ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

looking at the long loop its does appear to be reforming farther north .... near 16N

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?116

That's what I see. It has a really large circulation with a large area without convection in it between the band that went west of the islands and the circular area east of the islands. Physically all of that has to get resolved.

[msbee]

Hey folks, Martinica is right now in orange alert. For info this morning, Meteo-France Martinica have reported gusts reaching 80 km/H.

thanks for the update Gusty! Did you see the thread for our friends in the Caribbean? Hope you can post there when have any news. Thinking of you all!

Thanks my friend no i did not see it i will post sooner. Yeah i hope that i can post.

I hope you can post too my friend. I hope i can post..
heavy squalls here now.
stay dry, Gusty

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 09, 2011082100, , BEST, 0, 150N, 590W, 45, 1006, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[KWT]

Looks like they are sticking with the LLC that was previously found.

what is the motion between 18z and 00z best track positions?

[TheDreamTraveler]

looking at the long loop its does appear to be reforming farther north .... near 16N

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?116

I thought I was the only one noticing that lol

[cycloneye]

Looks like they are sticking with the LLC that was previously found.

what is the motion between 18z and 00z best track positions?

Code: Select all

LATCUR =  15.0N LONCUR =  59.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  19KT
LATM12 =  14.3N LONM12 =  54.9W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 =  21KT
LATM24 =  14.0N LONM24 =  51.2W
WNDCUR =   45KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   40KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =  105NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  45NM


[MWatkins]

So...any time now that the GFDL sees an unfavorable environment, it'll just "shut down", even when the system could become a hurricane just 24 or 36 hours down the road once it enters more favorable conditions? How is that helpful?

I think his point was there is less convective feedback driving the early development cycle of the model, so if the model senses a weak system in an unfavorable environment, it can't get the circulation spun up...having a non-development bias.

Now that the environment has changed, and now that the system is less fragile, the model is holding on to it through 126 hours.

Similar adjustments were made to the GFS a few years ago and it had trouble keeping track of a Cat 5 Bertha...

Good info there.

MW

[Aric Dunn]

looking at the long loop its does appear to be reforming farther north .... near 16N

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?116

I thought I was the only one noticing that lol

its also getting awfully close to the radar site.. to be all mid level .. will see though hard to tell with the low quality. but looking that way right now.

[Nimbus]

That "new" center up near 16N is moving more west than WNW so it won't be that far off by morning. They might do a relocation at 11PM if they get enough evidence. A relo might put Puerto Rico uncomfortably close to the core circulation though.

[Gustywind]

20/2345 UTC 15.3N 58.8W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic

[jinftl]

center NW of 2300Z position...motion or reforming of center?


14.9N 58.5W AT 20/2300Z

20/2345 UTC 15.3N 58.8W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic

[Aric Dunn]

center NW of 2300Z position...motion or reforming of center?


14.9N 58.5W AT 20/2300Z

20/2345 UTC 15.3N 58.8W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic

pulled/reforming....

[northjaxpro]

Yep Aric it is reforming just a bit north of the previous position at 23Z.

[jinftl]

Hitting 12-hour forecast latitude well east of the longitude (approx 140 miles or so?)....this could push track at 11pm north in the near term some

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.4N 61.1W

center NW of 2300Z position...motion or reforming of center?


14.9N 58.5W AT 20/2300Z

20/2345 UTC 15.3N 58.8W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic

pulled/reforming....

[Vortex]

TS Irene approaching very closely the Leewards

She's going to be large and a beauty from a scientific standpoint.

[rockyman]

SSD T-number positions don't always correspond to NHC positions.

[HeeBGBz]

From what I see on the map, it looks like Irene is north enough for it to skirt over the top of the islands. Just from a random observer viewpoint.

[Aric Dunn]

From latest radar and satellite... best estimate is within the circle. as well as from Guadalupe the winds have been anywhere from NNW to NNE indicating the LLC more east south east of that islands.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFR.html

[deltadog03]

agreed Aric.....the LLC looks to be there.

[Hylian Auree]

looking at the long loop its does appear to be reforming farther north .... near 16N

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?116

I thought I was the only one noticing that lol

its also getting awfully close to the radar site.. to be all mid level .. will see though hard to tell with the low quality. but looking that way right now.

I've also been noticing this for a while now. It's somewhat evident as an eddy-esque circulation on the last visibile frame before nighttime, but radar imagery supports a tightening of it.