ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

Looking forward to the info from the AF plane headed out that way in a couple hours. We'll get a better idea of where the lowest pressures are then. I'm seriously concerned for the predicted rainfall amounts with this system.

[ROCK]

I wouldn't think NHC would relocate the center without confirmation from a NOAA flight and real observations.

They do indicate in the forecast discussion that a center relocation is quite possible in the next 24 hours and that this system is going to move very slowly.

looky where the low level convergence is set up shop now......of course you have 30knts -20knt shear screaming over this thing because of the ULL....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Stormcenter]

Yes they do mention relocation but further north and not south like some are speculating right now on the board.
Oh well we shall see.

I wouldn't think NHC would relocate the center without confirmation from a NOAA flight and real observations.

They do indicate in the forecast discussion that a center relocation is quite possible in the next 24 hours and that this system is going to move very slowly.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yep.

Mountains out of molehills. Let the pro's do their jobs.

nobody knows for sure. We are all just playing the game of speculation. Thats what its all about anyway isnt it. Anyways per the latest NHC discusiion they say it could reform anywhere within the broad circulation and that area of interest is definitely within the range. So we could be right or maybe not. The north relocation is just one possibilty based off the GFS.
Did notice they slowed the forecast track down some and will probably do so more tomorrow. Looks like almost anything could happen with this system this weekend.

[Portastorm]

Yes they do mention relocation but further north and not south like some are speculating right now on the board.
Oh well we shall see.

I wouldn't think NHC would relocate the center without confirmation from a NOAA flight and real observations.

They do indicate in the forecast discussion that a center relocation is quite possible in the next 24 hours and that this system is going to move very slowly.

To be fair, the NHC does not say the center will reform north ... they say a center relocation is possible anywhere within the large overall circulation and then they reference the GFS model which relocates the center further north as an example of that possibility.

[bamajammer4eva]

Like i said LLCs like to migrate to the lowest pressure ie being under strongest convection....

I cant tell if a center reformed more south but if it has then you can throw about all the models you see tonight out the window....

If it did that far enough south and east that could be some good news since that could put the storm going more towards MS/AL/Florida and and put NOLA on the drier side rather than getting 24" of rain.

[ROCK]

Like i said LLCs like to migrate to the lowest pressure ie being under strongest convection....

I cant tell if a center reformed more south but if it has then you can throw about all the models you see tonight out the window....

If it has, which direction could the system move? West?

The new NAM doesn't look good for Texas. I think the extreme SE corner gets 1-2", while most of the state is .10" or less.

word of advice....never look at the NAM for tropical tracks...it is bad....or you might look at the upper air dynamics coming in that might effect a track....NAM does well over the CONUS and local NWS folks rely on it...

[ROCK]

Like i said LLCs like to migrate to the lowest pressure ie being under strongest convection....

I cant tell if a center reformed more south but if it has then you can throw about all the models you see tonight out the window....

If it did that far enough south and east that could be some good news since that could put the storm going more towards MS/AL/Florida and and put NOLA on the drier side rather than getting 24" of rain.

good news that it has more time over water? huh? are you hoping for a major hurricane?

[ROCK]

the NHC cannot predict center relo's nor can any model....we saw that with Irene at one point...

[bamajammer4eva]

Like i said LLCs like to migrate to the lowest pressure ie being under strongest convection....

I cant tell if a center reformed more south but if it has then you can throw about all the models you see tonight out the window....

If it did that far enough south and east that could be some good news since that could put the storm going more towards MS/AL/Florida and and put NOLA on the drier side rather than getting 24" of rain.

good news that it has more time over water? huh? are you hoping for a major hurricane?

Of course not but its only expected to reach 60MPH so rain is the main threat as everyone's been saying. Just saying New Orleans don't need 24" of rain. That's probably the worst place in the country to see that much rain.

[Annie Oakley]

North north north.....

PROLONGED PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

[mattpetre]

So when the steering flow becomes exceptionally weak, I would think that perhaps the convective bursts themselves may have as much steering (relocating) effect as the typical synoptics do?

[psyclone]

Yes they do mention relocation but further north and not south like some are speculating right now on the board.
Oh well we shall see.

I wouldn't think NHC would relocate the center without confirmation from a NOAA flight and real observations.

They do indicate in the forecast discussion that a center relocation is quite possible in the next 24 hours and that this system is going to move very slowly.

they mention the gfs suggests a relocation to the north. they didn't say they agreed. but they seemed open to the possibility of a center relocation. the only reason i mentioned it is past experience. we've seen this happen with poorly organized storms in their formative stages. i see nothing wrong with speculation on a tropical forum. i don't have a dog in this hunt as any center relocation shouldn't impact my weather one way or another.

[ROCK]

pick your poison I guess.....rain or a major....not sure what I would want.....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Our local ocm(state climatologist) just gave a brief update and said not to be surprised to see the NHC relocate the llc further SE under the deeper convection before the 4am advisory. Said the same thing ROCK said: deeper convection/ convergence and lower pressures. I know, take it for what its worth.

[Frank P]

pick your poison I guess.....rain or a major....not sure what I would want.....

I think Texas would pick the rain...

[ROCK]

pick your poison I guess.....rain or a major....not sure what I would want.....

I think Texas would pick the rain...

ha...you would be right...our lakes are way down....really running out of water literally...

[mattpetre]

I'm siding with Rock and Cantore (pretty good company) on this particular speculation. I think we'll be looking at a whole new system setup in 4 hrs...

[Annie Oakley]

Sounds sensible to me Cyclone Mike....wonder how far SE

[Raininfyr]

pick your poison I guess.....rain or a major....not sure what I would want.....

Would not want either. Would love to see the models trend west for the sake of Texas. I believe we will tell where this will be going or not going tomorrow.