ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[artist]

Hey folks, Martinica is right now in orange alert. For info this morning, Meteo-France Martinica have reported gusts reaching 80 km/H.

thanks for the update Gusty! Did you see the thread for our friends in the Caribbean? Hope you can post there when have any news. Thinking of you all!

[KWT]

Note that the GFDL is now taking it west to western Cuba as a Cat 5 in 5 days. That means it's in the camp of the Canadian, UKMET and ECMWF ensembles vs. the Florida peninsula threat.

Interesting balance, the weight of the models goes with the GFS/ECM, when they agree its rare for them to both be wrong...however the ensembles from both the GFS/ECM ensembles readress that balance quite alot.

Gonna keep us talking.

first gotta observe the effect it has on the LA.

[Gustywind]

TS Irene approaching very closely the Leewards

[Ivanhater]

Note that the GFDL is now taking it west to western Cuba as a Cat 5 in 5 days. That means it's in the camp of the Canadian, UKMET and ECMWF ensembles vs. the Florida peninsula threat.

If you notice the GFS has been trending further left after a south Florida hit as well with a faster trough and faster building ridge...interesting,

[tolakram]

Live loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Amazing how it's pumping so much moisture around it.

[Brent]

This thing has been a TS for 2 hours and already looks on the fast track to hurricane.

[KWT]

Congratulations!

Yeah there is going to be alot of recon at least in the next 36hrs, after that sorta depends on land interaction but should be a fair amount of recon one way or the other.

[KWT]

Amazing to see that moisture advect westwards and clear out all the dry air that has been in the path, not hard to see why the models were so gung ho on development now.

[Gustywind]

Hey folks, Martinica is right now in orange alert. For info this morning, Meteo-France Martinica have reported gusts reaching 80 km/H.

thanks for the update Gusty! Did you see the thread for our friends in the Caribbean? Hope you can post there when have any news. Thinking of you all!

Thanks my friend no i did not see it i will post sooner. Yeah i hope that i can post.

[bella_may]

Everyone from se Louisiana to se Florida needs to keep an eye on this

[KWT]

Yeah indeed bella_may and pretty much everyone in the Caribbean needs to keep an eye on it, I'm sure authorities in Haiti and Cuba are probably making early preperations.

[Gustywind]

This thing is becoming impressive hour by hour. Hey HUC we continue to keep a close eye on this healthy lady, looks like she's improving it appearence and it size as its ouflow in all quadrants.

[crimi481]

Thats not a second "low" - is it? (to the S.W. of main center?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

[Gustywind]

Close up

[jinftl]

keep in mind, Irene could pull a Debby, 11 years later if she spends too much time over land...Debby was supposed to be a major south fla threat..until she fizzled...just sayin'....we need to see all the range of possibilities.

Storms with the forecast track of Irene have ranged from monster storms down the road to shredded-apart dissipating systems. Alot will depend on time over (or not over) Hispanola.

[Aric Dunn]

looking at the long loop its does appear to be reforming farther north .... near 16N

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?116

[wxman57]

Note that the GFDL is now taking it west to western Cuba as a Cat 5 in 5 days. That means it's in the camp of the Canadian, UKMET and ECMWF ensembles vs. the Florida peninsula threat.

For the past week it didn't even develop Irene and now it wants to CAT 5 it.

I'm waiting for 00z suites...

There is a very good reason that the GFDL dropped 97L after 0 or 6 hours for the past few days. The GFDL was upgraded in 2011 with a new convective scheme. This should significantly improve track forecasts. However, the downside is that it is now VERY sluggish in initiating convection compared to the pre-2011 model. Prior to the recent run, the model saw a less-than-ideal environment ahead of 97L which caused the disturbance to struggle. This caused the program to shut down immediately rather than carry the disturbance PAST the unfavorable environment where it would likely develop. Now that the environment ahead of Irene is more favorable for development, the GFDL run can complete through 126 hours.

And THAT's why the GFDL lost 97L the past few days.

[clfenwi]

00Z best track

AL, 09, 2011082100, , BEST, 0, 150N, 590W, 45, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 45, 1010, 175, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRENE

SAB's estimate was a bit to the northeast... 15.3N 58.8W.

[KWT]

looking at the long loop its does appear to be reforming farther north .... near 16N

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?116

To be fair that could well just be the MLC getting going in a big way again from that range. Still it'd make sense for the center to scoop up somewhat.

Best track is right on the SW side of the convection, hard to relaly know without Vis imagery where exactly it is.

[brunota2003]

So...any time now that the GFDL sees an unfavorable environment, it'll just "shut down", even when the system could become a hurricane just 24 or 36 hours down the road once it enters more favorable conditions? How is that helpful?