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sunnyday wrote:Just visited the models page(s), and the folks there said that most models are dropping this.
A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua and Honduras, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show that 96L has changed little in organization since yesterday. Some rotation is apparent, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited due to a large region of dry air to the east, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. There are no signs of a surface circulation. Surface pressures have been falling since Thursday at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.
Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.
I think 97L the one to watch.Sanibel wrote:I think it still has potential as long as it doesn't drift over Central America. Part of the reason it isn't getting going is low latitude and lack of coriolis.
Sanibel wrote:I think it still has potential as long as it doesn't drift over Central America. Part of the reason it isn't getting going is low latitude and lack of coriolis.
but Ivan was a well developed system by then.psyclone wrote:Sanibel wrote:I think it still has potential as long as it doesn't drift over Central America. Part of the reason it isn't getting going is low latitude and lack of coriolis.
there's not a lack of coriolis at that latitude. hurricane ivan hit grenada as a major at a slightly lower latitude than this disturbance presently resides.
Rainband wrote:good news. models are not as aggressive and this may stay down in the Caribbean.
Rainband wrote:psyclone wrote: there's not a lack of coriolis at that latitude. hurricane ivan hit grenada as a major at a slightly lower latitude than this disturbance presently resides.
but Ivan was a well developed system by then.
Strange year 
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