ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[HurricaneWarning92]

getting flashbacks of Andrew, Jeanne with this one. thinking it may end up being a recurve that ends up getting shunted into FL.
worse would be a total recurve that crosses southern florida, comes out over the gulf to restrengthen, and then crosses back over through tampa bay and then up the east coast. -the worst case scenario. which I highly doubt would pan out here...but this could set up that way if a ridge came back, then retreated again, while a storm was tracking along the western periphery of it.

Only Andrew went north of the islands, while Jeanne decided to give us a dance making that loop before making landfall in florida.

[pgoss11]

The longer this system takes to organize the more I feel this becomes a SE coast threat. Getting slightly more concerned this morning. It's a double edged sword though..hoping it ramps ups quickly is bad for our island friends, but good for us.

[HurricaneWarning92]

It appears to be experiencing increased low-level flow that's elongating it this morning. Development cannot occur until it slows down, and that slowdown won't occur until it gets past about 57-58W. Good news for the islanders (Lesser Antilles), because chances of it pulling a Tomas are lower. It will probably be an organizing TS as it enters the Caribbean rather than a hurricane. May be good news for the U.S. and BVI because a slower development means it will track a bit more to the west before taking the northward turn, could be a DR landfall vs. a PR landfall on Wednesday. I do think it will likely be a hurricane by then.

Going over the DR would likely weaken it significantly, which is a plus. However, if it remains weaker, and has to track further west before recurve, then that increases the possibility of that ridge building back further before it gets up near the FL penninsula--increasing the chance of US mainland landfall IMHO.

Your take?

It could weaken significantly depending if the center goes trough the westernmost part of the island, which in that case would weaken it since its very mountainous, while the easternmost is not so much.

[Extratropical94]

Is it possible to get 2 storms out of 91L since it split.

It would be unlikely because the one would somehow absorb the other at an early stage due to the proximity.

[hurricanedude]

Residents of the Caribean Islands, Bahamas, EGOM, East Coast from Florida North to Maine, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada will all be targets in the coming days as models start flip flopping...LOL

[ROCK]

I wouldnt be to sure of a up and out scenario with 91L.....JMO

[Gustywind]

[SFLcane]

Experimental FIM model also came westward from its previous run...

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=fimy:&runTime=2011073100&plotName=wind_10m&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=41&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=240&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244&wjet=1

[wxman57]

It appears to be experiencing increased low-level flow that's elongating it this morning. Development cannot occur until it slows down, and that slowdown won't occur until it gets past about 57-58W. Good news for the islanders (Lesser Antilles), because chances of it pulling a Tomas are lower. It will probably be an organizing TS as it enters the Caribbean rather than a hurricane. May be good news for the U.S. and BVI because a slower development means it will track a bit more to the west before taking the northward turn, could be a DR landfall vs. a PR landfall on Wednesday. I do think it will likely be a hurricane by then.

Going over the DR would likely weaken it significantly, which is a plus. However, if it remains weaker, and has to track further west before recurve, then that increases the possibility of that ridge building back further before it gets up near the FL penninsula--increasing the chance of US mainland landfall IMHO.

Your take?

That's a pretty strong ridge forecast to remain over the south-central and southeast U.S. all of next week. Trof off the east coast should allow for recurving north to the east of the U.S.

Oh, and I see an OFCI track (NHC track) in the model data now. Takes it into southern PR early Wednesday then to the SE Bahamas early Friday with a gradual bend to the NW.

[boca]

Is that a new model that just came out?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just keep watching. This looks to be a classic early recurve only to gradually keep moving west scenario. See it at least once every year. Only difference with this, is it is not in any hurry to develop and will keep it chugging to the west until is does so. So right from the start could make some big differences in the long range track. Also most, especially gfs, always seem to start off showing a strong trough picking a storm up but low and behold the trough doesnt dig nearly as deep or strong as forecast and only pulls it up to the north for a while then ridging builds back in and turns it back west. Plenty of time to watch just something to keep in the back of one's mind.

[ROCK]

yep hwrf heading towards florida. along with nogaps and gfdl... and euro...

The Euro 00z was a recurve run. There isn't a 06z, is there?

no they have a 12Z at 1:30 CST.....

[WeatherGuesser]

Tropical Weather this morning.

Where is the .kmz/.kml file for that?

[SFLcane]

Is that a new model that just came out?

http://fim.noaa.gov/fimdocu_rb.pdf

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fimz&domain=244&run_time=05+Jun+2011+-+00Z

[ROCK]

06z NOGAPS

is pretty jacked up looking...but might not be that far off....basically Hispa destroys it.....

[Evil Jeremy]

What time is recon expected to enter 91L?

[northjaxpro]

Also the time of year, early August, would favor more ridging and a bigger chance that the storm goes further west instead of mid Sept where large troughs easily push storms away.

That is true. Occasionally, troughs this time of year in early August often do not dig far enough south to pull tropical cyclones out to sea.

We have lots of time to monitor the trends of the models, but for the moment, it appears that the models are back to now hinting that the ridge later this week will build back in to possibly block future Emily's path out to sea. We shall see if this trend with the models will continue as we progress through this week.

This is going to be quite a week for monitoring the progress of future Emily. Everyone really needs to pay attention from the Caribbean islands, The Bahamas, The SE US Coast and even possibly the Gulf Coast as well.

['CaneFreak]

What makes you so sure this is a recurve? I really don't see a large sweeping trough to pick this thing up. All I see is a very weak shortwave trough that *may* allow for the cyclone to sit and stall for a while before before bending back west as the ridge builds back in. Thanks

It appears to be experiencing increased low-level flow that's elongating it this morning. Development cannot occur until it slows down, and that slowdown won't occur until it gets past about 57-58W. Good news for the islanders (Lesser Antilles), because chances of it pulling a Tomas are lower. It will probably be an organizing TS as it enters the Caribbean rather than a hurricane. May be good news for the U.S. and BVI because a slower development means it will track a bit more to the west before taking the northward turn, could be a DR landfall vs. a PR landfall on Wednesday. I do think it will likely be a hurricane by then.

Going over the DR would likely weaken it significantly, which is a plus. However, if it remains weaker, and has to track further west before recurve, then that increases the possibility of that ridge building back further before it gets up near the FL penninsula--increasing the chance of US mainland landfall IMHO.

Your take?

That's a pretty strong ridge forecast to remain over the south-central and southeast U.S. all of next week. Trof off the east coast should allow for recurving north to the east of the U.S.

Oh, and I see an OFCI track (NHC track) in the model data now. Takes it into southern PR early Wednesday then to the SE Bahamas early Friday with a gradual bend to the NW.

[RL3AO]

What time is recon expected to enter 91L?

2pm eastern or a bit before.

[SFLcane]

57 whats your take on the westward trend on the 06z and 12z models GFDL ,HWRF and BAM models for example.