WPAC: MEARI [Falcon] - Remnants

#121 Postby **oaba09** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 11:41 pm

supercane wrote:oaba09, the shading on that ECMWF graphic shows wind speeds at the 850-mb level, not rain, although they probably accompany each other.

Thanks for the clarification!

#122 Postby **oaba09** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 11:53 pm

I'm having a tough time determining the center of this system because of the broad circulation...Can any of the experts here help me out?

Thanks!

#123 Postby **StormingB81** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 12:18 am

Funny looking at all the models they go from hitting tawain to going EAST of Okinawa...Gonna be an interesting few days see what this one wants to do

#124 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 12:49 am

My honest thoughts is that it will go east of Taiwan, yet not as far as Okinawa. Just my opinion though.

I think the CMC model is handling it the best to be honest. At least on the most recent run.

#125 Postby **StormingB81** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 12:53 am

On that FSU MET page besides that one..one hits tawait one comes over okinawa one misses okinawa just to the west and one misses okinawa just to the east...

#126 Postby **StormingB81** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 12:55 am

GFS and nogaps joined in on bringing it right over okinawa..so we shall see

and JTWC has it hitting tawain but I always like to wait till 1 to 2 days after initial post thats when I feel you get the best track then..however with this storm in 2 days it will be on the door step..lol

#127 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 1:04 am

Ya model analysis after 48hours seems to be scattered, Overall though I think the westpac high will remain a driving force on this storm keeping it West, hopfully that is the case as it will spare okinawa.

#128 Postby **oaba09** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 1:07 am

Steering layer:

drdavisjr · #129 Postby **drdavisjr** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 1:16 am

Is anyone except me surprised at how far west this system seems to be moving?

#130 Postby **oaba09** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 1:19 am

drdavisjr wrote:Is anyone except me surprised at how far west this system seems to be moving?

It looks like it's moving west but it's really tough to say because it's hard to determine the center....The circulation is also quite broad

euro6208 · #131 Postby **euro6208** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 1:31 am

ahh, the west pacific does it again. Although I'm used to watching storms this large in the west pacific, I am still amazed by how large they get. I think that once this storm consolidates further, a period of rapid intensification might occur. I won't be surprised if this develops to a category 4 typhoon in the next few days.

Next name: Meari- It (Echo) means that once Typhoon forms, the Typhoon Committee's notification echoes over to its members.

drdavisjr · #132 Postby **drdavisjr** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 1:48 am

oaba09 wrote:It looks like it's moving west but it's really tough to say because it's hard to determine the center....The circulation is also quite broad

I think this shows the center pretty well.

#133 Postby **oaba09** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 2:01 am

drdavisjr wrote:
oaba09 wrote:It looks like it's moving west but it's really tough to say because it's hard to determine the center....The circulation is also quite broad

I think this shows the center pretty well.

Thanks!

dexterlabio · #134 Postby **dexterlabio** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 2:06 am

I believe PAGASA has the track to the east most in align with NOGAPS. :lol:

From what I've been watching on the local news, it was said that this storm won't affect any parts of the country except for some monsoon inducement. I wish the local agency's forecast will turn out right, or else people out here will start complaining again just like the frenzy caused by PAGASA's Songda track. :roll:

Is it just me or the circulation just got bigger? :eek:

dexterlabio · #135 Postby **dexterlabio** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 2:12 am

And the local name for this storm is actually kinda fierce.....what can anybody think of when a Falcon strikes :lol:

drdavisjr · #136 Postby **drdavisjr** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 2:18 am

oaba09 wrote:Thanks!

You're welcome.

dexterlabio wrote:Is it just me or the circulation just got bigger?

Yes, it really blew up...

#137 Postby **oaba09** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 2:20 am

dexterlabio wrote:I believe PAGASA has the track to the east most in align with NOGAPS. From what I've been watching on the local news, it was said that this storm won't affect any parts of the country except for some monsoon inducement. I wish the local agency's forecast will turn out right, or else people out here will start complaining again just like the frenzy caused by PAGASA's Songda track.

Is it just me or the circulation just got bigger?

PAGASA is usually late when it comes to updating their track so I'm not really surprised...There are also still some models that's predicting a track much closer to okinawa...

phwxenthusiast · #138 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 2:27 am

now TS Meari by JMA...

#139 Postby **StormingB81** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 2:36 am

SO what is everyone elses opinion..3 of the 5 show very close to Okinawa..to JTWC hitting tawain.....and this isnt to say right or wrong or for people to take these as it will happend I jus twant to know what people think and what they believe the storm will do...I am biting with the majority and saying it wil lbe closer to Okinawa then Tawain and from what I saw from the models. Like I said I believe tomorrow night timeframe nto friday morning we will have an agreement on all of what track they forecast

#140 Postby **StormingB81** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 2:39 am

And it looks like it is really getting its act together now... starting to look good...you know songda was the same way they said she was gong to be weak and she grew int oa very powerful storm..about the same spot too

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