ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[South Texas Storms]

Based on the looks of it right now, I don't think dry air is much of a problem to this system anymore.

[TexasF6]

Please please please come to TEXAS!!! we need a flood....otherwise this drought will continue and our farms and everything else will wilt and perish......models lookin good, but the intensity will be worrisome if the predictions holdout...

[SunnyThoughts]

Looks a lot better than I thought it would today.

I agree. Looks to be on its way. I certainly hope it doesn't cause any major problems to anyone. I'm just glad this isn't happening 3 weeks later, ( My daughter is set to get married on Aug. 20th at the beach) lol Here's to hoping mother nature lets it go off without a hitch. (Trust me, I gave her a good dressing down about the date being in the heart of cane season.)

[Florida1118]

If I were you guys Id be happy with anything up to a Cat 2.

[MississippiWx]

To me, it looks like banding is trying to form. I'm noticing on visible that the clouds surrounding 90L are starting to be influenced more and more by its circulation.

[cycloneye]

Based on the looks of it right now, I don't think dry air is much of a problem to this system anymore.

As I said this morning,the moisture ahead of the wave axis in the form of those popcorn showers has mixed up the dry air.

[KWT]

ECM takes it to Texas, system still goes north of the islands but ends up being forced westwards through the gulf.

Nothing too strong but enough vorticity to suggest it might be a close call...

[Ivanhater]

ECM takes it to Texas, system still goes north of the islands but ends up being forced westwards through the gulf.

Nothing too strong but enough vorticity to suggest it might be a close call...

By 96 hours on the 12z Euro, it is a borderline TC

[KWT]

Yeah KWT the Euro is forecasting a landfall of pretty much where Dolly made landfall back in 2008. I think this could be pretty similar to Dolly.

Looks increasingly probable that this system will go through the islands and at least struggle to develop....however it is worth while remembering that Fay actually formed over the Caribbean islands and if the forcing is strong enough there is nothing tio say 90L won't be able to develop even if it takes the long track overland instead.

[KWT]

First part of the run looks like Bonnie with it developing near the Bahamas and then weakening somewhat as it moves into the gulf.

Will be interesting to see the comprasions between the two systems...

[bamajammer4eva]

With the way the models have been this year so far, I think it may be safe to consider an 850 vort area a possible TC. No model has closed off an actual low in advance of the 3 storms so far like they usually do.

[Ivanhater]

With the way the models have been this year so far, I think it may be safe to consider an 850 vort area a possible TC. No model has closed off an actual low in advance of the 3 storms so far like they usually do.

The vorticity right now is already much stronger than any of the models have initialized at.

[cycloneye]

The authorities here in Puerto Rico are watching the situation about this system and will have a meeting this evening to decide what plans of action will be implemented if the system intensifies and make plans about the flooding.

[ronjon]

12z Euro - through S FL and on to Tx.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html

[pricetag56]

looking at the wave theres clearly a circulation forming with bands models really cant be looked into that much when you deal with nature

[bamajammer4eva]

Might be right on time?

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
1st impact storm on US coast should occur between Aug 1-15 as pattern means are heading right for it. August should be busy month in close

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
JMA and Euro going right to pattern that would suggest such things. Aug of 2008 was busy also for storms that eventually impacted coast

[KWT]

To me, it looks like banding is trying to form. I'm noticing on visible that the clouds surrounding 90L are starting to be influenced more and more by its circulation.

Yeah does look like perhaps some weak banding is trying to get going looking at the vis.loops.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro - through S FL and on to Tx.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html

IMO, the trough that was supposed to bring some heat relief to the NE next week may not be a strong as predicted and the result is the high pressure building in sooner and pushing 90L west. IMO we will see the models continue trending S unless in the short term 90L deepens sooner and gets tugged a little N.

[Blown Away]

With the way the models have been this year so far, I think it may be safe to consider an 850 vort area a possible TC. No model has closed off an actual low in advance of the 3 storms so far like they usually do.

The vorticity right now is already much stronger than any of the models have initialized at.

90L seems embedded in deep E flow, not sure if the vorticity strength will have much influence on track for next few days.

[South Texas Storms]

Please please please come to TEXAS!!! we need a flood....otherwise this drought will continue and our farms and everything else will wilt and perish......models lookin good, but the intensity will be worrisome if the predictions holdout...

I feel exactly like you do! We have to get a flood from a tropical system to end our awful historic drought and why not it be this system! I also agree with you Florida as I would take anything up to a Category 2 storm.