ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

Convection builds but then weakens, system is clearly in the fight for its life...

Notm convinced it'll make the islands as a tropical cyclone unless the conditions improve...

[tobol.7uno]

What is the problem with the aircraft investigation Maria today. There has been issues with Nate too, just not as bad as with Maria. Still no update. Got a dropsonde report out ahead of where the plane's last transmission was from.

[Extratropical94]

I'm gettin tired, if you want you can continue posting obs IF they are transmitted.
Thanks in advance.

[KWT]

Yeah, I tell you what recon has struggled all year when it comes to getting data through for some reason...

[Weatherboy1]

Is this another Debby, I wonder? Where the fast moving nature of the storm causes the LLC to outrun its convection, especially with the added headache of shear thrown in? Enquiring minds want to know. Certainly the modelling trends are a bit more concerning here in SE FL ... but that's assuming there's anything left at all to track!

[tobol.7uno]

I'm gettin tired, if you want you can continue posting obs IF they are transmitted.
Thanks in advance.

To be honest, the only reason I am at the computer is to cover this recon, I am getting a bit bored as well, I will be back in about an hour to check on it. If it transmits data within that time feel free to post it anyone.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

When an ob goes by too fast, try the NOAAPort server at the University of Puerto Rico's (UPR) Climate and Weather Resource Center:
http://www.opennoaaport.net/
The site has raw data for NOAA products and you can get the obs faster than they appear in the NHCs archive.

Direct link to...

KNHC:
http://www.opennoaaport.net:8015/rst/txt/knhc/

KWBC:
http://www.opennoaaport.net:8015/rst/txt/kwbc/

(I should point out that they still don't have the older data for Maria just like the NHC archive doesn't have it.)

[KWT]

Quite possibly is another sheared system that struggles to sustain itself, no certainties of course but I don't think the conditions are going to improve anytime soon.

[Aric Dunn]

5pm is out..

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 082050
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011

...MARIA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 52.7W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...AND SAINT
KITTS
* ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...GUADELOUPE...AND MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* ST.MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL BE NEAR THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY AND MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...IF WEAKENING DOES NOT OCCUR...TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL BE NEAR THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY AND MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...IF WEAKENING DOES NOT OCCUR...TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

[HurricaneBelle]

Have to give the models credit for this, they forecast it to be weak as it traversed the Atlantic.

[Aric Dunn]

no mention of the models shifting.. oh well more waiting.. for the "expected turn" from yesterday.. lol pretty sure this wont occur till it starts passing the islands and it should be gradual.. but will see.

[Aric Dunn]

once it starts to slow down though it should be able to maintain more convection as the convergence on the south side should increase.

[longislandguy]

Just watched the Weather Channel Tropical Update and this was a direct quote from Carl Parker "If we look at the current forecast models for TS Maria they are all in agreement that the storm will recurve out to sea north of Puerto Rico and pose no threat to the U.S. Coast". Isn't it a little too premature for a weather station with such a tremendous following to be making these statements so far out?

[HurricaneWarning92]

I was a big fan of TWC when i was a kid... not anymore...

[lonelymike]

:uarrow: I was a big fan of TWC when i was a kid... not anymore...

Now you know so much more than what TWC spins

[HurricaneWarning92]

:uarrow: I was a big fan of TWC when i was a kid... not anymore...

Now you know so much more than what TWC spins

yep, though i still have lots to learn... but yeah TWC is not the same anymore. I still watch it when theres a storm, sometimes when i am interested on what they have to say about it, but i dont take their words "too" seriously.

[tobol.7uno]

The plane must have had its antennas and instruments blown off or something. Still no update from the flight into Maria.

[gatorcane]

Avila seems very confident in that forecast (translates to me that he is not worried about Florida)....

No mention of the GFDL or HWRF at all.....and Euro with a big shift west...

AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RELATIVELY TIGHT GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THIS INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST BUT
THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1443.shtml?