ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[WmE]

REally nice deep convection to the north of the circulation, its hard to imagine the center won't try to tuck into that deeper convection some point in the next 12hrs and strengthen from there...

The fact its blew up like that just after Dmin is abit of a worry as well...[/quote
ive been seeing this used a lot but what is Dmin and Dmax

Diurnal Minimum Maximum.

[northjaxpro]

Sometimes you just have to look at the bigger picture...lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Irene is a big ole girl!!! I like em big..

Boy looking at that looop ,makes you think she could get north of the islands

Considering the manner in which Irene is intensifying, I would not be surprised she gains a bit more latitude to move just north of the islands. That is certainly now a plausible possibility.

[Tampa_God]

I think the NHC is being too modest here. Many of us were expecting a TS as well, but to be at 50 mph on it's first advisory I think many would had doubt. This morning, it didn't even look that good. And throughout the day, Irene got her act together, tightened, and this is what we have now. Conditions are almost perfect for RI with Irene. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a hurricane before tomorrow is over.

I like your way of thinking!! You got balls and I am with ya

Haha I just say it as I see it. I think I know what the NHC is doing here, not trying to over exaggerate the intensify before Haiti, but why risk it? Everything is set up for Irene to intensify and intensify fast, so I'll actually be surprised to see this not a hurricane by this time tomorrow.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Aric Dunn]

Now I'm wondering if I should put the shutters on...she looks pretty good out there...any thoughts?

wont hurt.. just incase she wants to bomb out tonight and tomorrow.. all it takes is that one random branch fly through the window..

[jinftl]

If so, a hurricane watch should be issued for Puerto Rico maybe? I would guess hurricane watches for parts of Hispanola aren't far off.

I think the NHC is being too modest here. Many of us were expecting a TS as well, but to be at 50 mph on it's first advisory I think many would had doubt. This morning, it didn't even look that good. And throughout the day, Irene got her act together, tightened, and this is what we have now. Conditions are almost perfect for RI with Irene. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a hurricane before tomorrow is over.

I like your way of thinking!! You got balls and I am with ya

Haha I just say it as I see it. I think I know what the NHC is doing here, not trying to over exaggerate the intensify before Haiti, but why risk it? Everything is set up for Irene to intensify and intensify fast, so I'll actually be surprised to see this not a hurricane by this time tomorrow.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Driftin]

Just how close to PR is this going to get? Im starting to get nervous.

[Aric Dunn]

Just how close to PR is this going to get? Im starting to get nervous.

very close and the north side will be the worst.

[gatorcane]

Kindaof looks like it is heading straight towards Puerto Rico doesn't it. If the center reforms further north, it is going to change things for the short-term (Puerto Rico impacts) and the long-term....I really hope she does not decided to track north of Hispaniola for Bahamas/Florida's sake. Though that would be good for Hispaniola. Thankfully no models show this solution, but you have to wonder, are they too conservative now on their initial intensity?

[cpdaman]

Imo the key for fl having a higher shot of staring down a major is how far north the center consolidates tonite. And the accompanying chance the further a north shift may move it just north of hispanola for most part

[Aric Dunn]

very interesting to see the continued -80 degree clouds tops maintaining and expanding... does not happen to much with such a weak circ... could be organizing quite rapidly now..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[wxman57]

Just how close to PR is this going to get? Im starting to get nervous.

very close and the north side will be the worst.

The NHC track is a good 100 miles south of PR, which would keep the island just outside of tropical storm force winds. Of course, that doesn't mean the track couldn't shift a bit north and put the island into 34-50 mph winds. Or the center could reform farther north and put PR at risk for TS winds.

[Tampa_God]

If so, a hurricane watch should be issued for Puerto Rico maybe? I would guess hurricane watches for parts of Hispanola aren't far off

If it was up to me, I would post hurricane watches now for Puerto Rico.

[gatorcane]

Just released from NWS Miami:

000
FXUS62 KMFL 202332
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
732 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

.UPDATE...
JUST-FORMED TROPICAL STORM IRENE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
FORECAST BY NHC TO APPROACH THE VICINITY OF CUBA, SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DUE TO ITS
FORECAST PROXIMITY TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE NHC
FORECAST, WIND SPEED PROBABILITY DATA FROM NHC WILL BE EVALUATED
AND PROCESSED THIS EVENING FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF TROPICAL
CONDITION TERMINOLOGY IN ZONE AND MARINE FORECASTS. /MOLLEDA

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Aric Dunn]

Just how close to PR is this going to get? Im starting to get nervous.

very close and the north side will be the worst.

The NHC track is a good 100 miles south of PR, which would keep the island just outside of tropical storm force winds. Of course, that doesn't mean the track couldn't shift a bit north and put the island into 34-50 mph winds.

That and the wind field is highly likely to expand ... so that 100 miles is well within the realm of TS force winds and regardless some of those squalls could easily produce gust above 40

[northtxboy]

Sometimes you just have to look at the bigger picture...lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Irene is a big ole girl!!! I like em big..

Seeing how you are so far inland that you would NEVER experience the affects of a hurricane FIRST HAND, I guess you would...but for those of us who live on the coast, this isn't A JOKE to us, so I will kindly ask you to think about WHAT YOU POST BEFORE YOU POST IT! A major hurricane IS NEVER SOMETHING TO TAKE LIGHTLY!! So instead of making jokes, why don't you think about the 1000's of people this storm will affect?!?!?!

Been threw 2 storms,,Katrina and Ike and I do debri removal after hurricanes so I know what they can do!! Can I not get excited over a storm!! Isnt that what we are all here for?? Dont we all love and have a passion for weather? Mother nature is going to do what she wants and none of us can stop it. If you dont like what I have to say then dont read it and keep ur comments to urself. I think hurricanes are beautiful storms and If it wasnt for poeple who get excited and have passion for storms we would have noone to warn us of them..

[Steve H.]

Where the current center location is, not out of the realm of possibilities that it stays north of Hispaniola.

[KWT]

Kindaof looks like it is heading straight towards Puerto Rico doesn't it. If the center reforms further north, it is going to change things for the short-term (Puerto Rico impacts) and the long-term....I really hope she does not decided to track north of Hispaniola for Bahamas/Florida's sake. Though that would be good for Hispaniola. Thankfully no models show this solution, but you have to wonder, are they too conservative now on their initial intensity?

Probably not much difference to the 18z GFS because it forms the low around 16N anyway so any northwards reforcusing will just make it back inline with the GFS.

[rockyman]

The NHC has a great track record inside of 3 days...according to their forecast, the chances of Irene passing south of Hispaniola are much greater than the chances of it passing to the north.

[ozonepete]

very interesting to see the continued -80 degree clouds tops maintaining and expanding... does not happen to much with such a weak circ... could be organizing quite rapidly now..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

It's very rapid. And I don't see anything stopping it for now.

[RL3AO]

Don't forget to look at the cone. Although there is good model consensus, it wouldn't take much to miss Haiti.