ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[GCANE]

LLC has improved since this morning.

I've been trying to find out how that product is produced. It always looks suspiciously idealized to me. Can you point me to any documentation of the basis for it?

As far as I know it is a blend of 5 satellite products that are run thru an algorithm to create a LLC representation at 700mb.

AMSU LL IR, SCAT, etc

Some mets argue that not enough weight is applied for SCAT.

They prefer to look entirely at the surface.

To me, I like it since it gives a good representation of the evolution of a wave which is well defined at the 700mb level.

Anyway, here are some links.

For a detailed description look under:
Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis
at this link:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... p#MPSATWND

Here is the web page showing the analyzed product along with the satellite components.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1108111800

[ROCK]

Ivan, the ECMWF keeps it on a west track because it keeps it weak.

Not at all...this is the strongest run yet from the Euro and also the furthest south and west. Take a look at the 00z run, showed a weak refelection and still turned it well north and east.

agree....looks like a strait runner to me on that run.....the BAMM gave it away yesterday with a west then SW dip in track. You see that now with the latest GFDL/ HWRF and now the EURO. The High is really going to build in over this sucker....GOM bound IMO.....


HEY I AM at 5K posts!!

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, the ECMWF keeps it on a west track because it keeps it weak.

Not at all...this is the strongest run yet from the Euro and also the furthest south and west. Take a look at the 00z run, showed a weak refelection and still turned it well north and east.

agree....looks like a strait runner to me on that run.....the BAMM gave it away yesterday with a west then SW dip in track. You see that now with the latest GFDL/ HWRF and now the EURO. The High is really going to build in over this sucker....GOM bound IMO.....


HEY I AM at 5K posts!!

Yeah..this run of the Euro is the strongest run so far and given the upper air pattern at 240 hours would continue into the Gulf. Those of you who like to use the Euro for trends need to factor this run into your calculations...

[ROCK]

even at 240hr you cannot discount the EURO....now the GFS is garbage at 240hr....if I was a Floridian or NGOMER I would take notice...

[Blown Away]

even at 240hr you cannot discount the EURO....now the GFS is garbage at 240hr....if I was a Floridian or NGOMER I would take notice...

I know when I see ROCK posting on E Atlantic model runs the EURO has shifted west and I need to take notice.

[Macrocane]

Interesting how most of the global models (forget about the NOGAPS and CMC) are now in agreement about a more west track, it's kind of impressive how similar the tracks of the Euro, GFS and FIM are, aren't they?

[SouthDadeFish]

Props to the FIM as it seemed to the lead the more southern trend with 93L.

[Blown Away]

TVCN says NE Caribbean, let's hope this doesn't develop into a hurricane.

[Ivanhater]

Props to the FIM as it seemed to the lead the more southern trend with 93L.

I noticed that as well....maybe we need to include the FIM into the late night model watch...what do you think Rock?

[Nimbus]

The models are settling down on a track towards the northeastern Caribbean. You can usually discount the early runs that don't have a properly initialized storm and always seem to predict a shortcut to Bermuda.

Looks like 93l has a pretty good circulation so unless it does the mid Atlantic poof thing the tracks shouldn't swing much further west.

[SouthDadeFish]

Props to the FIM as it seemed to the lead the more southern trend with 93L.

I noticed that as well....maybe we need to include the FIM into the late night model watch...what do you think Rock?

I think its definitely worthy of consideration. (But I'm not Rock )

Also notice how tightly packed the GFS ensemble members are, indicative of a high confidence forecast.

[x-y-no]

...

Anyway, here are some links.

For a detailed description look under:
Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis
at this link:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... p#MPSATWND

Here is the web page showing the analyzed product along with the satellite components.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1108111800

Thanks. Just exactly what I needed.

[cycloneye]

Yikes! I was celebrating my birthday away from PC almost all day and now find out that ECMWF is really on board. When it speaks you pay attention.

[Blown Away]

Now for all you Euro huggers, let me highlight today's 12z run...it is the farthest south and west model so far with 93L. It does develop it into a strong system heading west to wnw skirting the Islands heading toward the Florida straits



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Would someone please post the link to this model run and the FIM if you have it? Thanks...

[Stormcenter]

If 93L would somehow make it into the GOM (still don't think so) it would more then likely be steered right into Mexico or lower TX. IMO

[Kory]

Boy, the Euro really got everyone fired up this evening. I'd like to see if it continues showing this solution, but knowing the model madness of it swinging back and forth, it could very well end up along the East Coast in tonights run.

[Macrocane]

Here's the link to the FIM: http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim&domain=244&run_time=11+Aug+2011+-+12Z

Sometimes they run it with different initial conditions an you will have to choose another plot in the left side under the "FIM Plots" option.

[Stormcenter]

Why would you like it to continue showing this solution?

Boy, the Euro really got everyone fired up this evening. I'd like to see if it continues showing this solution, but knowing the model madness of it swinging back and forth, it could very well end up along the East Coast in tonights run.

[Kory]

If 93L would somehow make it into the GOM (still don't think so) it would more then likely be steered right into Mexico or lower TX. IMO

Well on that run of the Euro, it shows an absence of the death ridge across Texas. Anytime a system gets in the Gulf, I learn to never exclude anyone from its threat.

[Macrocane]

Why would you like it to continue showing this solution?

Kory said would like to see if it continues to show the solution, maybe becauso of consistency issues