ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

An area just SE of the isle of youth looks interesting... about 21N 83W I'd say.

[petit_bois]

it's falling apart... again. 90L likes the morning best.

It is not falling apart....the convection blob to the SW is falling apart. Banding is improving dramatically and the LLC is coming together.

convection is subsiding in the entire core...

[cycloneye]

From 2 PM TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ANALYZED FROM
25N83W ACROSS FAR WEST CUBA TO 20N85W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA
ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS
SYSTEM HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION
AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN
79W-85W. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WNW OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD GENERATE FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER SATURATED-HIGH TERRAIN AND RIVERS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

[Ivanhater]

it's falling apart... again. 90L likes the morning best.

It is not falling apart....the convection blob to the SW is falling apart. Banding is improving dramatically and the LLC is coming together.

convection is subsiding in the entire core...

It does not have a core...look at rapid scan. A LLC is forming SE of the Isle of Youth, exactly where storms are continuing to fire

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

[TwisterFanatic]

it's falling apart... again. 90L likes the morning best.

Huh?

[tolakram]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I'm going to say LLC has formed W/SW of Isle of Youth and looks to be fairly healthy, now that some of the convection has cleared out of the way you can see the circulation and new storms firing on top of it.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

I think the NHC analysis might have been too early. This appears to be a rapidly developing system, but now the questions is does it clip Cuba and get disrupted or steer clear and into the gulf.

[vbhoutex]

Am I right in seeing a more of northwesterly track then a west-northwest movement down the line
with this system? More so if it does develope correct?

The stronger a TC gets the more likely it is to go poleward. However, that doesn't always happen. If there is a "death ridge"(as we have been experiencing)to its' North it would be a less likely to move poleward unless it was a very strong TC. If that ridge moves more East as is progged it makes it more likely that the system will ride its periphery and move more poleward. How strong 90L gets and how far East the ridge moves are the $64k questions.

[TexWx]

Personal opinion, Mexico seems like the likely spot.

Unfortunately we really, really need the rain.

[South Texas Storms]

12z euro takes it's vorticity into deep south Texas.

[Stormcenter]

I don't know about that.

it's falling apart... again. 90L likes the morning best.

[MGC]

Hardly falling apart. Convection tends to wax and wane during the initial stages of development. There is still plenty of robust convection that should sustain the MCl and a surface circulation should one develope. Looks to be tracking WNW to NW right now and should turn more westward when it reachs mid GOM. I agree, South Texas need to pay close attention to this system....MGC

[Stormcenter]

Are you basing that on the models alone or just gut feeling?

Personal opinion, Mexico seems like the likely spot.

Unfortunately we really, really need the rain.

[TwisterFanatic]

Looks to me as if 90L is expanding in size, with new towers going up over the supposed Center of Circulation.

[cycloneye]

How strong 90L gets and how far East the ridge moves are the $64k questions.

David,is all about the right timing,timing,timing....... to cause things in the atmosphere to move in a direction and develop.

[Ivanhater]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I'm going to say LLC has formed W/SW of Isle of Youth and looks to be fairly healthy, now that some of the convection has cleared out of the way you can see the circulation and new storms firing on top of it.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

I think the NHC analysis might have been too early. This appears to be a rapidly developing system, but now the questions is does it clip Cuba and get disrupted or steer clear and into the gulf.

I see it...looks robust..you can briefly see it before the new storms just fired over it......game on

[maxx9512]

Am I right in seeing a more of northwesterly track then a west-northwest movement down the line
with this system? More so if it does develope correct?

The stronger a TC gets the more likely it is to go poleward. However, that doesn't always happen. If there is a "death ridge"(as we have been experiencing)to its' North it would be a less likely to move poleward unless it was a very strong TC. If that ridge moves more East as is progged it makes it more likely that the system will ride its periphery and move more poleward. How strong 90L gets and how far East the ridge moves are the $64k questions.

Thanks VB, that's why they are calling for a break in the HOT temps but it's supposed to get hot again correct? What is a good map to see this projection on, or is it a combination of them? Sorry to ask so many questions just trying to see how movement is predicted
with systems.
Thanks for your help!

[ROCK]

the models are jacked right now...the CMC doesnt even see it down there and the GFS has been sniffing glue this entire time.

what we need is RECON data for these guys to digest then we can get a better idea.....right now FL to MX is a good bet...

[ROCK]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I'm going to say LLC has formed W/SW of Isle of Youth and looks to be fairly healthy, now that some of the convection has cleared out of the way you can see the circulation and new storms firing on top of it.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

I think the NHC analysis might have been too early. This appears to be a rapidly developing system, but now the questions is does it clip Cuba and get disrupted or steer clear and into the gulf.

I see it...looks robust..you can briefly see it before the new storms just fired over it......game on

good catch and I see it also........game on as well!

[Ivanhater]

the models are jacked right now...the CMC doesnt even see it down there and the GFS has been sniffing glue this entire time.

what we need is RECON data for these guys to digest then we can get a better idea.....right now FL to MX is a good bet...

It aint coming to Florida...it looks like it just popped out a strong LLC just SW of the Isle of Youth....a hurricane feeling the deep ridge into Texas looks good to me now that we have a LLC.

[hicksta]

As long as we can get a little rain im happy!