ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[alch97]

I'm new at this, but last I checked (8:48 pm EST), the models do not seem in agreement. The GFDL and UKMET still have Maria in the Southern Bahamas. What am I doing wrong?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track also mantains Maria as a TS.

AL, 14, 2011090900, , BEST, 0, 132N, 537W, 35, 1005, TS

[artist]

did anyone check the initialization of the last models run to see which was closest to the actual at the time they began?

[gatorcane]

I'm new at this, but last I checked (8:48 pm EST), the models do not seem in agreement. The GFDL and UKMET still have Maria in the Southern Bahamas. What am I doing wrong?

18z GFDL recurves through the east Bahamas about 175 miles east of Florida which is about the same thing the GFS and ECMWF are doing. Click this link to see the loop

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Advisory positions plotted with current satellite image (which has changed since mission left the storm).

[AdamFirst]

Models are HARDLY in agreement, one run doesnt start a trend

We have to wait until this storm is beyond the Antilles

[SuperLikeNintendo]

Maria, in my opinion, is the most unpredictable system this season thus far.

I'm not smarter than computers, nor will I ever be, but if wouldn't be surprised if I sat down in my cubicle tomorrow, loaded the newest models, and saw it coming straight for SO FL.

She's still weak, there's still ridging, and new formations wouldn't surprise me at all. Also, there are a few things Nate could do that could influence the path of Maria.

I hereby deem Maria Ninjacane. Let's see what happens tomorrow morning over my cup of Caramel Flavored Coffee.

[Gustywind]

How surprising it is ... we were speaking about that bad memories this afternoon, waouw. How these journalists have thought of Marylin 1995? That's a bit curious, time will tell.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... tilles.fr/

Here is the poll of our daily newspaper FranceAntilles:

Give your opinion!
The trajectory of the storm tropical Maria remains uncertain, but is not reminiscent of Marilyn in 1995. Are you concerned about this similarity?

Yes, this is not good sign

No, each phenomenon is different

I expect to see its evolution

[cycloneye]

The next mission will depart on Friday morning around 5:30 AM EDT.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL STORM MARIA
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71     
       A. 09/12Z,18Z               
       B. AFXXX 0214A MARIA     
       C. 09/0930Z                 
       D. 13.8N 57.3W                       
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT         



[wxman57]

So according to the much delayed recon. it appears that there is still a closed circ. obviously the south side is going to be weak with such a fast motion.

I didn't see much in the recon to verify a closed circulation. And it still looks terrible on satellite.

[gatorcane]

maybe the circulation will reform (or form depending on how you look at it), further north under the deep convection.

Models would need to shift more east if that happens.

[sfwx]

maybe the circulation will reform (or form depending on how you look at it), further north under the deep convection.

Models would need to shift more east if that happens.

Or maybe this will be an open wave.....

[artist]

missing obs 23

URNT15 KNHC 090011
AF306 0114A MARIA HDOB 23 20110908
204630 1214N 05125W 9661 00362 0066 +243 +224 160022 023 020 000 00
204700 1216N 05125W 9666 00358 0067 +245 +221 161022 023 020 000 00
204730 1218N 05125W 9664 00359 0067 +242 +226 159021 023 020 000 00
204800 1219N 05125W 9664 00361 0067 +242 +224 162022 022 019 001 00
204830 1221N 05125W 9663 00362 0068 +242 +224 159022 023 020 000 00
204900 1223N 05125W 9664 00360 0068 +243 +222 160021 022 019 000 00
204930 1225N 05125W 9663 00362 0069 +244 +220 163021 022 020 001 00
205000 1226N 05125W 9666 00362 0069 +240 +226 160020 020 019 000 00
205030 1228N 05125W 9664 00362 0070 +240 +224 160020 020 016 000 00
205100 1230N 05126W 9661 00365 0071 +240 +225 158019 020 019 000 00
205130 1232N 05126W 9664 00362 0071 +240 +223 157020 020 018 000 00
205200 1233N 05126W 9662 00365 0071 +240 +224 153020 021 017 000 00
205230 1235N 05126W 9664 00362 0071 +240 +224 154021 021 019 000 00
205300 1237N 05126W 9662 00364 0071 +240 +225 151020 021 017 000 00
205330 1238N 05126W 9666 00362 0072 +240 +224 151020 020 016 000 00
205400 1240N 05126W 9663 00365 0072 +242 +220 155019 020 017 001 00
205430 1242N 05126W 9660 00367 0073 +243 +218 155020 020 018 000 00
205500 1244N 05126W 9665 00364 0072 +240 +222 154020 020 018 000 00
205530 1245N 05126W 9663 00364 0072 +242 +220 152021 021 020 000 00
205600 1245N 05126W 9663 00364 0072 +242 +221 151022 022 020 001 00

..........................................................................................

missing obs 24

URNT15 KNHC 090014
AF306 0114A MARIA HDOB 24 20110908
205630 1249N 05126W 9660 00367 0071 +241 +223 147022 023 020 000 00
205700 1250N 05126W 9662 00364 0071 +242 +225 145022 022 020 000 00
205730 1252N 05126W 9662 00365 0071 +241 +224 146022 023 021 000 00
205800 1254N 05126W 9663 00365 0071 +241 +226 145022 023 018 000 00
205830 1256N 05126W 9659 00369 0072 +242 +226 145021 022 019 000 00
205900 1257N 05126W 9664 00364 0072 +241 +225 144022 023 018 000 00
205930 1259N 05126W 9664 00365 0073 +241 +224 146023 023 017 000 00
210000 1301N 05126W 9664 00365 0072 +240 +223 145024 024 018 000 00
210030 1303N 05126W 9663 00366 0072 +242 +221 144024 024 021 000 00
210100 1304N 05126W 9662 00367 0073 +245 +218 138025 025 020 000 00
210130 1306N 05126W 9666 00364 0074 +242 +222 137024 024 018 000 00
210200 1308N 05126W 9663 00369 0076 +240 +225 131023 024 018 001 00
210230 1309N 05126W 9664 00368 0077 +240 +228 130020 021 017 000 00
210300 1311N 05126W 9663 00370 0078 +240 +228 128021 021 018 001 00
210330 1313N 05126W 9663 00371 0079 +240 +226 127023 023 018 000 00
210400 1314N 05126W 9664 00371 0079 +240 +220 125024 024 018 000 00
210430 1316N 05127W 9664 00370 0079 +242 +220 125023 023 018 000 00
210500 1318N 05127W 9666 00368 0079 +241 +226 119024 025 022 000 00
210530 1319N 05127W 9662 00374 0079 +240 +225 115026 027 020 000 00
210600 1321N 05127W 9664 00371 0078 +243 +224 114026 027 021 001 00

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
0300 UTC FRI SEP 09 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...AND SAINT
KITTS
* ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...AND MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 54.6W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011

...CENTER OF MARIA STILL MOVING WESTWARD...NEW TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 54.6W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...AND SAINT
KITTS
* ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...AND MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA SHOULD APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
FRIDAY... MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41040 RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS OF 38 MPH...61 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
BY LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA LATE FRIDAY...SATURDAY...
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA SHOULD APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
FRIDAY... MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41040 RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS OF 38 MPH...61 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

[CrazyC83]

Maria might be a fighter! We'll see what happens. But this so reminds me of Irene.

[wxman57]

Notice anything interesting in the last 3 advisories? They all have the 120hr point at 75W. Same exact point at 15Z and 21Z. 1 deg farther north at 03Z.

[CrazyC83]

Notice anything interesting in the last 3 advisories? They all have the 120hr point at 75W. Same exact point at 15Z and 21Z. 1 deg farther north at 03Z.

Probably lack of confidence more than anything.

[cycloneye]

Second landfall on 2011 season in Puerto Rico.