ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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ROCK
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Re: Re:

#1201 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:16 am

lebron23 wrote:
ROCK wrote:
lebron23 wrote:00z GFDL track shows up nice on this site...bends back west toward gulf

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_91.gif



yep, and you couple that with the NOGAPS southern solution...a shift in the models will be in order.....got to see what the EURO does.....my guess is the ridge builds in quicker than advertised....


UKM shifted north. UKM always seemed to have the same track as euro with don..


I usually dont look at the UKMET....but I know so far with this guy the NOGAPS, EURO and GFDL are mirroring each other the last few runs....
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Re:

#1202 Postby fci » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:16 am

Bobo2000 wrote:....100%...... About the time we wake up, Tropical Depression Five.


I also think they will wait for Recon.
Unless you sleep REALLY late (like Noon or later) I don't think you will see TD5 when you get up......(although if reading this at 2 AM eastern, then probably not up till PM anyway! LOL)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#1203 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:18 am

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif


72hr EURO....weaker and under PR.....very similar to the GFDL run so far.....NOGAPS was way south than this though....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#1204 Postby fci » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:18 am

Florida1118 wrote:37 pages for a almost TD, and 15 for a Super Typhoon.



A show of hands........how many on S2K know where the Super Typhoon is?
Or that there even WAS a Super Typhoon??
Yeah.....that's what I thought.

My experience says that if there is a threat in the Atlantic basin, you see pages.
90L had almost 100 pages (or close to 100 at least) before it became a TD/Don!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#1205 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:20 am

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif

96hr approaching Hispa...very close to it...anyway...hard to tell
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#1206 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:24 am

wow a 983 mb storm near Andros Island? thats not really that weak. and definitely close to Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#1207 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:24 am

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

passed Hispa to the NW...still ridging there but weakness along the EC.

BTW- that weakness does not look all that amplified....

also not sure what would be left after passing over the moutains....
Last edited by ROCK on Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#1208 Postby dwsqos2 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:26 am

31/0545 UTC 12.8N 50.1W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic

And, here's one of the reasons that I don't think it will be classified prior to the recon flight. Generally, T1.5 or T2.0 is preferred. And, for T1.5 the surface circulation needs to blindingly obvious either in surface data, ASCAT, or visible satellite.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#1209 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:26 am

Euro is out to 120 so far and looks very similar to the GGEM model.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#1210 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:30 am

dwsqos2 wrote:31/0545 UTC 12.8N 50.1W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic

And, here's one of the reasons that I don't think it will be classified prior to the recon flight. Generally, T1.5 or T2.0 is preferred. And, for T1.5 the surface circulation needs to blindingly obvious either in surface data, ASCAT, or visible satellite.



will have to agree with you on this one....took me 8yrs to say that btw... :lol: :lol: I cant see any signs at the surface.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#1211 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:34 am

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif


looks like its heading out..need one more frame to be sure......kinda curves under PR then smashes DR then heads out....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#1212 Postby SeminoleWind » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:39 am

ROCK wrote:http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP120.gif


looks like its heading out..need one more frame to be sure......kinda curves under PR then smashes DR then heads out....


The new euro looks like a close shave for the Bahamas and Florida, The weakness doesn't seem as gaping as it did earlier.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#1213 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:39 am

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif

nope.....in the Bahamas really slowed down.....
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#1214 Postby SeminoleWind » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:40 am

Is it possible this could get left behind at a higher latitude?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#1215 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:47 am

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp


looks really bad...the low level flow is still quite strong.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#1216 Postby WxEnthus » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:49 am

fci wrote:
Florida1118 wrote:37 pages for a almost TD, and 15 for a Super Typhoon.



A show of hands........how many on S2K know where the Super Typhoon is?
Or that there even WAS a Super Typhoon??
Yeah.....that's what I thought.

My experience says that if there is a threat in the Atlantic basin, you see pages.
90L had almost 100 pages (or close to 100 at least) before it became a TD/Don!


To be precise 90L had almost 80 pages before it became a TD :wink: but I get your point.

I've noticed a few posts in which folks have pointed out with frustration that the forums tip heavily in favor of Atlantic storms. I'm sure we all have our own good reasons for making the ATL basin a very popular spot for threads.

Admittedly I'm not a prolific or experienced poster to begin with, but for an example, here are my reasons: It's not that I don't care about weather events in other parts of the world; it's certainly not a personal snub or an apathetic dismissal of other areas! It's much more about location, location, location (even when it's ocean real estate I guess this still holds true). I'm more familiar with the geography, history, patterns, impacts, etc of the areas closest to (and most likely to make an impact on) my own locality. This seems like a pretty natural, instinctive inclination for folks to have so I'm not sure why this is upsetting to some.

The other obvious issue is time management and the ability to survey and keep up with only so much info in at once. It's like when I go to the library, there are dozens (if not hundreds) of books I'd like to read but I have other things to accomplish as well so I pick one or two and that's what I stick with since it's manageable. I love these forums and avidly read many of the threads but I'm probably in what I'm guessing is the majority of folks who, despite giving up a few hours of sleep during hurricane season, still can't read or comment on them all.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#1217 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:50 am

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif


192 EURO waves bye bye to Emily.....understand this is long range and even the mighty EURO can have issues...I still expect a south shift on the models tomorrow...because of what it looks like now and our recent models tonight....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#1218 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:51 am

This run was up in the air for a while, but the 192hr images tell the story:

Image

Image
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#1219 Postby SeminoleWind » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:54 am

8 days out huh? i think i will wait and watch lol :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#1220 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:56 am

ROCK wrote:http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP192.gif


192 EURO waves bye bye to Emily.....understand this is long range and even the mighty EURO can have issues...I still expect a south shift on the models tomorrow...because of what it looks like now and our recent models tonight....


I dunno-if this occurs, isnt that a pretty strong breakdown of the High Pressure systems which have prevailed all summer long causing heat and drought? If I see that right, it smashes the Azores/Bermuda high east like its nothing. Would be a heat wave breaking trough for sure which wouldn't be a bad thing.
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