ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Meteorcane]

The Euro shifts slightly west might impact bahamas this run.

[gatorcane]

The Euro shifts slightly west might impact bahamas this run.

12Z GFDL looks like it would blow over South Florida, not something we want to see here.

144 hour Euro its already passing the SE Bahamas moving WNW towards Andros Island off Miami

[Aric Dunn]

144 hours still wnw.. trough leaving a weakness but did not turn it yet.

Yeah but Euro looks like it is setting up another trough over SE Canada getting ready to push down north of the Great lakes.......I would say it turns at 168 hours to the north?

probably but is it a gradual or a sharp turn.. means a lot for Florida.. it is also now getting to far out though.. but a huge shift back west. similar to its runs from a couple days ago.

[Meteorcane]

The Euro shifts slightly west might impact bahamas this run.

12Z GFDL looks like it would blow over South Florida, not something we want to see here.

Yeah that run is concerning to say the least, as if it takes the track that would lead to it being the strongest (as opposed to say an island run). But as you mentioned earlier the GFDL has been a west outlier this season it seems so we have that going for us. Although maybe ridging may be trying to make a comeback as evidenced in these latest runs.

[Aric Dunn]

The Euro shifts slightly west might impact bahamas this run.

12Z GFDL looks like it would blow over South Florida, not something we want to see here.

144 hour Euro its already passing the SE Bahamas moving WNW towards Andros Island off Miami

actually the Euro and GFDL are almost identical right now. GFDL is a little faster but track wise is not far off .. along with Ukmet.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF 168 hours gaining strength and turning gradually, towards SE Florida, may miss but will be a close call. Okay now it has my attention...

[Extratropical94]

And another one coming in.
Observation 09 - 06 thru 08 are missing.

URNT15 KNHC 081836
AF306 0114A MARIA HDOB 09 20110908
182630 1527N 05943W 3144 09336 0484 -295 //// 254006 007 023 001 01
182700 1526N 05940W 3144 09330 0486 -295 //// 231005 005 023 001 01
182730 1525N 05937W 3146 09326 0485 -293 //// 214003 004 024 001 05
182800 1525N 05934W 3146 09330 0485 -290 //// 194006 006 022 001 01
182830 1524N 05931W 3144 09331 0485 -290 //// 192006 007 023 000 01
182900 1524N 05929W 3147 09324 0483 -289 //// 198009 010 021 001 01
182930 1523N 05926W 3146 09327 0486 -290 //// 194010 010 023 001 01
183000 1522N 05923W 3146 09330 0485 -290 //// 183011 011 023 001 01
183030 1522N 05920W 3146 09326 0485 -290 //// 186011 012 024 001 01
183100 1521N 05918W 3146 09328 0486 -290 //// 191012 012 023 002 01
183130 1521N 05915W 3146 09327 0486 -287 //// 194010 010 023 001 01
183200 1520N 05912W 3144 09328 0486 -290 //// 198012 012 025 000 01
183230 1520N 05909W 3146 09323 0486 -290 //// 198012 013 024 000 01
183300 1519N 05907W 3147 09328 0485 -290 //// 202013 013 023 001 01
183330 1519N 05904W 3146 09330 0487 -290 //// 201013 013 023 001 01
183400 1518N 05901W 3143 09341 0488 -290 //// 195014 014 023 000 01
183430 1517N 05858W 3146 09336 0487 -290 //// 195015 016 022 000 01
183500 1517N 05856W 3142 09341 0487 -292 //// 192016 016 021 001 01
183530 1516N 05853W 3146 09332 0487 -292 //// 191015 016 021 000 01
183600 1516N 05850W 3145 09336 0486 -295 //// 189017 018 021 001 01
$$

[tolakram]

New burst of convection near center.

saved image

[Aric Dunn]

12Z ECMWF 168 hours gaining strength and turning gradually, towards SE Florida, may miss but will be a close call. Okay now it has my attention...

dont think thats a turn.. its at the SE tip of Andros... watch the loop that trough over canada looks like it shifted west whic is odd ??? and the ridging as well..

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 168 hours Andros Island, Bahamas:

[Meteorcane]

This situation seems to have changed a lot in the last couple of days. Maria staying quite weak, and apparently a somewhat more substantial ridge has changed the model runs drastically. Granted we are still some time away so I guess they could change back (or could shift they shift even farthest west?) to an eastern solution. But, yeah certainly looking more concerning than say 2 days ago.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Still a TS.

AL, 14, 2011090818, , BEST, 0, 131N, 518W, 35, 1006, TS

[rockyman]

It's becoming more and more apparent that a "Nate CONUS miss" will mean a "Maria CONUS hit or near miss"

[gatorcane]

Looking at the 12Z models, its quite possible we will see another west shift today with the NHC track, given the GFDL and ECMWF have shiftted as well as the UKMET model.

[jlauderdal]

12Z ECMWF 168 hours gaining strength and turning gradually, towards SE Florida, may miss but will be a close call. Okay now it has my attention...

when the euro talks we listen

[SuperLikeNintendo]

It's becoming more and more apparent that a "Nate CONUS miss" will mean a "Maria CONUS hit or near miss"

Which is which though?

[jhpigott]

not a lot of wiggle room for SE FL if Maria makes it to Andros . . .

[tobol.7uno]

about 600 miles to go...

[gatorcane]

Should be a very interesting discussion from NHC at 5pmEST given what is happening with the models today.

[tobol.7uno]

I think we may see the recon declare this system a remnant low based on this image...