ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE AND
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY
TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL
CYCLONE LATER TODAY...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[SouthDadeFish]

Will they wait for recon?

[GCANE]

Looks like the anti-cyclone has taken a hit and shear is increasing.

Maybe about 15 knots UL winds over the LLC.

As usual, waves have their ups and downs.

Could have a big impact on forecast track.

Longer it remains a wave, the straight west it goes.

[dwsqos2]

I would vote yes waiting for recon; it doesn't meet the classical convective definition, in my very humble opinion. T1.0 is not high enough.

And, I'm sorry, but the relatively weak solutions the Euro keeps spitting out give me pause about its absolute potential. I mean the model has a resolution of 12 km. Yes, yes I know: Don't use a global model solution as a measure of absolute intensity, but solution after solution of a 1008-1010 mb low makes me step back for a bit.

Upper-level wind progs on the gfs look nice, but still.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EDIT-it's quite stupid to incorrectly use "its."

[BobHarlem]

Starting to see 91L on radar over from Martinique (It's looped at http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?108 )

[jlauderdal]

Uh-oh. 00z GFS ensemble run shows ridging building back in along the east coast in 6 days. Would likely guide 91L into FL and possibly into the GOM or the SE US coast.



00z ECM ensemble run in remarkable agreement with GFS ensemble at 144 hrs. I would expect a shift in the operational models toward the south and west based on these runs. This pattern is probably what the GFDL is picking up on.

exits into the gulf at 28.4, 82.6

[boca]

The 06z GFS has 91L recurving east of the Bahamas.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[cycloneye]

06z HWRF

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[HurricaneWarning92]

Wow it sure is taking its time developing..

[HurricaneWarning92]

is it me or i see a wnw track at the end?

[boca]

The system is so large thats why its taking its sweet time getting its act together.

[shaggy]

Here's the latest run of the GFDL. Very eye opening to look at:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Still though, this storm hasn't formed so things can still change. Though if it followed that path it'd be a bit hard for it to recurve without hitting the east coast.

If that track pans out, I don't see how it avoids hitting somewhere along the east coast. Last frame looks to be 40-50 miles south south east of andros island. Almost have to come to a complete stop and head due north to miss SFL on that track

Storms can get quite close to a coastline and still miss them......2 storms that recurved at close proximity to the SE coast are 1999 dennis and Ophelia 2005

[boca]

I pm'd cycloneye regarding that last frame.

[jlauderdal]

Here's the latest run of the GFDL. Very eye opening to look at:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Still though, this storm hasn't formed so things can still change. Though if it followed that path it'd be a bit hard for it to recurve without hitting the east coast.

If that track pans out, I don't see how it avoids hitting somewhere along the east coast. Last frame looks to be 40-50 miles south south east of andros island. Almost have to come to a complete stop and head due north to miss SFL on that track

Storms can get quite close to a coastline and still miss them......2 storms that recurved at close proximity to the SE coast are 1999 dennis and Ophelia 2005

we were all in full prep mode for dennis because it was forecast to get so close but it did make the turn but so close we had to prepare for a direct hit

[HurricaneWarning92]

I pm'd cycloneye regarding that last frame.

i doesnt show an immediate recurve like previous runs, its as if theres a ridge building back in making it go wnw at the end.

[HurricaneWarning92]

it looks like a depression here... imo

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[boca]

I pm'd cycloneye regarding that last frame.

i doesnt show an immediate recurve like previous runs, its as if theres a ridge building back in making it go wnw at the end.

The 06z GFS has it recurving east of the Bahamas.

[HurricaneWarning92]

I pm'd cycloneye regarding that last frame.

i doesnt show an immediate recurve like previous runs, its as if theres a ridge building back in making it go wnw at the end.

The 06z GFS has it recurving east of the Bahamas.

Im talking about the 06z HWRF

[Aric Dunn]

DID that front circ that develop way out to the west yesterday really break of... thats weird..

[Aric Dunn]

ITs also moving basically due west... its going through the central islands...