ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ozonepete]

Looks pretty serious to me.

[Hylian Auree]

I'd say it's a TD by now. Now to wait for official confirmation.
Edit: Actually, it might even be at tropical storm status, though I think they'll classify it as a TD and wait for recon data.

[jhpigott]

Here's the latest run of the GFDL. Very eye opening to look at:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Still though, this storm hasn't formed so things can still change. Though if it followed that path it'd be a bit hard for it to recurve without hitting the east coast.

If that track pans out, I don't see how it avoids hitting somewhere along the east coast. Last frame looks to be 40-50 miles south south east of andros island. Almost have to come to a complete stop and head due north to miss SFL on that track

[somethingfunny]

*whistles*

Good morning, 91L!

[Hylian Auree]

*whistles*

Good morning, 91L!

Beautiful, ain't she? Taking full advantage of dmax

[ozonepete]

Odds are pretty good that RECON is going to find a very large tropical storm today...

[Hylian Auree]

I'm not too sure how large it'll be once it consolidates, but it is relatively massive right now
It has a pretty nice moisture blanket and divergent area with some convection popping up ahead of it though, which should deal with any possible dry air in front.

[AHS2011]

What would be an estimated guess of the precentage probability that Emily hits the East Coast? Or is this just going to be another Earl?

[cycloneye]

Excerpt from the San Juan NWS this morning.

FOR LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND PROBABLY A PART OF THURSDAY...OUR LOCAL FORECAST HINGES ON
AFOREMENTIONED SLOWLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS FEATURE HAS TAKEN ITS TIME GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED
BUT NHC HAS STATED THAT THEY BELIEVE IT IS CLOSE TO BEING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WITH A NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT OFFICIAL OR ETCHED IN STONE...MOST COMPUTER
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING AND A
GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM THEN "PROJECTED" TO PASS NEAR THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...
WINDS AND SEAS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THUS...ALL LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM VERY CLOSELY THROUGH THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND TROPICAL WEATHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY WFO SAN
JUAN AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

[tolakram]

If that track pans out there will be nothing left after passing over the high mountains of Hispaniola, IMO. Still, the fact that it takes it that far west is something to worry about.

[tolakram]

Looking at the MIMIC-TPW loop: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

A tongue of dry air, as gatorcane spoke of yesterday, is making it near the circulation center and the circulation no longer looks that good.

[jlauderdal]

What would be an estimated guess of the precentage probability that Emily hits the East Coast? Or is this just going to be another Earl?

14.23%

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

From NRL : 20110731.1015.91LINVEST.25kts-1007mb-130N-510W

[ronjon]

Uh-oh. 00z GFS ensemble run shows ridging building back in along the east coast in 6 days. Would likely guide 91L into FL and possibly into the GOM or the SE US coast.



00z ECM ensemble run in remarkable agreement with GFS ensemble at 144 hrs. I would expect a shift in the operational models toward the south and west based on these runs. This pattern is probably what the GFDL is picking up on.

[capepoint]

37 pages for a almost TD, and 15 for a Super Typhoon.

A show of hands........how many on S2K know where the Super Typhoon is?
Or that there even WAS a Super Typhoon??
Yeah.....that's what I thought.

My experience says that if there is a threat in the Atlantic basin, you see pages.
90L had almost 100 pages (or close to 100 at least) before it became a TD/Don!

And as soon as it's a certainty that a system will not make it into the GOM, the thread gets even emptier. At least thats been the rule for the last couple of years.

[Gustywind]

[GCANE]

Moving into a pocket of relatively high OHC water in about 12hrs.

[GCANE]

Core has cooled quite a bit since yesterday and circulation is still at mid-level.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 2_TANO.GIF

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 2_VGRD.GIF

IMHO, Coriolis is still weak at this latitude. As it pulls more north, it should pick up more of a spin.

[dwsqos2]

Considering the countless Atlantic storms that have formed at or around 10N, I have a hard time believing that Coriolis is this invest's problem. I suspect that relatively brisk low-level flow is causing the convergence issues.

That and competition; looking at low-cloud motions south of the disturbance don't exactly paint the most organized picture.