ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ROCK]

center? I dont see it...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

the anticyclone is not even close with 40knt shear zone to the north...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

850 Vorticity

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[ROCK]

it is elongated with less consolidation than yesterday. This could change tomorrow but attm it is disorganized clearly....

[ozonepete]

whats going BOOM? it is a mess....almost looks sheared apart. Looks worse than this morning...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

Those 3 areas of convection are growing and will most likely consolidate overnight. If you take into account the low shear and lack of the ability of the dry air north of it to intrude into it at this point, this is consolidating into a formidable tropical cyclone right on schedule. 80% now but a full TS tomorrow.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Hmm...

[ROCK]

Hmm...

wish they could have got a full pass in.....

[Evil Jeremy]

it is elongated with less consolidation than yesterday. This could change tomorrow but attm it is disorganized clearly....

Vorticity is stronger compared to 24 hours ago.

24 hours ago:


Now:


If 91L ramps up tomorrow like it did today (and it's working with stronger vorticity), we should have a system by the afternoon.

['CaneFreak]

good questions...lets address them one by one...

center? I dont see it...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

If you look where the latest centermost burst of convection has erupted near 14.0 and 50.0 or so, you will see the center I am referring to...

the anticyclone is not even close with 40knt shear zone to the north...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

The anticyclone is implied by looking at the flow surrounding the entire system...you see some southerly flow on the far western side of this image near 55 and extending northward up and around the large envelope of the system...it is weak at the present time...but still present...and the 40 knots zone is so far to the north, it is doing nothing more than improving outflow for this system...

850 Vorticity

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

and yes...it is definitely an elongated vortex...thus the reason why it is slowly developing as I have said numerous times today...thanks for asking the questions

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/2345 UTC 12.6N 48.8W T1.0/1.0 91L

[Gustywind]

[Florida1118]

100%

SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BE CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. TROPICAL
CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

[ROCK]

nice low level convergence all over the place.....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[TwisterFanatic]

Wouldn't be surprised if the NHC drops it to 80% next update. Kinda messy right now, the longer it stays like this the less likely it's pulled northward.

It's still likely to get pulled north, how much is the question.

Anyways, my guess is that they stick to 90% for continuity.

If it stays weak it won't feel the trough, and it would stay on a WNW motion, instead of a NW motion like depicted by the GFS.

[ROCK]

100%

SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BE CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. TROPICAL
CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

better safe than sorry I suppose...there is the near 100% I talked about earlier but they say in the next 48hrs

[Bobo2000]

....100%...... About the time we wake up, Tropical Depression Five.

['CaneFreak]

...and they also say...

100%

SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BE CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. TROPICAL
CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

better safe than sorry I suppose...there is the near 100% I talked about earlier but they say in the next 48hrs

[TwisterFanatic]

100%

SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BE CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. TROPICAL
CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

Haha, so much for my prediction of a drop..

[TheDreamTraveler]

100%

SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BE CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. TROPICAL
CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

better safe than sorry I suppose...there is the near 100% I talked about earlier but they say in the next 48hrs

I'm pretty sure they've just been doing this until recon gets out there, since they did the same thing with Bret and Don. I expect them to classify it or even name it tomorrow.

[hurricaneCW]

Most tropical storms and hurricanes technically recurve, unless they die out or something. When talking about a recurve, I just wish people would be more specific. There's a good chance this storm will affect several islands and that's far from being a system that affects nobody. Fish is the best term to use when the storm has no chance of affecting anybody accept the "fish". People should say a non US impact storm or a non US impact track that is more specific than simply saying the word recurve.

And yeah this invest hasn't even become a storm so people are getting way ahead of themselves.

[Florida1118]

37 pages for a almost TD, and 15 for a Super Typhoon.

[ROCK]

100%

SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BE CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. TROPICAL
CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

better safe than sorry I suppose...there is the near 100% I talked about earlier but they say in the next 48hrs

I'm pretty sure they've just been doing this until recon gets out there, since they did the same thing with Bret and Don. I expect them to classify it or even name it tomorrow.

oh I agree its going to get going at some point.....but right now it is a mess....might be a TD now but without RECON was are just going by SAT views...