EPAC: DORA - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

Dora has to be a hurricane by now.

[HURAKAN]

Dora has to be a hurricane by now.

Most likely

[Ivanhater]

Forecast is now up to 125 mph. That is very impressive! Bret seems to be getting all of the attention right now, but I think Dora is a far more interesting system.

Weak TS in atlantic always gets more attention then a cat 5 in the pacific.

Bret should not, it a weak epic fail right now. I don't get why people don't like tracking powerful hurricanes that go out to sea in the EPAC, and like track borderline fishspinners that are weak TS's in the Atlantic.

Because it is in people's back yard...that's why. People are on this forum for many different reason's. You have your's, they have their own....move on.

[Kingarabian]

It's only natural that people pay more attention to Atlantic storms since the majority either live in the Caribbean or mainland USA.

[Yellow Evan]

It's almost adv time Ill go with 65 ktns.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2011

DORA IS CLOSE TO BECOMING A HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE
OCCASIONALLY SHOWED AN EYE TRYING TO FORM DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES ANY INNER CORE REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. SINCE THERE ARE NO ESTIMATES OF THIS SYSTEM AS A
HURRICANE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THERE IS PLENTY OF HIGH SSTS AND LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS IN ITS
PATH. RAPID INTENSIFICATION REMAINS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...
ESPECIALLY IF THE INNER CORE CAN BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THE NHC
WIND SPEED FORECAST REMAINS AT THE UPPER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
SUITE...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE GFDL MODEL PREDICTION. IN ABOUT
THREE DAYS...DORA SHOULD REACH COOLER WATER...AND A RAPID WEAKENING
IS LIKELY.

VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF DORA WAS A BIT FARTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...RESULTING IN AN INITIAL MOTION OF
295/15...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BASICALLY MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK MODELS IS
VERY SMALL DURING THAT TIME AS THE STEERING CURRENTS AROUND A RIDGE
OVER NORTH AMERICA REMAIN STRONG. AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE
SHOULD WEAKEN AND SLIDE EASTWARD DUE TO A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS...UKMET AND
HWRF...SHOW DORA AS A THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE LONG RANGE.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE CYCLONE OFFSHORE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT...MOSTLY
DUE TO THE CENTER REPOSITIONING...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN THE LONG RANGE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES SUGGEST SOME
CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO AS DORA PASSES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE CENTER WELL OFFSHORE...A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 12.8N 98.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 13.7N 100.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 14.9N 103.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 16.1N 105.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 17.1N 106.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 19.1N 109.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 21.0N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[plasticup]

I don't get it. CDO and a ragged eye yields a Dvorak T-number of 4.0-4.5, which is Cat 1. What am I missing?

[Macrocane]

Same question here, if this system was in the Atlantic it should've been already a hurricane, anyway its structure has not changed that much from this morning so keeping the same intensity is understandable.

[supercane]

I don't get it. CDO and a ragged eye yields a Dvorak T-number of 4.0-4.5, which is Cat 1. What am I missing?

:uarrow: Same question here, if this system was in the Atlantic it should've been already a hurricane, anyway its structure has not changed that much from this morning so keeping the same intensity is understandable.

No mysteries here. NHC answered the question directly in the discussion:
ORA IS CLOSE TO BECOMING A HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE
OCCASIONALLY SHOWED AN EYE TRYING TO FORM DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES ANY INNER CORE REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. SINCE THERE ARE NO ESTIMATES OF THIS SYSTEM AS A
HURRICANE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT.
You can view the Dvorak intensity estimates from the fix file from the ATCF. As shown below, both SAB and TAFB had Dvorak intensity estimates at around the analysis time (18Z) of 3.5, corresponding to 55kt:
EP, 04, 201107191745, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1240N, 9780W, , 2, 55, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, GS, VI, 3, 3535 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT=3.5 BO CBND MET=3.5 PT=3.5 FTBO DT
EP, 04, 201107191745, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1250N, 9790W, , 2, 55, 2, 994, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, DM, VI, 3, 3535 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, CSC PSN BSD ON SPIRAL BAND CURVATURE WRAPS COMPLETEL
Even the UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) is still at a final T number of 3.5 (http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt04E.html)

[KWT]

Yeah that makes sense, I'm a little surprised this isn't a hurricane yet but the data is pretty conclusive in terms of Sat.estimates.

[supercane]

Best track shows hurricane at 00Z:
EP, 04, 2011072000, , BEST, 0, 131N, 993W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 20, 1010, 180, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DORA, D,
Latest microwave shows developing eyewall:

Latest SAB Dvorak estimate is at 4.0/65kt:
EP, 04, 201107192315, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1310N, 9920W, , 1, 65, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, JN, VI, 1, 4040 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=4.0 BO EYE MET=4.0 PT=4.0 FTBO DT

[Battlebrick]

I believe this is more than 65kts based on satellite presentation.

[cycloneye]

SHIP at 00:00z peaks intensity at 89kts.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 200032
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC WED JUL 20 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DORA (EP042011) 20110720 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110720  0000   110720  1200   110721  0000   110721  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.1N  99.3W   14.4N 101.5W   15.5N 103.2W   16.8N 104.7W
BAMD    13.1N  99.3W   14.3N 101.7W   15.8N 103.7W   17.1N 105.2W
BAMM    13.1N  99.3W   14.4N 101.8W   15.9N 103.8W   17.3N 105.3W
LBAR    13.1N  99.3W   14.5N 101.8W   16.0N 104.4W   17.4N 106.5W
SHIP        65KTS          75KTS          82KTS          87KTS
DSHP        65KTS          75KTS          82KTS          87KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110722  0000   110723  0000   110724  0000   110725  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.2N 105.8W   21.3N 108.0W   24.1N 111.1W   26.5N 114.8W
BAMD    18.2N 106.3W   19.6N 107.5W   21.0N 109.5W   22.8N 112.9W
BAMM    18.7N 106.4W   20.9N 107.9W   22.9N 110.9W   24.6N 115.0W
LBAR    18.8N 108.4W   21.5N 111.0W   24.9N 113.1W   28.6N 114.7W
SHIP        89KTS          79KTS          60KTS          37KTS
DSHP        89KTS          79KTS          60KTS          37KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.1N LONCUR =  99.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  11.8N LONM12 =  96.4W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  10.9N LONM24 =  93.7W
WNDCUR =   65KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   55KT
CENPRS =  987MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  110NM RD34SE =  110NM RD34SW =   70NM RD34NW = 110NM
 


[cycloneye]

Nice loop of Dora and it's eye.

[cycloneye]

brunota2003, what do you think of this 38% of RI?

Code: Select all

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    38% is   3.2 times the sample mean(11.7%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    30% is   3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    23% is   4.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    18% is   4.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)



[Yellow Evan]

RBT now has Dora cane at last!

[HURAKAN]

latest microwave

[HURAKAN]

19/2315 UTC 13.1N 99.2W T4.0/4.0 DORA -- East Pacific

65 knots

[brunota2003]

brunota2003, what do you think of this 38% of RI?

Code: Select all

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    38% is   3.2 times the sample mean(11.7%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    30% is   3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    23% is   4.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    18% is   4.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)



Honestly, I am surprised it has not already started to RI. The inner core took longer to pull together than I thought it would. But, from2 pm PDT yesterday to 2 pm PDT today, the winds did increase 20 knots. This brief pause was mostly due to the inner core pulling itself together, but now that it has (and the conditions seem pretty good), that 38% for a 25 knot increase is probably closer to 60% or 70%.

[brunota2003]

Just a couple thoughts.