ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[BatzVI]

Someone needs to let the Weather Channel know that it's now Irene...they are saying it's still not a depression as of 7:03pm...

[johngaltfla]

Someone needs to let the Weather Channel know that it's now Irene...they are saying it's still not a depression as of 7:03pm...

They will not officially make a statement until the NHC does. FYI...

[AdamFirst]

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* DOMINICA
* BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...AND MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON
MONDAY.

[stormhunter7]

TROPICAL STORM IRENE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
2300 UTC SAT AUG 20 2011


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 58.5W AT 20/2300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......105NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

[pricetag56]

Folks in the islands of Puerto Rico and northern Leewards, are any preps being done?

She may mave the potential to be something more as it seems to be organizing quite quickly.

it is organizing quickly this is getting dangerous for the islands

[HurricaneWarning92]

Folks in the islands of Puerto Rico and northern Leewards, are any preps being done?

She may mave the potential to be something more as it seems to be organizing quite quickly.

Is it really organizing quickly? I'm not trying to be a smartazz just wondering if that is the consensus here. It looks to me to be rather disorganized still, but I'm no expert (just a seasoned enthusiast! ).

It is still disorganized, but it is a little better organized than what was expected this time around.

[johngaltfla]

NRL graphics updated...

[tolakram]

Looks familiar.

[gatorcane]

NHC very conservative on the intensity forecast.........as expected in this advisory....

[sunnyday]

The Weather Channel may not announce Irene until the NHC does, but a local met in So Fla just announced it!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

wxman, since this is going to be declared Irene later tonight since it has developed a good 24hrs earlier than I thought it would. Do you see it taking a more northerly course or things should stay about the same or even move more west now that models are showing stronger ridging and weaker trough passing well north of it? Does it make a difference it being a moderate to strong storm as opposed to a strong wave with this set-up?

[wxman57]

The NHC did a fantastic job with their TWOs on this system. It's been up for a while, but only recently got the code red.

I could argue differently. Just yesterday, they were still at only 30-40% on development chances through Sunday morning and then Sunday afternoon (the next 48 hrs). It wasn't until development was within about 12 hours that they went over 50% for development chances.

Disagree here. There was no cause for a >50% chance for an upgrade this time yesterday. Given the rather rapid organization phase we have seen today, I don't think this one is a good one to second guess. Most storms, given the setup from yesterday, aren't going to do what Irene did today.

Plus, there are lots of people around here who would have jumped all over them with a >50% chance given it's appearance in satellite imagery yesterday. Now, if recon had flown yesterday maybe the percentages would be different, but that just shows how valuable the ground truth is vs. satellite imagery alone.

MW

Sure there was cause for a higher estimate yesterday - it IS a TS now. Probabilities should have been 100% since Thursday evening to be correct. The outlook is for a 48-hour period, not the next 12 hours. It doesn't matter what the system looks like right now (when the discussion is typed). What matters is what could happen in 2 days.

One could argue there was strong model agreement on development as it approached the eastern Caribbean from 4-5 days ago, thus we had a 75% chance of development just beyond 48 hours on Thursday morning, 50% within 48 hrs and 90% beyond 48 hrs Friday morning (that was too low) and 60% early yesterday afternoon (again, too low, too).

That's enough on this, let's get back on topic.

[plasticup]

FWIW...

Code: Select all

         2005    Diff   2011
Arlene   Jun 09  -20  Jun 29  Arlene
Bret     Jun 29  -19  Jul 18  Bret
Cindy    Jul 05  -15  Jul 20  Cindy
Dennis   Jul 05  -22  Jul 27  Don
Emily    Jul 12  -20  Aug 01  Emily
Franklin Jul 22  -22  Aug 13  Franklin
Gert     Jul 24  -21  Aug 14  Gert
Harvey   Aug 03  -16  Aug 19  Harvey
Irene    Aug 07  -13  Aug 20  Irene
Jose     Aug 22  TBD  TBD     Jose


We had been running about 3 weeks behind 2005's pace. We shorted it to 2 1/2 weeks with Harvey and under 2 weeks with Irene. If 98L gets running soon, the lead will be even smaller...

Before comparisons to 2005 get too out of hand, it is worth remembering that we have had 0 hurricanes, while by this time in 2005 we had 2 major hurricanes: Cat4 Dennis and Cat5 Emily.

I know that is tangential to your point, but I think it is still worth saying.

[johngaltfla]

Boy are the next 24 hours worth of model runs going to be INTERESTING.....

[ConvergenceZone]

NHC very conservative on the intensity forecast.........as expected in this advisory....

Yep, I figured they would only call for a tropical storm after it emerged back into the water from the Islands..I would have been shocked if they would have called for a hurricane actually after being ripped to shreds by the islands.

[KWT]

wxman57, if it tracks west of there thats probably a good thing overall, though obviously its a fine line between it going up Florida and it going up north either side of Florida, at this point its still a little early to feel all that confident on the track.

At least its formed east of Fay, I was getting flashbacks of that system!

[shaggy]

If it reforms or gets pulled further north under the convection and becomes stronger before interaction with the big islands what kind of shift could we see in the models? Usually stronger and further north means feeling any weaknesses easier for storms but thats not a set rule by any means. I think the next 36 hours of models and how fast Irene can intensify could make for a torublesome forecast for the NHC.

Well, Irene has intensified quicker than all the models had anticipated. It really has pulled together nicely in these past 24 hours and if for some reason it continues to ramp up in intensity, I would tend to think that could be more troublesome for folks along the entire SE Atlantic U.S. coastline.

I remembered reading the Wilmington, NC discussion earlier today about the possibility of this system in tensifyimng quicker than expected. Here is a snippet from that AFD:


WORTH NOTING MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE AN IMPRESSIVE
TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE PERIOD. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THIS FORECAST...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT
LOCATION OF THE FEATURE AND ITS CONDITION THINK THE OCCASIONAL EAST
COAST SOLUTION SHOW BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT BELIEVABLE. FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN THE STORM WOULD NEED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

Right now, there is no doubt about the system developing rapidly these past 24 hours. Now it is a question of just how much stronger she will get in the short term in regards to how it may affect the track down the road. Generally the stronger the storm, the more it generally will feel the any weaknesses in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

Its interesting to me that the northern blob is also showing a more pronounced WNW movement as well. If that center relocates then lots can change in the modeling.

[BatzVI]

The Weather Channel may not announce Irene until the NHC does, but a local met in So Fla just announced it!

They just did....

[supercane]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 202317
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM IRENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
700 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FOUND A SMALL LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER JUST SOUTHWEST OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST AND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1006 MB. THE PLANE ALSO MEASURED A
MAXIMUM WIND OF 53 KT AT 1400 FT AND BELIEVABLE WINDS OF ABOUT
45 KT FROM THE SFMR. THUS ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON
TROPICAL STORM IRENE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.

A ROUGH ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/19. A LARGE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO STEER IRENE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO
OR THREE DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THAT TIME AND CAUSE
IRENE TO GRADUALLY DECELERATE. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A TRACK GENERALLY IN THE DIRECTION OF HISPANIOLA TO THE SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO. THEREAFTER...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE. THIS COULD ALLOW IRENE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS TO BRING THE STORM NORTH OF CUBA...WHILE
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN HAVE ENOUGH RIDGING IN PLACE TO KEEP THE
STORM IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NHC FORECAST WILL SPLIT THOSE TWO
IDEAS AND LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL VORTEX IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES AND IT WILL
PROBABLY TAKE SOME TIME TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...IRENE IS MOVING
OVER RATHER WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR EXPECTED. MOST OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE STORM TO A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING
HISPANIOLA...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND IS RATHER
CHALLENGING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION. ALTHOUGH
THE NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF
RE-INTENSIFICATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IF IRENE AVOIDS SIGNIFICANT LAND
INTERACTION.

BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR MANY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO.

NOTE...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE STANDARD 800 PM
AST/0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL
BE THE FULL ADVISORY PACKAGE ISSUED AT 1100 PM AST/0300 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2300Z 14.9N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 15.4N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 16.1N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 16.7N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 17.5N 69.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 19.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 21.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 24.0N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

000
WTNT34 KNHC 202313
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
700 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 58.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...
ANGUILLA...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* DOMINICA
* BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON
MONDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD
WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY SUNDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ON SUNDAY. IRENE COULD APPROACH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC LATE MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BY LATE MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE
WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

000
WTNT24 KNHC 202302
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IRENE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
2300 UTC SAT AUG 20 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT...
ANGUILLA...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* DOMINICA
* BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...AND MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON
MONDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 58.5W AT 20/2300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......105NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 58.5W AT 20/2300Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 57.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.4N 61.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...105NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.1N 64.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...105NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.7N 67.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.5N 69.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 74.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 21.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 24.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 58.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

[gatorcane]

NHC very conservative on the intensity forecast.........as expected in this advisory....

Yep, I figured they would only call for a tropical storm after it emerged back into the water from the Islands..I would have been shocked if they would have called for a hurricane actually....

Yeah but in the discussion, they will undoubtedly mention the intensity forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF.....but mention land interaction is going to make this a more uncertain than usual forecast.