ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

The convection is covering the LLC again but moving west at 21 MPH she isn't likely to intensify.
Looks like they expect a slowdown near -58 W if I read the HWRF correctly. Hopefully the islands in the Eastern Caribbean don't get too much wind and flooding.

[Vortex]

H54 directly over Puerto Rico...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL054.gif

[SouthDadeFish]

18Z HWRF and 18Z GFDL are much farther east than previous runs. Both recurve well away from CONUS. Although the GFDL would give the Bahamas another beating.

18Z GFDL:



18Z HWRF:

[KWT]

Gotta laugh at the GFDL for thinking this will be a 981mbs hurricane by 60hrs time...no chance!

[Vortex]

12Z/18Z GFDL positions at H60 identical...loooking for consistancy it doesnt get better so far...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The convection is covering the LLC again but moving west at 21 MPH she isn't likely to intensify.
Looks like they expect a slowdown near -58 W if I read the HWRF correctly. Hopefully the islands in the Eastern Caribbean don't get too much wind and flooding.

That was the longitude where Irene was born (58W)

[Vortex]

18Z HWRF and 18Z GFDL are much farther east than previous runs. Both recurve well away from CONUS. Although the GFDL would give the Bahamas another beating.

18Z GFDL:



18Z HWRF:

guess I can stop posting..you beat me too the punch!!

[SouthDadeFish]

Sorry to kill the drama Vortex!

The models are in pretty good agreement now.

[KWT]

Does really rake the T&C though before hand.

HWRF probably much better for the strength, GFDL does its usual losing of the plot!

[wxman57]

That little vortex disappears beneath convection on my loop near 13.5N/53.5W (I have 1 deg lines on my loop). Recon found NE winds there at 13.5N/53.5W, though. See the yellow X on the image below. That's where I lost the vortex beneath the cirrus. The area in the yellow circle looks like it's circulating the wrong way.

[Meteorcane]

No consistency between model runs I guess we'll have to wait a little longer.

[tobol.7uno]

Re post of the last image with Maria's last estimated position. Looks like recon data supports a 40 mph TS just to the SW of where she was thought to be. Pressure about 1006 mb

[artist]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 23:26Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Thursday, 21:16Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 13.7N 51.8W
Location: 527 miles (848 km) to the E (85°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 390 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 110° at 35 knots (From the ESE at ~ 40.2 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 25°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 21°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1007 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 90° at 30 knots (From the E at ~ 34.5 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 32 knots (~ 36.8mph)

[ouragans]

Gustywind, did you check the last sat pics? Maria is not very organized, but there's a big burst of convection on the northern side. I would not be surprised to see her regain strength at night

Looks like we should keep an eye on during the night... Whereas my question is are schools closed from this orange alert? That's always problematic when a system is churning near the islands.

As per the news at 7:30PM, no decision has been taken yet, and the prefet (governor) will make up his mind tomorrow. If I was in his position, I would close schools after class tomorrow morning

[wxman57]

Gustywind, did you check the last sat pics? Maria is not very organized, but there's a big burst of convection on the northern side. I would not be surprised to see her regain strength at night

Looks like we should keep an eye on during the night... Whereas my question is are schools closed from this orange alert? That's always problematic when a system is churning near the islands.

As per the news at 7:30PM, no decision has been taken yet, and the prefet (governor) will make up his mind tomorrow. If I was in his position, I would close schools after class tomorrow morning

At the rate it's moving, squalls will be reaching Guadeloupe before sunrise tomorrow. But it looks like no more than very low-end TS winds at most (30-40 mph with higher gusts). A good bit of rain, though.

[gatorcane]

No consistency between model runs I guess we'll have to wait a little longer.

models seem in pretty good agreement on a track through or east of the Central Bahamas......no models bring it to the CONUS.

We had some teasers today but in the end tracks have shifted east again. Too much of a weakness off of the east coast of the CONUS

[Gustywind]

Gustywind, did you check the last sat pics? Maria is not very organized, but there's a big burst of convection on the northern side. I would not be surprised to see her regain strength at night

Looks like we should keep an eye on during the night... Whereas my question is are schools closed from this orange alert? That's always problematic when a system is churning near the islands.

As per the news at 7:30PM, no decision has been taken yet, and the prefet (governor) will make up his mind tomorrow. If I was in his position, I would close schools after class tomorrow morning

Yeah, i was watching the TV too. Agree with you; in terms of timing that could be wise decision to close th schools after tommorow morning. Hope that he will hear you

[Aric Dunn]

So according to the much delayed recon. it appears that there is still a closed circ. obviously the south side is going to be weak with such a fast motion.

[Gustywind]

Bursting nicely. Looks like a big blob has popped ahead of the presumed center and another close to the circulation.

Loop

[cycloneye]

SSD dvorak mantains Maria as TS.

08/2345 UTC 13.3N 53.7W T2.5/2.5 MARIA -- Atlantic