ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[KWT]

very interesting to see the continued -80 degree clouds tops maintaining and expanding... does not happen to much with such a weak circ... could be organizing quite rapidly now..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

My gut would be the LLC will get pulled NNW/NW in the next 6-12hrs. Probably is more likely to slide south of Hispaniola than north...but many times greater is the chance that it hits it instead.

[expat2carib]

This meaning Sint Maarten (north of the center) is getting it on it's nose?

Just how close to PR is this going to get? Im starting to get nervous.

very close and the north side will be the worst.

The NHC track is a good 100 miles south of PR, which would keep the island just outside of tropical storm force winds. Of course, that doesn't mean the track couldn't shift a bit north and put the island into 34-50 mph winds. Or the center could reform farther north and put PR at risk for TS winds.

[rockyman]

Looking at the 3 day cone, a Hispaniola hit is 50/50...maybe 60/40 (in favor of a hit)

[tolakram]

For what it's worth here's a closeup of the track and the Islands using GE.



Please keep in mind this excludes the cone of uncertainty.

[CrazyC83]

A Hispaniola miss = probably a monster hurricane

[SouthDadeFish]

Latest IR:



Looks like spiral bands starting to form on the SE side of the convective mass.

[Tampa_God]

The NHC has a great track record inside of 3 days...according to their forecast, the chances of Irene passing south of Hispaniola are much greater than the chances of it passing to the north.

I'm sticking with south of Hispaniola still. I still think it is moving W to a light WNW and I think some may be confusing the blow up convention to the east of where I believe the center is of a more NW direction.

[northtxboy]

A Hispaniola miss = probably a monster hurricane

I agree!! I think it will be the only thing to slow her down..

[jinftl]

This looks potentially very bad for Haiti....nuff said. There have been tropical depressions that have been catastrophic for the beleagured nation. Our thoughts and prayers must include these folks.

[CrazyC83]

This looks potentially very bad for Haiti....nuff said. There have been tropical depressions that have been catastrophic for the beleagured nation. Our thoughts and prayers must include these folks.

Yes, this is a no-win situation here.

Hit of Hispaniola: Potentially catastrophic flooding for Haiti, with a large loss of life possible

Miss of Hispaniola: Likely to develop into a significant, possibly massive, hurricane

[msbee]

radar from Guadeloupe

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[Adoquín]

watch out PR.. the N side is large wet and could be stronger than models are forecasting.

Aric I think Puerto Rico's liikelihood of a real close call went up a hell of a lot percent. I have been on this island for 48 years, and honestly, NHC tends to underestimate in my humble view the potential of storms. close to the Eastern Caribbean. This thing just tranitioned into hotter water at 55 w which will get hotter west and wnw, it is moving wnw all day anf I recall (sends chills up my spine) an early model set perhaps the first or second that showed a Hugo size blob exiting Guadeloupe. It has been and resilient a low in adverse times. Party time is just beginning. As ocurred with Marilyn, Hortense, I am afraid "kaboom" may happen much earlier than forecast. snd if it slows dowm...Based on what you are seeing, do you see it could continue to surprise?

[tolakram]

Ado,

don't forget to place your location in your profile so it shows up under your name. Helps to know where people are.

[Aric Dunn]

watch out PR.. the N side is large wet and could be stronger than models are forecasting.

Aric I think Puerto Rico's liikelihood of a real close call went up a hell of a lot percent. I have been on this island for 48 years, and honestly, NHC tends to underestimate in my humble view the potential of storms. close to the Eastern Caribbean. This thing just tranitioned into hotter water at 55 w which will get hotter west and wnw, it is moving wnw all day anf I recall (sends chills up my spine) an early model set perhaps the first or second that showed a Hugo size blob exiting Guadeloupe. It has been and resilient a low in adverse times. Party time is just beginning. As ocurred with Marilyn, Hortense, I am afraid "kaboom" may happen much earlier than forecast. snd if it slows dowm...Based on what you are seeing, do you see it could continue to surprise?

I would say no more than a minimal hurricane as it passes PR all likely hood its looking like it will be closer to PR than NHC track has now.

[Gustywind]

Hey folks, Martinica is right now in orange alert. For info this morning, Meteo-France Martinica have reported gusts reaching 80 km/H.

[Adoquín]

REally nice deep convection to the north of the circulation, its hard to imagine the center won't try to tuck into that deeper convection some point in the next 12hrs and strengthen from there...

The fact its blew up like that just after Dmin is abit of a worry as well...

Exactly my concern as that places us in Puerto Rico in more risk track and i tensification wise

[jinftl]

That would shift the whole forecast cone to the right some, no?

watch out PR.. the N side is large wet and could be stronger than models are forecasting.

Aric I think Puerto Rico's liikelihood of a real close call went up a hell of a lot percent. I have been on this island for 48 years, and honestly, NHC tends to underestimate in my humble view the potential of storms. close to the Eastern Caribbean. This thing just tranitioned into hotter water at 55 w which will get hotter west and wnw, it is moving wnw all day anf I recall (sends chills up my spine) an early model set perhaps the first or second that showed a Hugo size blob exiting Guadeloupe. It has been and resilient a low in adverse times. Party time is just beginning. As ocurred with Marilyn, Hortense, I am afraid "kaboom" may happen much earlier than forecast. snd if it slows dowm...Based on what you are seeing, do you see it could continue to surprise?

I would say no more than a minimal hurricane as it passes PR all likely hood its looking like it will be closer to PR than NHC track has now.

[wxman57]

Note that the GFDL is now taking it west to western Cuba as a Cat 5 in 5 days. That means it's in the camp of the Canadian, UKMET and ECMWF ensembles vs. the Florida peninsula threat.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

if i caught wxman57 correctly, the hebert box does not predict whether the storm will hit Fl, its only looking back, you see the correlation?

Close. Nothing in the tropics is a "prediction" so to say - that is if storm "A" does "B" than "C" will occur. Just as the idea that an area is "overdue" for a hit is folly. While certain areas have a higher propensity to being hit (such as south FL), nothing is to prevent a long run of no action, and after that long run (such as the 70's through the 80's) each storm has no higher likelihood of hitting a particular place, solely because it hasn't been hit in a while. So looking back, a majority of the major hurricanes which have visited S. Florida have gone through these boxes first. The Big Blow, Okeechobee, Treasure Coast, 1935-4, King, Donna, Betsy, Wilma. Andrew skimmed it, but 1935 Labor day did not go through it. Irene 99 did not. It's one of those almost obvious things though. Nearly all hurricanes that form fairly far north will miss the box, and likely recurve to sea and go fishing. Those going further south are likely to miss troughs until later and end up in CA/Mex/GOM.

[AdamFirst]

Note that the GFDL is now taking it west to western Cuba as a Cat 5 in 5 days. That means it's in the camp of the Canadian, UKMET and ECMWF ensembles vs. the Florida peninsula threat.

For the past week it didn't even develop Irene and now it wants to CAT 5 it.

I'm waiting for 00z suites...