ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vortex]

Anyone notice the HWRF Noaa experimental...If posted my apologies been out of the loop the last few days..GFDL/ECM/and HWRF NoAA all eye openers. Here's the 12Z...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noa ... =Animation

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe is on Orange Alert, which is the equivalent of Tropical Storm Warning, effective at 6PM.

In the mean time:

WTNT64 KNHC 082229
TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
630 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Good job ouragans and that's why we should keep in mind that Maria is not writting off... the best thing to do is to stay VERY vigilant and on our guard.

[ouragans]

Gustywind, did you check the last sat pics? Maria is not very organized, but there's a big burst of convection on the northern side. I would not be surprised to see her regain strength at night

[Aric Dunn]

Convection now covering the center.. looks like she will maintain.

[ouragans]

Convection now covering the center.. looks like she will maintain.

if Aric says so, it has to be true

no burial today, folks!

PR and SFL, be ready, this storm looks to be tenacious!

[Gustywind]

Pretty interresting discussion...

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Maria remains disorganized
Posted by: JeffMasters, 21:05 GMT le 08 septembre 2011

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria barely survived as a tropical storm today, but is now making a bit of a comeback. Satellite loops show that Maria has been badly ripped up by the 10 - 20 knots of wind shear affecting it. The low-level center has been exposed to view most of the day, and surface arc-shaped clouds have been racing away from the storm to the west this afternoon, indicating that dry air has been getting into Maria's thunderstorms and disrupting the storm. However, the areal coverage and intensity of Maria's thunderstorms have increased a little in the past two hours. Maria is passing close to buoy 41040, which measured sustained winds of 36 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 2:50 pm EDT.

Wind shear is predicted to fall to the low range on Friday as Maria approaches the Lesser Antilles. In addition, as I noted in this morning's post, Maria will be encountering an atmospheric disturbance known as a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) that is currently passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands. There is a great deal of upward-moving air in the vicinity of a CCKW, and will help strengthen the updrafts in Maria's thunderstorms, potentially intensifying the storm. None of our models are detailed enough to "see" CCKWs", so we may see more intensification of the storm than the models are calling for. I believe Maria will continue to organize and arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds. The latest run of the GFDL model predicts that Maria will be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon when it moves through the Virgin Islands, and a Category 2 hurricane Sunday night when it moves through the Turks and Caicos Islands. This is on the high end of what is possible, and I think it more likely that Maria will be a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds in the northern Lesser Antilles, 60 - 70 mph winds in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and a Category 1 hurricane in the Turks and Caicos Islands--assuming passage over Puerto Rico and the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic does not significantly disrupt the storm. A lower intensity, as forecast by NHC, is certainly quite possible, as Maria may continue to struggle with the dry air and wind shear besetting it.

The latest computer model runs have been trending more southwards, and the Northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahama Islands are all at high risk of a direct hit by Maria. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have once Maria approaches the U.S. East Coast. Most of the models foresee that Maria will turn north before arriving at Florida, and potentially threaten North Carolina, Bermuda, or Canada. The latest run of the GFDL model, though, brings Maria through the Bahamas to a point just 100 miles southeast of Miami as a hurricane on Tuesday afternoon. While this forecast is an outlier, and it is more likely that Maria will turn north before reaching Florida, it will be another two days before we will have a fair degree of confidence on when Maria will curve to the north.

[canes04]

Aric,

She appears to be slowing down as well and shear looks to be improving.
What are your thoughts with the future track and the latest model guidence.

[cycloneye]

Convection now covering the center.. looks like she will maintain.

if Aric says so, it has to be true

no burial today, folks!

PR and SFL, be ready, this storm looks to be tenacious!

The main threat for PR will be the torrential rains that will come,unless Maria gets more stronger than forecast and the wind factor increases. The rains expected for sure will cause massive floodings here as the grounds are saturated as the wave in front of Maria has brought plenty of rain today. Here is what Irene dumped.

[fci]

:uarrow: that verbiage was there however; I feel a more professional approach would be to advise that things still need to be monitored closely as time goes on. In any event, I trust the opinions of this board in lieu of mass media now. Glad I came across this board!

I agree, throw in an "expected" or "should" rather than make it sound so absolute....

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

She appears to be slowing down as well and shear looks to be improving.
What are your thoughts with the future track and the latest model guidence.

still moving west at 20mph. the apparent slow down is the convection that has built from the east to the west.

[wxman57]

I'm still not sure that Maria has maintained an LLC. That little vortex isn't visible any more. Can't tell if that thunderstorm developed over it or if it dissipated. In any case, I don't think the plane found any TS winds, did it? I didn't get any reports after the plane passed 55W.

[Adoquín]

Maria could be our next Hortense or Marilyn then. Look at those water temps in her route. If she is left alone by Mr. Shear, this could get ugly very quickly.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm still not sure that Maria has maintained an LLC. That little vortex isn't visible any more. Can't tell if that thunderstorm developed over it or if it dissipated. In any case, I don't think the plane found any TS winds, did it? I didn't get any reports after the plane passed 55W.

its been easy to track even after sun went down since the south side has no convection and you can see the eastward movement of the low level clouds. recon quit transmitting so we never were able to determine. 8pm advisory should have the data though I imagine

[Gustywind]

Gustywind, did you check the last sat pics? Maria is not very organized, but there's a big burst of convection on the northern side. I would not be surprised to see her regain strength at night

Looks like we should keep an eye on during the night... Whereas my question is are schools closed from this orange alert? That's always problematic when a system is churning near the islands.

[AJC3]

I'm still not sure that Maria has maintained an LLC. That little vortex isn't visible any more. Can't tell if that thunderstorm developed over it or if it dissipated. In any case, I don't think the plane found any TS winds, did it? I didn't get any reports after the plane passed 55W.

I agree it's tough, but I'm pretty sure it's still there, somewhere in the neighborhood of 13.5N and 53W, give or take, which would put it right along the southern edge of that convective blowup.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm still not sure that Maria has maintained an LLC. That little vortex isn't visible any more. Can't tell if that thunderstorm developed over it or if it dissipated. In any case, I don't think the plane found any TS winds, did it? I didn't get any reports after the plane passed 55W.

I agree it's tough, but I'm pretty sure it's still there, somewhere in the neighborhood of 13.5N and 53W, give or take, which would put it right along the southern edge of that convective blowup.

13.5 N ? it was at 13.1 N at 5pm and was still heading 275. the last image before the sun went down it was still at 13.1 maybe 13.2 ... but I guess its really not that big of a deal at this point. still no signs of it turning.

sorry correction it was 13.2 at 5pm

[AJC3]

I'm still not sure that Maria has maintained an LLC. That little vortex isn't visible any more. Can't tell if that thunderstorm developed over it or if it dissipated. In any case, I don't think the plane found any TS winds, did it? I didn't get any reports after the plane passed 55W.

I agree it's tough, but I'm pretty sure it's still there, somewhere in the neighborhood of 13.5N and 53W, give or take, which would put it right along the southern edge of that convective blowup.

13.5 N ? it was at 13.1 N at 5pm and was still heading 275. the last image before the sun went down it was still at 13.1 maybe 13.2 ... but I guess its really not that big of a deal at this point. still no signs of it turning.

sorry correction it was 13.2 at 5pm

Note the qualifiers. I'm just ball-parking it here.

[clfenwi]

Apparently flew a complete mission... a few random obs have trickled in, but this was the first current one. Plane headed home.

URNT15 KNHC 082316
AF306 0114A MARIA HDOB 37 20110908
230630 1259N 05658W 3288 09025 0480 -265 //// 203005 005 027 008 01

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 082304
AF306 0114A MARIA HDOB 15 20110908
192630 1417N 05420W 9581 00446 0073 +229 +219 062033 035 030 001 00
192700 1416N 05418W 9588 00441 0081 +229 +219 061032 033 029 002 00
192730 1415N 05417W 9578 00434 0073 +228 +219 056031 033 029 001 00
192800 1414N 05416W 9587 00440 0080 +230 +218 056031 033 026 000 00
192830 1414N 05416W 9587 00440 0079 +230 +216 058033 033 026 001 00
192900 1412N 05414W 9586 00440 0078 +229 +217 056033 034 028 002 00
192930 1411N 05413W 9584 00441 0078 +235 +207 062035 035 028 000 00
193000 1410N 05412W 9586 00440 0078 +231 +210 061036 037 027 000 00
193030 1409N 05411W 9577 00434 0073 +229 +212 061036 037 029 001 00
193100 1408N 05410W 9586 00439 0078 +231 +210 063038 038 028 002 00
193130 1407N 05409W 9588 00438 0076 +230 +212 061036 037 029 002 00
193200 1406N 05408W 9587 00438 0078 +231 +212 060035 035 026 003 00
193230 1405N 05407W 9580 00444 0073 +229 +216 059032 033 027 001 00
193300 1404N 05405W 9587 00437 0071 +230 +216 057030 031 027 001 00
193330 1403N 05404W 9592 00434 0072 +230 +219 052030 033 029 001 00
193400 1402N 05403W 9586 00439 0077 +231 +221 048030 031 028 001 00
193430 1401N 05402W 9657 00373 0076 +236 +222 048030 031 027 000 00
193500 1359N 05401W 9664 00367 0075 +238 +222 052030 031 026 003 00
193530 1358N 05400W 9662 00369 0075 +240 +221 054032 033 029 001 00
193600 1357N 05359W 9662 00367 0075 +239 +222 053031 032 027 001 00
$$
;

[artist]

16 missing

000
URNT15 KNHC 082305
AF306 0114A MARIA HDOB 17 20110908
194630 1335N 05336W 9663 00361 0067 +236 +216 056034 034 026 000 00
194700 1334N 05335W 9649 00372 0066 +232 +219 058032 034 025 001 00
194730 1333N 05334W 9664 00357 0066 +232 +222 054030 032 027 000 00
194800 1332N 05333W 9662 00361 0066 +234 +224 051029 030 026 000 00
194830 1331N 05331W 9667 00355 0066 +235 +221 053030 031 026 000 00
194900 1329N 05330W 9663 00358 0064 +236 +224 052029 030 025 000 00
194930 1328N 05329W 9663 00358 0063 +236 +225 049028 029 024 000 00
195000 1327N 05328W 9662 00357 0064 +236 +224 048028 029 023 000 00
195030 1326N 05326W 9661 00359 0063 +238 +218 047028 029 022 000 00
195100 1325N 05325W 9664 00354 0061 +244 +213 044028 029 021 000 00
195130 1323N 05324W 9662 00357 0061 +245 +216 042028 028 021 000 00
195200 1322N 05323W 9660 00357 0061 +244 +218 041028 029 021 000 00
195230 1321N 05321W 9663 00356 0061 +242 +218 040028 028 021 000 00
195300 1320N 05320W 9663 00355 0060 +242 +219 040028 028 021 000 00
195330 1318N 05319W 9663 00354 0061 +237 +226 035026 027 022 000 00
195400 1317N 05318W 9663 00355 0061 +237 +227 034024 026 022 001 00
195430 1316N 05316W 9664 00355 0061 +239 +228 032023 025 020 000 00
195500 1315N 05315W 9661 00357 0061 +240 +227 035025 026 022 001 00
195530 1313N 05314W 9666 00352 0060 +241 +225 037026 027 022 000 00
195600 1312N 05312W 9658 00357 0059 +241 +224 036025 028 024 000 00
$$