ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Caribwxgirl]

Welcome Caribwxgirl to Storm2K!

Thank you

Welcome and since you are in Jamaica, please try to keep us aprised on conditions there with this system and others.
If and when there is a threat, a thread is set up in the Active Storms Forum for residents to report conditions.
It would be great if you can post there and it also gives you a chance to see how others are faring.
S2K is a wonderful resource to understand what is going on and the Pro Mets and informed amatuers are great sources for info that you might not get elsewhere
Welcome!

Thank you and thanks for the info I will go look up that forum now.

[cycloneye]

Caribwxgirl, we also have a forum for those who live in the Caribbean and Central America at USA & Caribbean Weather forum,where you can post the observations from where you are. Many Caribbean folks post their observations.Here is the link.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&start=0

[ozonepete]

What happened to RECON? They went back already? I guess I missed it.

[cycloneye]

Latest Microwave hints at something at 15.5N-75W.

[Hurricaneman]

looks like it might be starting to show a surface reflection as of now, might have to increase the chances at 8pm

[KWT]

Circulation looks good if nothing else...convection still needs abit of depth but it may well be getting there...

BUT...I hope it doesn't make it, I couldn't stand another weak TS to be honest

Sadly this has a good chance of making it 8/0/0....I suspect given the way its tightening up maybe on the higher end of the TS scale...but I'd rather surprised if it made it to hurricane strength...though conditions aren't at all bad right now.

[Caribwxgirl]

Caribwxgirl, we also have a forum for those who live in the Caribbean and Central America at USA & Caribbean Weather forum,where you can post the observations from where you are. Many Caribbean folks post their observations.Here is the link.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&start=0

Thanks

[ozonepete]

Still looks like COC will slide just north of Honduras. That would significantly increase the odds that this makes hurricane, provided it makes TS by late tomorrow or early Friday.

[FireRat]

Exactly when is this system supposed to hit CA?

[KWT]

Yeah it would, from 0% to something like 10%...which for an invest which hasn't got *that* much time over water is probably a little agressive of me

Looks like its well on its way, may well become our next TD some point tomorrow, then its really a race against time...

I hope this either stays a TD or bombs into a hurricane...I just can't stand to see 8/0/0...

[ozonepete]

Exactly when is this system supposed to hit CA?

Most models have Friday afternoon, roughly. If it goes a little north of west and heads for Yucatan, it's 72 hours or Saturday afternoon.

[KWT]

Still looks like COC will slide just north of Honduras. That would significantly increase the odds that this makes hurricane, provided it makes TS by late tomorrow or early Friday.

IF (big IF this season so far!) it carries on like it is I suspect it has a good chance of being upgraded tomorrow.

[ozonepete]

Yeah, exactly. I'm still pretty sure that we are going to see some pretty bad storms soon. So far, almost every system that could develop HAS developed. That's a dangersous precedent as we go into the heart of the season when conditions for more intense storms become more common.

[Gustywind]

Hi,

I'm new here and really am not very weather savvy so please excuse me if I ask any "silly" questions Can you say if given how this system looks now Jamaica will be in very strong winds and extremely heavy rains by today or tomorrow? Since that's my neck of the woods I am just wondering...also is there any chance do you think that it may be significantly more than a TW when it gets closer to us?

Thank you

Hi there and welcome! Right now it looks like this is still developing VERY slowly, it's moving quite fast, and will pass well south of you. It probably won't even make depression or TS until tomorrow sometime, when it will be moving away from you. That means you should have rain squalls tonight and tomorrow with some strong wind gusts possible, but nothing that strong. But of course in your area you always have to worry about heavy rain squalls in the mountainous areas causing mud slides so you have to be watchful of the occasional heavy showers. But overall it doesn't seem you will get anything too bad from it.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thanks Phil...and you are right its the landslides that really get us most of the time even when we hear the system is not going to be near to us, like Emily for instance we got a good bit of rain lightning and thunder even though it wasn't supposed to affect us. Just last year and the year before we had similar forecasts and ended up with countless flood related damages.

Be welcomed my carib friend . Have a good time here ; Let's board, Flight Storm2K is ready for departure, please secure your seatbelts, we invite you !

[westwind]

pressures have started dropping in the area.
both buoys 42058 (which the centre passed earlier today) and 42057 (which L93 will approach if it takes a WNW track) are showing larger than usual pressure drops for this time of day. Dose this mean an LLC is forming?
buoy 42058 shows a pressure of 1009.4mb and falling, pressures should start rising soon lets see if the happens.

[cycloneye]

60%

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT FIND A
CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS
ALONG THE COAST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[ozonepete]

Put my money in on it. Convection is increasing again as it goes into the nocturnal DMax. This may be the first night it increases convection as it should normally do at night. It probably hasn't before this due to dry air, but that seems to be becoming less of a problem. And it still looks to me as if the center will pass north of Honduras, in which case this has a good shot at first hurricane of the season.

[KWT]

Yeah looking good for development now, not sure its going to have time however to become hurricane, once it gets right up close to Honduras north coast (I agree it'll miss...JUST) on its way to maybe the far south Belize any strengthening should be pegged back and maybe with only some modest development, pretty much only giving it 36-48hrs window of real good strengthening....could be enough if it really sets off but I'd for now bet against it...

Think if it does develop 50-60kts sounds good given pretty decent upper level conditions.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 93, 2011081800, , BEST, 0, 153N, 765W, 25, 1009, DB

[AHS2011]

Anyone thinking T.D. by tomorrow morning?