ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dave]

Welcome to the world of patience....think I'll fix some supper while waiting...

[bigdan35]

Nam at 18Z High at 84 hrs still above it but you can see the opening by the Bahamas for it to escape.




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[cycloneye]

[jlauderdal]

Avila seems very confident in that forecast (translates to me that he is not worried about Florida)....

No mention of the GFDL or HWRF at all.....and Euro with a big shift west...

AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RELATIVELY TIGHT GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THIS INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST BUT
THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1443.shtml?

just wait until stewart gets on duty, he is not afraid to do a 180 from avila, time will tell

[craptacular]

Just watched the Weather Channel Tropical Update and this was a direct quote from Carl Parker "If we look at the current forecast models for TS Maria they are all in agreement that the storm will recurve out to sea north of Puerto Rico and pose no threat to the U.S. Coast". Isn't it a little too premature for a weather station with such a tremendous following to be making these statements so far out?

Well, he did use three qualifying words in a row: Current, Forecast, Models

[Evil Jeremy]

Avila seems very confident in that forecast (translates to me that he is not worried about Florida)....

No mention of the GFDL or HWRF at all.....and Euro with a big shift west...

AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RELATIVELY TIGHT GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THIS INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST BUT
THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1443.shtml?

just wait until stewart gets on duty, he is not afraid to do a 180 from avila, time will tell

Stewart hasn't written an advisory since last weekend. Where has he been this past week?

[longislandguy]

that verbiage was there however; I feel a more professional approach would be to advise that things still need to be monitored closely as time goes on. In any event, I trust the opinions of this board in lieu of mass media now. Glad I came across this board!

[tobol.7uno]

Possible threat to Florida? Since she continues on this westward track and is now expected to be even weaker.

[SouthDadeFish]

18Z GFS is bring the 500mb vorticity of Maria virtually NW from where it is now through 36 hours. I'm not sure about that...

[islandguy246]

I'll be watching Maria closely here in Barbados. Could get some squally weather tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

18Z GFS is bring the 500mb vorticity of Maria virtually NW from where it is now through 36 hours. I'm not sure about that...

yeah o\its been doing that .... one of the problems

[beoumont]

( Tongue in cheek ) Oh no..... The LAST thing I wanted to see was a "sudden recurve" right off our Florida S.E. coast.... Was hoping for a "laser shot" straight on and into Miami then into the Gulf. If NHC does'nt put S. Florida smack in the middle of it's 5 day cone, than i'm concerned that we "might" really catch this one. Bring me the cone~~~~~~~~~
.

Two things almost always hold out:

A. If the 120 hour NHC forecast track has it right over your house; the storm will not come anywhere nearby.

B. As you probably remember, from the early 1990s on, a chaser could turn on TWC early in the chase, see where Jim Cantore was stationed; and you knew to go somewhere else if you wanted to intercept the core.

(JC has gotten a little luckier a couple of times in recent years; just watch TWC ads. and they claim he has a great track record: cough cough.)

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
211 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
MON-WED...ECM MODEL HAS TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARD THE GFS COMPARED TO
H24 AGO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGHER. THE BROAD POS TILT CTRL-ERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ESE AS IT WEAKENS FURTHER...BUT WILL BE PLENTY
STRONG TO ERODE THE WRN PORTION OF BERMUDA RIDGE THAT WILL HAVE
BRIEFLY REBUILT TO THE EAST. THIS WILL CATCH T.C. "MARIA" AND TURN
HER NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST...WELL EAST OF FL...BY NEXT WED. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED COLLAPSE OF THE WRN ATLC RIDGE...GRADIENT FLOW WILL
EITHER BECOME QUITE LIGHT OR BACK TO NE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST
MARIA GETS. ATTM FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD GFS SOLN... WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS. POPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO...NEAR 40 PCT
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO AS WELL.

[cycloneye]

I guess the mission was aborted as no new data has been out for the past 3 hours.

[Evil Jeremy]

18z GFS a couple of degrees to the east of the 12z run.

[SouthDadeFish]

So 18Z GFS keeps Nate way farther south than before, but sends Maria out farther east lol. So much for those two being connected...

[SouthDadeFish]

Convective comeback!

[Vortex]

looking better the last 2 hours...

[Meteorcane]

18z GFS is a little east thankfully, however, I usually dont like to pay too much attention to the 6 and 18z GFS runs.

[ouragans]

Guadeloupe is on Orange Alert, which is the equivalent of Tropical Storm Warning, effective at 6PM.

In the mean time:

WTNT64 KNHC 082229
TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
630 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN