ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

I would not be the least surprised to see center relocations during this period while TD 13 is in its disorganized state currently.

[maxintensity]

Euro has landfall tuesday afternoon, NHC says saturday at 1pm. This will be very interesting to see if the Euro can outperform the NHC. They've butted heads before and the euro has held it's own in the past.

[kedekat_2]

wow~ that goes just the other side of Vermilion Bay! Thats really close to me! Glad its not supposed to be any stronger!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

ROCK and I hope it does bring ya'll some much needed relief. I know how it feels I lost a lot of money thru may and june due to the major drought we were in over here at that time. Heck I lost over $500 today because my three big customers cancelled because their yards were fried and didn't need cutting. Anyway based my previous comments on this...

THE NHC TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

Also by having it go inland by saturday, although don't necessarily agree with it though. Think it is way to fast. If they were going off the GFS it would be sitting off our coast for 4-5 days then move NE into MS mid next week.

BTW I'm in your Euro camp more than any other. Think pretty much most models are useless beyond 2-3 days at most anyway.

[South Texas Storms]

Rock you still have any hope the models will shift west tonight? Or do you have any hope of us getting some rainbands this weekend?

Does anyone know if tonight's 0z models will have the recon data in them?

[lebron23]

GFDL 18Z in same general area about .1 to the west

[Ixolib]

Euro has landfall tuesday afternoon, NHC says saturday at 1pm. This will be very interesting to see if the Euro can outperform the NHC. They've butted heads before and the euro has held it's own in the past.

In the outcome of the past head butting, which one proved to be more accurate??

[Tireman4]

Euro has landfall tuesday afternoon, NHC says saturday at 1pm. This will be very interesting to see if the Euro can outperform the NHC. They've butted heads before and the euro has held it's own in the past.

In the outcome of the past head butting, which one proved to be more accurate??

XTRP...ha ha ...back OT!!!

[South Texas Storms]

What would make TD 13 more likely to miss the trough and start heading SW like previous models showed? Would it be more likely to do that if it was weaker? If it had a center relocation to the heaviest convection (to the SE)? I'm just trying to look for hope for us parched Texans...

[KWT]

what are the odds of this thing going under RI?

It's under moderate (20kt) and falling shear, with enormous TCHP under it (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 1243at.jpg) - the main barrier is its current poor organization and land interaction.

If the system takes the NHC it'll probably not quite have enough time to make the most of the high SST's, even if shear winds down in 12hrs time to a great degree, it'll still take a good 12-18hrs to really develop a inner core from where it is, which wouldn't leave it much time or space to ramp up, esp as its large system.

[SunnyThoughts]

[ConvergenceZone]

what are the odds of this thing going under RI?

RI won't occur. The latest NHC discussion mentions that strengthening will be slow due to the really large circulation of the system.

[SunnyThoughts]

http://www.wwl.com/Gov--Jindal-declares-state-of-emergency/10796654Jindal declares state of emergency ahead of #13 Probably right in doing so considering the fact the graph I posted above shows 24 inches of rain to fall in his state. pheww Good luck everybody

[HurricaneBrain]

Good to see the TVCN at a left outlier!

[underthwx]

tricky system...center could reform under the deeper convection...could it not?

[northjaxpro]

tricky system...center could reform under the deeper convection...could it not?

Yes, that is a possibility.

[Ptarmigan]

tricky system...center could reform under the deeper convection...could it not?

Yes, it can. Tropical depressions and tropical storms have centers reforming.

[~FlipFlopGirl~]

ROCK and I hope it does bring ya'll some much needed relief. I know how it feels I lost a lot of money thru may and june due to the major drought we were in over here at that time. Heck I lost over $500 today because my three big customers cancelled because their yards were fried and didn't need cutting. Anyway based my previous comments on this...

THE NHC TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

Also by having it go inland by saturday, although don't necessarily agree with it though. Think it is way to fast. If they were going off the GFS it would be sitting off our coast for 4-5 days then move NE into MS mid next week.

BTW I'm in your Euro camp more than any other. Think pretty much most models are useless beyond 2-3 days at most anyway.

Very discouraged!! I was hoping atleast to get alittle rain in central texas- $400 electrical bill and $240 water bill- this the hottest and expensive summer ever

[maxintensity]

Euro has landfall tuesday afternoon, NHC says saturday at 1pm. This will be very interesting to see if the Euro can outperform the NHC. They've butted heads before and the euro has held it's own in the past.

In the outcome of the past head butting, which one proved to be more accurate??

In 2010, ECWMF beat the NHC scientists at 24, 36, 48, 72, and 96 hours. At 96 hours the Euro had an error of 160 miles vs 175 for NHC.

[Javlin]

[/quote]Very discouraged!! I was hoping atleast to get alittle rain in central texas- $400 electrical bill and $240 water bill- this the hottest and expensive summer ever[/quote]


I hear ya brother had three months of those till this month (280E/180W) no saving money this summer.