ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Im not seasoned this year though. There has been no action to warrant me staying up this late. Irene got me a couple of times, but that is it.

[Nikki]

I just keep pacing myself...NOAA; USAF; Archives (in case something slips through), recco's..in case theres comm problems...rinse & repeat...still waiting.

I don't know how you do it! I can't even begin to know how to read/decipher RECON! (p.s. yes this is Nicole from Storm2k FB page)

[Dave]

I just keep pacing myself...NOAA; USAF; Archives (in case something slips through), recco's..in case theres comm problems...rinse & repeat...still waiting.

I don't know how you do it! I can't even begin to know how to read/decipher RECON! (p.s. yes this is Nicole from Storm2k FB page)

Hi Nicole how are ya! Still waiting...I'm going to reboot this machine soon just to clear the caches!

[theweatherwatch]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291405
AF306 WXWXA 110829132437306 HDOB 04 20110829
135530 3158N 08327W 3926 07688 0374 -190 //// 325013 014 /// /// 05
135600 3158N 08330W 3926 07689 0374 -190 //// 325012 013 /// /// 05
135630 3157N 08333W 3926 07688 0373 -190 //// 325013 014 /// /// 05
135700 3156N 08336W 3926 07691 0374 -190 //// 326013 014 /// /// 05
135730 3155N 08339W 3926 07688 0373 -190 //// 327015 015 /// /// 05
135800 3155N 08342W 3926 07687 0372 -190 //// 323014 014 /// /// 05
135830 3154N 08345W 3926 07689 0372 -190 //// 325013 014 /// /// 05
135900 3153N 08348W 3926 07688 0373 -190 //// 323013 014 /// /// 05
135930 3152N 08351W 3926 07687 0372 -190 //// 322013 013 /// /// 05
140000 3152N 08354W 3926 07689 0373 -190 //// 321012 013 /// /// 05
140030 3151N 08357W 3926 07687 0373 -190 //// 318013 013 /// /// 05
140100 3150N 08400W 3926 07690 0373 -190 //// 320012 013 /// /// 05
140130 3149N 08403W 3926 07688 0374 -190 //// 321013 014 /// /// 05
140200 3148N 08405W 3926 07692 0376 -190 //// 319014 015 /// /// 05
140230 3148N 08408W 3926 07693 0377 -190 //// 318013 013 /// /// 05
140300 3147N 08411W 3927 07692 0377 -190 //// 319013 014 /// /// 05
140330 3146N 08414W 3926 07692 0377 -190 //// 320013 013 /// /// 05
140400 3145N 08417W 3926 07689 0376 -190 //// 321012 013 /// /// 05
140430 3144N 08420W 3926 07688 0375 -190 //// 320013 014 /// /// 05
140500 3144N 08423W 3926 07689 0374 -190 //// 321013 014 /// /// 05
$$
;

[ROCK]

CMC out 18hrs...looks like it initialized with the suspect LLC to the SE.....

[South Texas Storms]

CMC out 18hrs...looks like it initialized with the suspect LLC to the SE.....

So it initialized it where we think the new LLC is?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291405
AF306 WXWXA 110829132437306 HDOB 04 20110829
135530 3158N 08327W 3926 07688 0374 -190 //// 325013 014 /// /// 05
135600 3158N 08330W 3926 07689 0374 -190 //// 325012 013 /// /// 05
135630 3157N 08333W 3926 07688 0373 -190 //// 325013 014 /// /// 05
135700 3156N 08336W 3926 07691 0374 -190 //// 326013 014 /// /// 05
135730 3155N 08339W 3926 07688 0373 -190 //// 327015 015 /// /// 05
135800 3155N 08342W 3926 07687 0372 -190 //// 323014 014 /// /// 05
135830 3154N 08345W 3926 07689 0372 -190 //// 325013 014 /// /// 05
135900 3153N 08348W 3926 07688 0373 -190 //// 323013 014 /// /// 05
135930 3152N 08351W 3926 07687 0372 -190 //// 322013 013 /// /// 05
140000 3152N 08354W 3926 07689 0373 -190 //// 321012 013 /// /// 05
140030 3151N 08357W 3926 07687 0373 -190 //// 318013 013 /// /// 05
140100 3150N 08400W 3926 07690 0373 -190 //// 320012 013 /// /// 05
140130 3149N 08403W 3926 07688 0374 -190 //// 321013 014 /// /// 05
140200 3148N 08405W 3926 07692 0376 -190 //// 319014 015 /// /// 05
140230 3148N 08408W 3926 07693 0377 -190 //// 318013 013 /// /// 05
140300 3147N 08411W 3927 07692 0377 -190 //// 319013 014 /// /// 05
140330 3146N 08414W 3926 07692 0377 -190 //// 320013 013 /// /// 05
140400 3145N 08417W 3926 07689 0376 -190 //// 321012 013 /// /// 05
140430 3144N 08420W 3926 07688 0375 -190 //// 320013 014 /// /// 05
140500 3144N 08423W 3926 07689 0374 -190 //// 321013 014 /// /// 05
$$
;

That's an old mission: 20110829

[CYCLONE MIKE]

While we are waiting here is my local NWS office forecast since i do not know how to post images

Overnight: Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 78. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Friday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 89. East wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to between 25 and 30 mph. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Friday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 77. East wind 30 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Saturday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 85. East wind 30 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 77. Windy, with a east wind around 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Sunday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 85. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Sunday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 78. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Labor Day: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 86. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy and windy, with a low around 77.

Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a high near 87.

Tuesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76.

Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88.

Wednesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75.

Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87.

[ROCK]

CMC out 18hrs...looks like it initialized with the suspect LLC to the SE.....

So it initialized it where we think the new LLC is?

yes,,I would post the image but the new rules got me all screwed up....

[ROCK]

CMC at 0hrs- looks good to me...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP000.gif

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Doesn't work ROCK. Try again. Don't feel bad i don't know how to post images either and been here for years.

[South Texas Storms]

Awesome looking 7 day. I'll trade ya 3 days of sunny and hot here for 3 days of your heavy rain.

[Nikki]

[quote="ROCK"]CMC at 0hrs- looks good to me...





Can't see this one, tells me it is disabled.

[MississippiWx]

CMC at 0hrs- looks good to me...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP000.gif

New CMC basically brings 13L on the same track as the GFS/NAM/Euro.

[BigB0882]

We can't see those images unless you host them first. Interesting they would initiate with the new (suspected) LLC. I hope Euro does the same but I wont hold my breath. Too bad the CMC is not high up on my list of reliable models, anyway.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

After a couple of says I would gladly do it. We have also had our fair share of hot and dry and drought. Hell if TD13 downgrades to a wave again a lot more people will not be getting the rains that are currently forecast.

[BigB0882]

My goodness, never seen so many days with tropical storm conditions possible, lol

We are supposed to go watch the game Saturday at the Varsity but I don't know if everyone should be out. I know for us down here that isn't the worst weather in the world but I say better safe than sorry.

[South Texas Storms]

We can't see those images unless you host them first. Interesting they would initiate with the new (suspected) LLC. I hope Euro does the same but I wont hold my breath. Too bad the CMC is not high up on my list of reliable models, anyway.

Actually Rock, I think that is yesterday's 0z run initialization. Check the date at the bottom.

[ROCK]

CMC at 0hrs- looks good to me...





Can't see this one, tells me it is disabled.

good because it was yesterdays run I posted.... my bad

[MississippiWx]

We can't see those images unless you host them first. Interesting they would initiate with the new (suspected) LLC. I hope Euro does the same but I wont hold my breath. Too bad the CMC is not high up on my list of reliable models, anyway.

Actually Rock, I think that is yesterday's 0z run initialization. Check the date at the bottom.

Look at the black and white charts below the colour charts. It's the new run.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html