Latest from JTWC(Interesting to note that there are 2 possible LLCCs)
WTPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 127.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 127.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.2N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.9N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.9N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.0N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.9N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 30.4N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 35.7N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 127.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY
BROAD SYSTEM THAT SPANS ALMOST THE ENTIRE PHILIPPINE SEA. DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND TWO POSSIBLE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC). THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
MORE DOMINANT LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH. THE
SECONDARY LLCC IS TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE EAST IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 220454Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWING A DISTINCT NOTCH OVER THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND FROM
A 220138Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35-KNOT WIND BARBS AROUND THE LLCC. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. IT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORHTWESTWARD UP TO TAU 48 BEFORE CROSSING TAIWAN
THEN MOVE ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT
TYPHOON INTENSITY BEFORE TAIWAN. IT WILL THEN CROSS THE EASTERN TIP
OF CHINA AND EXIT INTO THE YELLOW SEA NEAR SHANGHAI AND COMMENCE
DISSIPATION OVER WATER. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FAN OUT TO
ABOUT A 30-DEGREE SPREAD WITH ECMWF TO THE LEFT OF AND NOGAPS AND
GFDN TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS TO
THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE RIGHT OUTLIERS' UNLIKELY
INCURSION INTO THE STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z
AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (HAIMA) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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