ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Gustywind]

What are the latest estimations Cycloneye, the best track?

Gusty, no best track updates have been released this morning.

Ok thanks but that's a bit surprising, no?

[Macrocane]

I don't think the MJO will have much influence in the activity this year, as its signal has been pretty weak most of the time anyway it could help a little but not as much as we saw in 2008. A weak MJO doesn't mean an inactive or active Atlantic season, look at las year MJO was pretty much the same as this year and it was a very active season.

[Kory]

What are the latest estimations Cycloneye, the best track?

Gusty, no best track updates have been released this morning.

Ok thanks but that's a bit surprising, no?

Hmm not really...there is very little in the way of convection with this system.

[cycloneye]

The predict team is talking today of a possible merger between this wave and wave that is close behind.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P14L.html

P14L
12N, 21W
700 hPa

The story of a single, easily-tracked pouch is gone!

ECMWF: P14L is stationary just off the coast of Africa as another weak wave approaches from the east. P14L and the other wave/pouch (I have never tracked this eastern wave/pouch) merge during Day 2. Then this merged pouch, which I continue to call P14L, initially moves northwestward, but then it moves southwestward and dissipates after 96 hours. Meanwhile, two other pouches are depicted later in the forecast period. (1) An area of elevated and OW values to the southeast of P14L, and (2) A small 700-hPa pouch moves from the subtropics toward the southwest ahead of/west of P14L. This pouch develops and then moves westward toward the Caribbean. (I have always thought that 2010's Matthew had similar origins, so this potential pouch needs monitoring.)

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, except that after the merger, P14L moves northwestward into the subtropical ridge and dissipates. GFS also depicts the eventual tropical pouch to the southeast as well as the subtropical pouch that moves into the Caribbean.

UKMET: Similar to GFS, with an early merger, motion into and dissipation in the subtropical ridge, and even the development of another 700-hPa subtropical development to the west.

NOGAPS: Outlier!! Like other models, NOGAPS hints at an early merger, although the presence of the other wave/pouch is not so obvious in the fields. However, NOGAPS does not move P14L northwestward, but rather, moves westward, but with a somewhat erratic track. P14L is elongated zonally, so it appears to be just part of the ITCZ.

HWRF-GEN: (No data)

ECMWF -5.0 v700 & RH 96h
GFS -5.8 v700 84h
UKMET -5.8 v700 & RH 96h
NOGAPS -4.3 v700 120h
HWGEN ---- v700 ---h

[Jevo]

The predict team is talking today of a possible merger between this wave and wave that is close behind.

Nothing like a good merger to keep the tropical Atlantic in line.. We can't have all these rogue tropical waves out there being all sneaky like.. coming into you house when you're not there and stealing your shoes and eating your snacks.. No! we just can't have that!

Wait.. what was I talkign about...

oh

[SETXPTNeches]

I think that the pattern will change - the ridge will move out - but it may take the transition toward fall in the first few weeks of September to open up the NW Gulf.

I sure hope for all of you in TX that it changes eventually, you may not need a hurricane but you desperate need the rains from a tropical system.

Ditto. Hopefully, Texas will get a reprieve soon. They are in a desperate drought situation.

This has sparked another question...if 92L or any other storm that develops after this one, if it is a strong or powerful storm, is the ridge strong enough to still protect us? I just want to make sure I am paying attention when I am supposed to.

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS keeps it very weak across the Atlantic, begins developing near windward islands, take strengthening system across Caribbean to Yucatan, then across BOC to Mexico.

[cycloneye]

12Z GFS keeps it very weak across the Atlantic, begins developing near windward islands, take strengthening system across Caribbean to Yucatan, then across BOC to Mexico.

12z GFS Loop

[ROCK]

oh I agree that the weakness it there in the NE GOM currently and even seen in the not to la la land GFS runs. However to predict that the ridge will remain in place 2 weeks from now is a bit of a stretch. The ridge did break a few weeks ago and allowed some much needed rain prior to Don via some nice sea breeze storms. So it does happen....odds are it wont but never say never. It wouldnt take much to open the door to the NGOM, IMO..

I guess no one saw the 06z GFS...

[SoupBone]

I think that the pattern will change - the ridge will move out - but it may take the transition toward fall in the first few weeks of September to open up the NW Gulf.

I sure hope for all of you in TX that it changes eventually, you may not need a hurricane but you desperate need the rains from a tropical system.

How's Orlando doing right now in terms of drought conditions?

[cycloneye]

Rip for now 92L!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al922011.ren
FSTDA
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201108081731
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NOTIFY=ATRP

[ROCK]

oh no....now what do we watch? game over...

[northjaxpro]

SFLcane earlier on the thread posted the image of the high amount of SAL across the Atlantic Basin right now.

I have to say that I am not surprised to see 92L get deactivated right now. Anything out there trying to develop is either ingesting too much dry air or getting sheared apart right now. We may not have anything organized to track for at least a week or so.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is back to developing it. Reaches the eastern Caribbean late on the 15th, becomes a hurricane in the Caribbean, clips the northern Yucatan, ridge over TX/LA shoves it west to near Tampico with landfall on the 22nd.

[Nikki]

12Z GFS is back to developing it. Reaches the eastern Caribbean late on the 15th, becomes a hurricane in the Caribbean, clips the northern Yucatan, ridge over TX/LA shoves it west to near Tampico with landfall on the 22nd.

Thank you wxman57, as always informative and on time! I guess those in South East Texas will have to do rain dances for some rain!

[Kory]

12Z GFS is back to developing it. Reaches the eastern Caribbean late on the 15th, becomes a hurricane in the Caribbean, clips the northern Yucatan, ridge over TX/LA shoves it west to near Tampico with landfall on the 22nd.

It looks like the ridge starts shifting to the east and positions itself more over the SE US instead of Texas. As the system comes around the western edge of the high pressure, it may erode the ridge a bit more and try to come northward a bit faster.


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[CronkPSU]

I think that the pattern will change - the ridge will move out - but it may take the transition toward fall in the first few weeks of September to open up the NW Gulf.

I sure hope for all of you in TX that it changes eventually, you may not need a hurricane but you desperate need the rains from a tropical system.

How's Orlando doing right now in terms of drought conditions?

not too bad, much better than south Florida and light years better than Texas

[Aric Dunn]

Slowly getting better organized... about another 24hours we should start to see decent convection building and things slowly starting to come together.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater

[underthwx]

tried the sfwmd models page....not showing 92L..do they not have it posted yet?

[cycloneye]

tried the sfwmd models page....not showing 92L..do they not have it posted yet?

The invest was deactivated earlier this afternoon and that is why you dont see 92L there.