro should still recurve east of the CONUS I don't see how it couldn't.

[Aric Dunn]

12z euro showing more ridging... 72 hrs on top of PR.. barely there though.

Yeah but it may be getting ready to bomb out once it moves away from the islands....we'll see.

comes back a little at 96 hours and that ridging is strong to ... if the ridge in the next 24hours does not disappears could go through the straights.

[painkillerr]

...MARIA NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

Ironically Luis, this is not good news. Folks are already writting Maria off with this advisory and they may be making a huge mistake. If Maria regains strenght of the likes of Irene, we will have another chaotic weekend.

That is right, Many will go to the beaches,to music festivals and more activities this weekend. That is why I would like to have a TS warning for PR to see if by having that ,the people see the reallity about what may transpire.

I hope the NHC will put a TS watch at 5:00pm. Probably that would help some folks to focus on Maria and the very real threat that she is.

[BatzVI]

...MARIA NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

Ironically Luis, this is not good news. Folks are already writting Maria off with this advisory and they may be making a huge mistake. If Maria regains strenght of the likes of Irene, we will have another chaotic weekend.

That is right, Many will go to the beaches,to music festivals and more activities this weekend. That is why I would like to have a TS warning for PR to see if by having that ,the people see the reallity about what may transpire.

And the VI....TS Watch/Warning definitely needed...pretty stormy here right now...

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, Aric, the stronger ridging trend by the models today is certainly getting my attention. If the models continue this trend the next 24-36 hours, then I would say us Floridians will really have to watch Maria very closely

[gatorcane]

120 hour Euro, ridge mysteriously vanishes.....looks like it should turn northward east of the Bahamas even...we will see.

[Aric Dunn]

120 hours into SE bahamas trough moving off east coast... and gator i think it just went right along the north coast of hispaniola

[WeatherOrKnot]

Any new gut feelings Aric?

[gatorcane]

120 hours into SE bahamas trough moving off east coast... and gator i think it just went right along the north coast of hispaniola

Yeah at 120 looks like it has started a turn to the NNW on the NW Coastline of Hispaniola. Question is now does ridging build in once that trough exits out bending it back W or WNW again?

[Evil Jeremy]

Big EURO differences in this run. These frames have a 12 hour difference, but you can still see the difference.

00z run at 144 hours:
image removed by tolakram, direct linking disabled

12z run at 120 hours:
image removed by tolakram, direct linking disabled

Copy images before posting - tolakram

[cycloneye]

Pressure falling fast on bouy 41040. Has falled 11 milibars in the last hour.

[drezee]

The 120 looks like a trough split forming over the plains...The trough would lift out...this is weird...

[Aric Dunn]

either way the 00z Euro was just a one run outlier.

[Blown Away]

The 18z GFDL looks like a scud missile shot at Miami!
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

144 hours still wnw.. trough leaving a weakness but did not turn it yet.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Any chance someone canpost these models,

Seems like all the links have been cut.

[gatorcane]

144 hours still wnw.. trough leaving a weakness but did not turn it yet.

Yeah but Euro looks like it is setting up another trough over SE Canada getting ready to push down north of the Great lakes.......I would say it turns at 168 hours to the north?

[Aric Dunn]

easily see the motion has been wnw from PR to just se of andros island

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html