ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[NDG]

NNE wind officially reported now at Cozumel along with bout 40056 now reporting SSW winds keeps supporting my thinking of COC off the coast of Cozumel.

Kudos NDG, looks like Dr Masters is echoing what you're saying about the location of the low pressure system.

Thanks, still looks to be a bit elongated though.

[AdamFirst]

So a sheared tropical system coming through south-central Florida? What conditions can we expect down here? We're not south Florida yet we're not central Florida either. :p

[Florida1118]

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS NOT WELL DEFINED BUT
MAY BE REFORMING JUST TO THE EAST OF COZUMEL. THE LOW CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH THE LAND MASS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


IMO 50% is still low, seems alot better organized to me

[blp]

I believe this is a recent pass. Time is 15:30Z.

IMO, Still broad but getting tighter and trying to wrap. Looks like most of it is offshore now.

[LarryWx]

As compared to the unnamed storm near Cape Canaveral a week ago, this one is much looser, at least as of now.

[Rainband]

12z GFS 72 hour loop

that's in my backyard lol

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 95, 2011101618, , BEST, 0, 199N, 870W, 30, 1004, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[blp]

18z Best Track

AL, 95, 2011101618, , BEST, 0, 199N, 870W, 30, 1004, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

That puts it offshore south of Conzumel as many have pointed out. I still think we may see something trying to get going closer to the deeper convection.

[Rainband]

NNE wind officially reported now at Cozumel along with bout 40056 now reporting SSW winds keeps supporting my thinking of COC off the coast of Cozumel.

Kudos NDG, looks like Dr Masters is echoing what you're saying about the location of the low pressure system.

oh I see my buoy report early on means nothin. I am so hurt

[CrazyC83]

12z GFS 72 hour loop

that's in my backyard lol

That setup looks quite similar to Ida in 2009...

[CrazyC83]

SHIP S 1500 22.40 -86.30 149 15 90 38.1 - - - - - 29.85 +0.00 77.9 - 74.1 5 8 - 13.1 6.0 80 - - - ---- -----

Supports an intensity of at least 40 kt, maybe 45 kt. That was about 5 hours ago.

[Kingarabian]

Sooner a plane reaches it sooner they will name it - as is the case with many storms this year.

[breaking wind]

I personally don't see much coming from this for Florida with 95L, but their should be a fairly potent squall line coming through with this stronger than normal cold front for mid-october. Gulf temperatures are going to plummet by weeks end pretty much closing the book on this season IMHO.

[CrazyC83]

So with the new storm expected to develop along the Appalachians this week, is that this system, a new system that will just steal its moisture or something completely separate?

[Rainband]

seems like they will merge. Most likely just a lot of rain from what I am seeing and hearing could make to Storm status. That's what I love about S2K earlier today I was thinking this would be a storm by now and may even a cane at some time but Satellites can be tricky and if your patient and look for the trend you see the real picture. Anything is possible in the tropics and i am Happy to have a group of respectful peeps to learn with: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Rainband]

I personally don't see much coming from this for Florida with 95L, but their should be a fairly potent squall line coming through with this stronger than normal cold front for mid-october. Gulf temperatures are going to plummet by weeks end pretty much closing the book on this season IMHO.

I am all for that. I can't wait till these windows stay open all day. I love the cooler weather. I do think we may get a little bit of excitement before the fat lady sings. A little is ok imo

[Vortex]

looking at the radar from western Cuba the area over the yucatan channel just NE of cozumel looks quite suspect..may or may not be significant well see..


http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... ar/00Pinar del Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif

[Evil Jeremy]

Watching this intently from Tampa. Defiantly not going to be a big wind maker.

Still, 95L needs to consolidate much more if it wants to become a TS. It is getting more organized, but the vorticity is still very broad:

[cycloneye]

Very much off topic= 96L around the corner?

[Evil Jeremy]

Very much off topic= 96L around the corner?

Could be. Looking at the vorticity map, it's consolidated well (abit not that strong). I'm surprised it's still at 10%. Not saying it should be code Orange, but it's looking good right now.