ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

It looks like Ex97L is catching 98L.

[fci]

If it catches 98L, can they call it 97.5L?

[cycloneye]

Remains at 60%

They made the merge between Ex 97L and 98L.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS REFORMED FARTHER TO THE EAST ABOUT
1550 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/2345 UTC 11.0N 37.4W T1.0/1.0 98L
19/1745 UTC 10.9N 38.5W T1.0/1.0 98L

[wxman57]

wxman - which of the BAM models are non dynamic? Unless it's all of them.

They're simple trajectory models; shallow, medium and deep layer. The ridge to the north of 98L will remain in place until between 65-70W. At that time, it's an open highway to the north no matter what the state of development.

[calmbeforestorm1]

The 18z GFDL takes it through the Caribbean to right under Jamaica as a tropical storm. Shows that that is at least still a possibility.

[Gustywind]

000
AGXX40 KNHC 191817
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
LOW PRES IN CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 12N38W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND
MOVE W THROUGH WED...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LOW
CENTER WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE THU...AND MOVE TOWARD
THE E CARIBBEAN FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALSO...WINDS AND SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE MUCH HIGHER...AND HAVE A GREATER
EXTENT...WITHIN THE N SEMICIRCLE THAN S OF THE CENTER. GFS UKMET
AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE 20-30 KT WINDS DEVELOPING N OF THE LOW
BY WED...WITH 8-12 FT SEAS REACHING TO 22N IN THE N SEMICIRCLE.

$$
FORECASTER MUNDELL

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 98, 2011092000, , BEST, 0, 113N, 372W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[wxman57]

The 18z GFDL takes it through the Caribbean to right under Jamaica as a tropical storm. Shows that that is at least still a possibility.

I believe GFDL did the same with Katia and Maria. It hasn't performed well this year.

[Gustywind]

Loop of 98L progresses westward...

[Gustywind]

From NRL:
20110920.0015.98LINVEST.25kts-1008mb-113N-372W.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 200027
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0027 UTC TUE SEP 20 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110920 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110920  0000   110920  1200   110921  0000   110921  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.3N  37.2W   11.7N  39.2W   12.3N  41.8W   12.8N  45.4W
BAMD    11.3N  37.2W   11.9N  38.7W   12.7N  40.6W   13.5N  42.8W
BAMM    11.3N  37.2W   11.7N  38.8W   12.1N  40.8W   12.5N  43.5W
LBAR    11.3N  37.2W   11.9N  38.7W   12.8N  40.7W   13.9N  43.1W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          36KTS          41KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          36KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110922  0000   110923  0000   110924  0000   110925  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.1N  49.3W   12.6N  57.8W   11.8N  65.4W   12.0N  71.2W
BAMD    14.4N  45.1W   16.1N  49.0W   18.0N  51.5W   19.5N  52.1W
BAMM    13.0N  46.3W   13.5N  51.9W   14.6N  56.6W   16.6N  60.0W
LBAR    15.2N  45.8W   18.0N  51.4W   21.3N  56.2W   23.8N  59.6W
SHIP        45KTS          44KTS          44KTS          43KTS
DSHP        45KTS          44KTS          44KTS          43KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.3N LONCUR =  37.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  11.1N LONM12 =  37.2W DIRM12 = 139DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  11.7N LONM24 =  36.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


Saved image by ImageShack.us

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 192353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW IS NEAR 12N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 37W-41W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT
5-10 KT.

[fci]

The 18z GFDL takes it through the Caribbean to right under Jamaica as a tropical storm. Shows that that is at least still a possibility.

I believe GFDL did the same with Katia and Maria. It hasn't performed well this year.

To further that point, the GFDL has blasted South Florida several times.
For the storms that have recurved harmlessly away from South Florida

[Hylian Auree]

wxman - which of the BAM models are non dynamic? Unless it's all of them.

They're simple trajectory models; shallow, medium and deep layer. The ridge to the north of 98L will remain in place until between 65-70W. At that time, it's an open highway to the north no matter what the state of development.

Thanks! That makes sense, especially when it comes to the BAMS showing an unusual south of west motion due to the strong low-level ridging.

[tobol.7uno]

Models for invest 98L Valid 8pm EDT

[HurricaneWarning92]

I dont see any model agreement that this is a definite recurve, away from the CONUS..

[Recurve]

Gotta love the forecast of a deep trough pulling off the east coast and as far south as the Yucatan. Sounds like zero chance for SE FL to worry about a storm from this disturbance. Or as close to zero as you can get.

The change in daylight is barely perceptible in the subtropics now. We're hungering for that first wave of, not cool air, just less-saturated air. Maybe dropping into the 70s at night-type air. If that comes and turns another storm away, even better.

We still have October to watch: Caribbean stew and recurve too.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Not sure what you are looking HW92. The models from the above graphic show very good agreement and from what I see there is not much evidence for a recurve right now. Could you please provide some thought about why you think there is not a lot of agreement and the system recurving.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Sorry HW92 after rereading your post I think I understand what you are saying. You are saying that there is no model agreement on a definate recurve as of yet. My bad!