ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[JonathanBelles]

Tropical Weather this morning. Invest 91L is looking to be very close to an upgrade to TD 5 with winds of 35 mph estimated. Pressure of 1007 mb heading a little north of due west. Recon planes will be out in 91L in the next few hours to find out exactly the strength/health/direction and the upper level conditions facing 91L. I've plotted the spaghetti plots from the last run, and they show that the lesser antilles will get no less than a weak storm before 91L heads likely towards the eastern Bahamas. Also, I've got my eyes on a system in the eastern Atlantic just coming off Africa, which will likely be our next system to watch.

Blog: http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... epression/

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[knotimpaired]

http://jonathanbelles.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/073111-91l-9am.jpg

Tropical Weather this morning. Invest 91L is looking to be very close to an upgrade to TD 5 with winds of 35 mph estimated. Pressure of 1007 mb heading a little north of due west. Recon planes will be out in 91L in the next few hours to find out exactly the strength/health/direction and the upper level conditions facing 91L. I've plotted the spaghetti plots from the last run, and they show that the lesser antilles will get no less than a weak storm before 91L heads likely towards the eastern Bahamas. Also, I've got my eyes on a system in the eastern Atlantic just coming off Africa, which will likely be our next system to watch.

Blog: http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... epression/

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You have a PM

[Cyclenall]

I think it's a TD right now, very organized and convection does look weird but just 8 hours ago it didn't look very good either. Recon will probably find a TS making this the 5th TC in a row to skip TD status.

[Aric Dunn]

not that its a huge indication... but the 12z BAM models show no recurve anymore and all are wnw heading into the SE bahamas..

[SeminoleWind]

GFDL and HWRF are worrisome

[Dean4Storms]

watch this thing just start splitting... very strange..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

I think I see the reason for the struggle to develop there. Note the wave cresting and then gulping the dry air underneath it. We've had no real deep sustained convection which is paramount to TC developing and deepening.

I believe the dry air got entrained into this TW/TD and has limited the convection.

Believe it will take another day or two for this dry air to completely moisten up so we may have this Storm getting further west in the northern Carib. before any turn true NW. I believe we could have the Bahamas and a possible east coast brush or threat in the making here.

Disclaimer: Just my opinion and nothing official. Get all your official info. from official sources.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Its as if the models have spread apart and are not in close agreement like before. That would be heading to Florida.

[jinftl]

8am model runs are hinting at ridging turning the system more to the west???

[Aric Dunn]

yep hwrf heading towards florida. along with nogaps and gfdl... and euro...

[Extratropical94]

I think it's a TD right now, very organized and convection does look weird but just 8 hours ago it didn't look very good either. Recon will probably find a TS making this the 5th TC in a row to skip TD status.

Didn't Bret start off as TD Two? Correct me if I'm wrong.

[HurricaneWarning92]

so i guess we have to watch this closely as well huh

[Dean4Storms]

I believe it makes it further west especially if it runs over the bigger Islands. That alone would keep it from deepening as much and feeling the trough especially just a weakness.

[wxman57]

It appears to be experiencing increased low-level flow that's elongating it this morning. Development cannot occur until it slows down, and that slowdown won't occur until it gets past about 57-58W. Good news for the islanders (Lesser Antilles), because chances of it pulling a Tomas are lower. It will probably be an organizing TS as it enters the Caribbean rather than a hurricane. May be good news for the U.S. and BVI because a slower development means it will track a bit more to the west before taking the northward turn, could be a DR landfall vs. a PR landfall on Wednesday. I do think it will likely be a hurricane by then.

[cycloneye]

No renumber so far which means they will wait for recon unless they make a special advisory earlier than that.

[hurricaneCW]

Also the time of year, early August, would favor more ridging and a bigger chance that the storm goes further west instead of mid Sept where large troughs easily push storms away.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

getting flashbacks of Andrew, Jeanne with this one. thinking it may end up being a recurve that ends up getting shunted into FL.
worse would be a total recurve that crosses southern florida, comes out over the gulf to restrengthen, and then crosses back over through tampa bay and then up the east coast. -the worst case scenario. which I highly doubt would pan out here...but this could set up that way if a ridge came back, then retreated again, while a storm was tracking along the western periphery of it.

[Evil Jeremy]

yep hwrf heading towards florida. along with nogaps and gfdl... and euro...

The Euro 00z was a recurve run. There isn't a 06z, is there?

[Aric Dunn]

yep hwrf heading towards florida. along with nogaps and gfdl... and euro...

The Euro 00z was a recurve run. There isn't a 06z, is there?

well it splits the system...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

It appears to be experiencing increased low-level flow that's elongating it this morning. Development cannot occur until it slows down, and that slowdown won't occur until it gets past about 57-58W. Good news for the islanders (Lesser Antilles), because chances of it pulling a Tomas are lower. It will probably be an organizing TS as it enters the Caribbean rather than a hurricane. May be good news for the U.S. and BVI because a slower development means it will track a bit more to the west before taking the northward turn, could be a DR landfall vs. a PR landfall on Wednesday. I do think it will likely be a hurricane by then.

Going over the DR would likely weaken it significantly, which is a plus. However, if it remains weaker, and has to track further west before recurve, then that increases the possibility of that ridge building back further before it gets up near the FL penninsula--increasing the chance of US mainland landfall IMHO.

Your take?

[boca]

Is it possible to get 2 storms out of 91L since it split.