ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

ridging still building westward with it.. no turn tonight.. most likely not tomorrow eithe r

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[cycloneye]

11 PM discussion came out very late after the public advisory was out.

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MARIA HAS STABILIZED THIS EVENING...ALBEIT IN A
RATHER DISORGANIZED CONDITION. PATCHES OF CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
ROTATION...WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...THE
AIRCRAFT THAT INVESTIGATED MARIA WAS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT A FULL DATA
SET. THEREFORE...IT WAS NOT DETERMINED WITH CERTAINTY WHETHER A
WELL-DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTED. HOWEVER...THE PLANE
MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB...SHOWING THAT AT THE VERY
LEAST A LOW PRESSURE CENTER STILL EXISTED. BASED ON THIS...MARIA
IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KT IS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND RECENT BUOY REPORTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/18. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE
CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH...A WEAKNESS POSSIBLY CAUSED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 23N61W. WHILE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...THE CURRENT RAPID MOTION SUGGESTS THIS TURN
WILL BE MORE GRADUAL THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING...AND
THUS THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW TRACK IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AFTER 24 HOURS...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS
MARIA TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER SHIFTING TO THE LEFT
FOR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE GUIDANCE FOR THE POST-24 HOUR
PERIOD HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE END OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL SHOW A SMALL RIGHT TURN...BUT STILL LIES TO THE
LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STILL TO THE WEST OF THE NEW
FORECAST AT 120 HOURS.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BECOME A BIT MORE BULLISH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS NO LONGER FORECASTING
MARIA TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION. INDEED...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAINING THAT LIGHT THROUGH 96 HOURS. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE FORECAST
UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERNS OF THE VARIOUS MODELS...THAT MIGHT BE A
BIT OPTIMISTIC. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR MARIA TO
MAINTAIN A 35-KT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE LOWER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST GUIDANCE.

THE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS REQUIRES
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 13.3N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 13.5N 57.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 14.7N 60.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 16.3N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 17.8N 65.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 21.0N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 23.5N 73.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 26.0N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[N2FSU]

[quote="Aric Dunn"]ridging still building westward with it.. no turn tonight.. most likely not tomorrow eithe r

I guess this would be close to putting Florida in play, since the NHC track calls for the gradual turn to start tomorrow.

[tgenius]

I just feel this will recurve once it gets into the Bahamas.. the ridge is supposed to break down a bit right to allow the northward component?

[cycloneye]

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.4N, 66.0W or about 3.0 miles (4.8 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 2 days, 4 hours and 17 minutes from now (Sunday, September 11 at 3:42AM AST).

[Adoquín]

Second landfall on 2011 season in Puerto Rico.

http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/811/030716w5nlsm.gif

No longer forecast to weaken but actually to be an moderately intensifying storm as it approaches us. 45 knots to 55 knots, coming in almost exactly where Irene it and where it did the most damage. Now, I just saw the 0z intensity models, which suggest several different outcomes at 48 hours, several over 45 one close to Cat 1. Now it could be much less and the other models suggesting closer to 45 be right. We shall see...Irene, I mean Maria.

[SFLcane]

I'd call this pretty good consensus...more than likely will recurve.

[cycloneye]

No longer forecast to weaken but actually to be an moderately intensifying storm as it approaches us. 45 knots to 55 knots, coming in almost exactly where Irene it and where it did the most damage. Now, I just saw the 0z intensity models, which suggest several different outcomes at 48 to 60 hours, a couple well over 45 over , one close to if not Cat 1. Now it could be much less and the other models suggesting closer to 45 be right. We shall see...Irene, I mean Maria.

Deja vu of another landfall like Irene it looks like at this time. Still things can change on the track as we know,but the intensity is the enigma for Maria. Can you imagine another power blackout of days like Irene?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

No longer forecast to weaken but actually to be an moderately intensifying storm as it approaches us. 45 knots to 55 knots, coming in almost exactly where Irene it and where it did the most damage. Now, I just saw the 0z intensity models, which suggest several different outcomes at 48 to 60 hours, a couple well over 45 over , one close to if not Cat 1. Now it could be much less and the other models suggesting closer to 45 be right. We shall see...Irene, I mean Maria.

Deja vu of another landfall like Irene it looks like at this time. Still things can change on the track as we know,but the intensity is the enigma for Maria. Can you imagine another power blackout of days like Irene?

Here we go again...

[SouthDadeFish]

That is missing two good models in the UKMET and Euro

[Adoquín]

check my edited message. GDFL actually shows the possible Cat 1 AT 48 hours from 8 pm tonight (0Z). The plot thickens, no pun intended.

[Adoquín]

any slow down in forward speed beyond what is forecast when she enters the Eastern Caribbean will be critical.

[SFLcane]

:uarrow:

That is missing two good models in the UKMET and Euro

Euro recurves...UKMET is in la la land this season.

[WeatherOrKnot]

GFS is running....

[cycloneye]

any slow down in forward speed beyond what is forecast when she enters the Eastern Caribbean will be critical.

Is forecast to start the slowdown on Friday.

[Adoquín]

Luis look at those pinks in the water temps from Barbados to Aguadilla...

[SouthDadeFish]

:uarrow:

That is missing two good models in the UKMET and Euro

Euro recurves...UKMET is in la la land this season.

From the discussion:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STILL TO THE WEST OF THE NEW
FORECAST AT 120 HOURS.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm not saying Maria won't recurve, but my problem with the GFS is that it is unrealistically bringing the cyclone too far north too quickly. For example on the 00Z run coming out now, it has Maria out of the cone through 39 hours already.

[Evil Jeremy]

:uarrow:

That is missing two good models in the UKMET and Euro

Euro recurves...UKMET is in la la land this season.

Euro recurves, but much closer to FL, and UKMET is still one of the top models in accuracy according to that report Ivanhater posted a couple weeks ago.

[boca]

Florida will escape Maria, its the pattern again very lucky. We might not be so lucky in Oct when systems form in the NW Caribbean and head north towards Florida. Be safe PR from Maria.