ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


interesting that the low level convergence is south now....this moves around during the day though...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[TwisterFanatic]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp


looks really bad...the low level flow is still quite strong.

New convection firing, but still very sloppy.

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=


steering.....this reminds me of 05 Emily....

[TwisterFanatic]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP192.gif


192 EURO waves bye bye to Emily.....understand this is long range and even the mighty EURO can have issues...I still expect a south shift on the models tomorrow...because of what it looks like now and our recent models tonight....

I don't know if I can believe that, it totally breaks down the ridge that has been so dominate for 2+ months now. Kinda hard to believe it will breakdown in the early to middle part of August, but I wouldn't mind. 112 forecasted for my town Tuesday.

[Evil Jeremy]

It might not look pretty, but were getting convection consolidated again:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[bamajammer4eva]

Overnight Tampa long term discussion explains the East trend in the models. However they aren't sure about the whether or not (future) Emily will impact their area. It doesnt break the heat wave either

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
245 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE EXTENDED WILL
FEATURE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. ON TUESDAY THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A
STRONG 500 MB RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ARKLATEX. TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS
WHICH HAD SUGGESTED AT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA. THE
CURRENT GFS SHOWS THE STRONG 500 MB RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM AND
REACH TO +20 TO +21 C BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGHS WELL INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH THE LACK OF A
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THERE WILL BE DAILY SEA BREEZES TO
KEEP IT COOLER NEAR THE COAST AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR RAIN CHANCES.
PWATS TO REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE WILD
CARD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN AND THE TRACK OF ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think it looks as good as it did 12 to 16 hours ago. But then again, appearances can be deceiving sometimes.

[TwisterFanatic]

[Recurve]

NHC doesn't actually need to declare 91L a depression so it can issue warnings. Watches and warnings are public notices, not meteorological definitions. It may not be likely, indeed I don't know if it's ever happened, but there's nothing stopping them from issuing a watches or warnings if the islands are 24 to 48 hours from the conditions the notices specify. Since 600 miles remain, we're in the range of a watch now -- if it's expected to be TS Emily when it gets there.

Just my opinion (guess), I'll say a watch at 11 a.m. to play it safe. But it also depends on coordinating with multiple foreign governments; no US territories are in the 48-hour window I don't think.

NOT AN OFFICIAL, INFORMED FORECAST. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

I think its quite clearly a TD now, I know the NHC may as well wait for recon now but the reason whty they upgraded to near 100% is because that microwave pass earlier all but totally confirmed the LLC and there is now consolidated convection over the center...

Not really much more this system can do to become a system!

It is elongated though to be fair.

[somethingfunny]

Best Track has this Invest centered near 13N and 51W (12.9N, 15.2W to be exact). I saw some spin there on AVN a few hours ago before it was covered up by thunderstorms, and well look at the convection now over 13N/51W. The NHC is probably just waiting for daylight to confirm an LLC before upgrading.

[Recurve]

Does look to be getting it together. I didn't see the sat winds graphic, was there a nearly closed LLC? Where would it be now?

[KWT]

Models have trended westwards even though they still nearly all recurve.

Hispaniola increasingly looking like it will be in the path or close by anyway and I wouldn't be all that surprised if the GFDL is close to the mark now given the way some models have trended westwards...

[KWT]

There was a closed low as early as 2 days ago, its probably been a bit elongated but I think there is pretty much no doubt about there being a LLC at the moment.

Track at the moment looks to be around 275 IMO.

[bamajammer4eva]

Models have trended westwards even though they still nearly all recurve.

Hispaniola increasingly looking like it will be in the path or close by anyway and I wouldn't be all that surprised if the GFDL is close to the mark now given the way some models have trended westwards...

I was actually wondering if since the models trended eastward with the trough/weakness if maybe 91l will be too far south to get picked up making it follow 00z GFDL with the curve west at the end and the become steered by the high further west-steering it across the gulf and into Mexico?

[KWT]

I would still think the GFDL would eventually recurve but it'll b e a close call for Florida and the east coast if its right.

If not then it probably sees the upper high throwing out a small ridge, like it has got currently.

Should be slowing down a little if the models have got the steering currents right.

[Hylian Auree]

Aha, deep convection finally seems to be tightening up over the llc. Wait for Dmax to kick in and we'll probably have a TC. It's heading due west, straight into the north-central Lesser Antilles imo. If the NHC doesn't initiate advisories by 11 AM, I'll definitely be disappointed given the short amount of time for preparations while this thing is definitely a developing TC by now.

[KWT]

To be honest though its not been developing all that quickly...I think we are close to phase 2 of this system now though and that would entail a much quicker rate of development then we've seen recently.

For now low level flow strong till 60W which should keep the system going on a 275-285 track for the rest of today anyway.

[Hylian Auree]

Yeah, it took a while getting its act together. The multiple vortices and dry air certainly didn't help it. That's usually the case with these relatively early CV tropical waves though, esp when the broader circulation is embedded in the ITCZ. However, once they do get going, they are certainly the biggest trouble makers out there.

To be honest, I wasn't too sure about when it would develop until now; it's actually showing signs of progressive development now imo.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Here's the latest run of the GFDL. Very eye opening to look at:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Still though, this storm hasn't formed so things can still change. Though if it followed that path it'd be a bit hard for it to recurve without hitting the east coast.