ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#121 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:09 pm

12Z GFDL...Caribbean bound

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#122 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:21 pm

IVANHATER, what' your take on 93L? I know earlier this morning the mood seemed to be "recurve" due to a repositioning of the high several days out. Do you think this has a decent chance ot not beig a recurve? I know it's a ways out, but I enjoy reading your thoughts.
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Re:

#123 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:24 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:IVANHATER, what' your take on 93L? I know earlier this morning the mood seemed to be "recurve" due to a repositioning of the high several days out. Do you think this has a decent chance ot not beig a recurve? I know it's a ways out, but I enjoy reading your thoughts.


If it develops early then it is likely to turn up; however, we are seeing the 12z guidance showing a weaker and westward trend into the Caribbean for 93L. GFS and GFDL into the Caribbean...12z Euro out to 96 hours so far

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Re: Re:

#124 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:26 pm

If it develops early then it is likely to turn up; however, we are seeing the 12z guidance showing a weaker and westward trend into the Caribbean for 93L. GFS and GFDL into the Caribbean...12z Euro out to 96 hours so far



Hmm, Okay thanks. Interesting days ahead....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#125 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:28 pm

12z Euro ...120 hours

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#126 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:33 pm

144 hours

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#127 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:38 pm

168 hours...hits the NE Islands

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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#128 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:44 pm

11/1745 UTC 11.2N 21.2W T1.0/1.0 93L
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#129 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:48 pm

12Z GFS and 12Z Euro are eerily similar through 192 hours....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#130 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:48 pm

192 hours...much further south skirting the Islands

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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#131 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:52 pm

LLC has improved since this morning.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#132 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:53 pm

216..skirting the north Cuban coast

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#133 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:59 pm

Now for all you Euro huggers, let me highlight today's 12z run...it is the farthest south and west model so far with 93L. It does develop it into a strong system heading west to wnw skirting the Islands heading toward the Florida straits

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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#134 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:01 pm

TAFB 72 hrs Forecast
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#135 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:05 pm

One thing I'm confident on is that 93L should keep moving west for the next 120 to 144hrs reaching the Lesser Antilles but after that my magic eight ball stopped working... :lol:
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Re:

#136 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:09 pm

Rgv20 wrote:One thing I'm confident on is that 93L should keep moving west for the next 120 to 144hrs reaching the Lesser Antilles but after that my magic eight ball stopped working... :lol:

Why do you think that it should reach the Lesser Antilles? What are your reasoning?
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#137 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:15 pm

Ivan, the ECMWF keeps it on a west track because it keeps it weak...and should 92L really bomb out north of the islands on a recurve path, it should really leave behind a weakness in the Western Atlantic...
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Re:

#138 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:17 pm

gatorcane wrote:Ivan, the ECMWF keeps it on a west track because it keeps it weak.


Not at all...this is the strongest run yet from the Euro and also the furthest south and west. Take a look at the 00z run, showed a weak refelection and still turned it well north and east.
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#139 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:19 pm

:uarrow: 12zForecast steering chart shows a basic west steering for 93L thru the next five to six days.

Would post a pic but I'm at work....Here is the link http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/COMPSTEERATL_12z/comploop.html
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#140 Postby x-y-no » Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:28 pm

GCANE wrote:LLC has improved since this morning.


I've been trying to find out how that product is produced. It always looks suspiciously idealized to me. Can you point me to any documentation of the basis for it?
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