ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CronkPSU]

what did the euro say last night/this AM?

[Gustywind]

I saw that, Gustywind, but I don't know if you noticed that it was not the governor talking, but his right arm... I think, same as Marilyn, that the governor has not arrived here yet..

Anyway, I expect Red Alert by 6PM just before the first gusts to be on the southern islands. IMO, timing should be the same as for a hurricane, but one step down.

You're right i noticied that , may be our governor does not seems to have a better handle on that and uses it rights arms. Let's wait and see how the things evolve.

[cpdaman]

boom! wow conv flare up.

[xironman]

Ended up with a weird hybrid storm in the OBX

[SootyTern]

Hard to tell exactly which direction she is going since she is such a blob right now. If she has lost a LLC, how will that affect the models? Also wondering about the ULL to her northwest; seems like those features tend to do what they want, not what they're forecast to do.

[Gustywind]

TS Maria

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 091118
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 13 20110909
110900 1231N 05841W 8433 01555 0081 +180 +107 272006 007 018 000 03
110930 1232N 05839W 8429 01560 0084 +179 +105 260006 006 017 001 00
111000 1232N 05838W 8428 01563 0084 +176 +106 268006 007 017 000 00
111030 1233N 05836W 8431 01557 0083 +176 +111 265007 007 016 000 00
111100 1233N 05834W 8429 01561 0085 +175 +112 260006 007 013 000 03
111130 1234N 05833W 8429 01561 0088 +170 +116 279005 006 021 004 00
111200 1235N 05831W 8429 01558 0082 +180 +109 308006 007 017 000 00
111230 1236N 05830W 8430 01559 0081 +182 +108 300005 006 016 000 00
111300 1237N 05829W 8429 01557 0081 +179 +112 271004 005 015 000 00
111330 1238N 05828W 8429 01561 0081 +180 +113 269005 006 015 000 00
111400 1240N 05826W 8433 01556 0080 +184 +112 265004 004 015 000 00
111430 1241N 05825W 8429 01561 0080 +185 +109 250003 003 013 000 00
111500 1242N 05824W 8429 01562 0079 +185 +112 245003 003 014 000 00
111530 1243N 05822W 8436 01555 0082 +185 +111 233004 005 014 000 00
111600 1244N 05821W 8426 01565 0082 +183 +112 247003 004 012 000 00
111630 1245N 05820W 8432 01559 0083 +181 +114 301002 003 013 000 00
111700 1246N 05818W 8432 01560 0085 +180 +113 302004 004 013 000 00
111730 1247N 05817W 8429 01564 0086 +177 +115 287006 006 014 000 00
111800 1248N 05816W 8431 01560 0082 +183 +111 261005 005 010 000 00
111830 1249N 05814W 8424 01568 0081 +184 +111 273005 005 011 000 03
$$

[CronkPSU]

forecast to go north of puerto rico? everytime I doubt the NHC they prove me wrong...but will have to start gaining some more northerly movement to verify

[rainstorm]

if its an open wave it will go south of PR

[cycloneye]

Plenty of wsw to west winds found so those who had some doubts about if it didn't had a close circulation,there it is.

[dwsqos2]

I have no idea if there exists a well-defined low-level circulation, but from staring at moring visible loops, it looks like low-level convergence is increasing at least.

FWIW, those winds were measured at 850 mb; I wish that the plane were flying at a slightly lower altitude.

[HurricaneWarning92]

doesnt look like its moving wnw to me. Still west or maybe just north of west...

[xironman]

The weakness is really not that impressive

[cycloneye]

Recon stopped sending obs

[xironman]

They have been having issues all year.

[edit]

Then they instantly reappear

[cycloneye]

Ok here is 14.

AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 14 20110909
111900 1250N 05813W 8428 01565 0081 +185 +111 262007 007 012 000 00
111930 1251N 05812W 8430 01559 0080 +186 +111 228006 007 013 000 00
112000 1252N 05810W 8430 01558 0076 +188 +109 228004 005 015 000 03
112030 1253N 05808W 8429 01557 0075 +186 +108 230006 007 011 000 03
112100 1254N 05807W 8437 01551 0075 +186 +105 254007 008 014 000 03
112130 1254N 05805W 8430 01556 0077 +187 +105 256009 009 014 001 00
112200 1255N 05804W 8428 01561 0082 +182 +109 250010 011 015 000 00
112230 1256N 05802W 8432 01558 0085 +179 +112 239007 008 016 000 00
112300 1257N 05801W 8429 01562 0086 +174 +112 234009 010 014 000 00
112330 1258N 05759W 8431 01560 0087 +174 +114 221011 011 013 000 00
112400 1259N 05758W 8429 01561 0088 +172 +116 220011 011 014 000 00
112430 1300N 05756W 8431 01558 0085 +177 +114 222012 013 014 000 00
112500 1301N 05755W 8429 01562 0084 +178 +113 231012 013 015 000 00
112530 1301N 05753W 8425 01565 0085 +175 +115 225011 012 011 000 03
112600 1302N 05752W 8428 01562 0085 +176 +115 212010 011 010 000 00
112630 1303N 05750W 8429 01564 0086 +175 +115 207010 010 009 000 03
112700 1304N 05749W 8433 01557 0085 +177 +114 204011 012 009 000 00
112730 1305N 05747W 8429 01565 0086 +175 +115 204013 014 010 000 00
112800 1306N 05746W 8429 01559 0085 +180 +113 192014 014 008 000 03
112830 1307N 05744W 8431 01556 0082 +178 +113 190013 014 007 000 00

[HurricaneWarning92]

Regardless of further development before the Lesser Antilles, they are in for some nasty thunderstorms.

[wxman57]

I got a few just as you posted, cycloneye. So far the plane has found about 3 weak swirls but no definitive center.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 091148
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 16 20110909
113900 1333N 05721W 8423 01563 0086 +173 +121 086009 009 019 000 00
113930 1334N 05720W 8421 01566 0081 +178 +123 100006 008 019 000 00
114000 1335N 05718W 8425 01562 0078 +183 +124 120004 006 022 001 00
114030 1336N 05717W 8426 01560 0078 +180 +130 049004 006 025 000 00
114100 1337N 05716W 8422 01564 0080 +177 +131 048005 006 022 001 00
114130 1339N 05714W 8422 01565 0080 +175 +131 083004 005 024 002 00
114200 1340N 05713W 8426 01559 0078 +176 +132 080003 004 022 001 00
114230 1341N 05712W 8425 01561 0077 +180 +130 033002 003 023 001 00
114300 1342N 05711W 8424 01561 0079 +176 +132 009002 004 024 002 00
114330 1343N 05709W 8424 01562 0075 +182 +131 323004 005 024 001 00
114400 1344N 05708W 8426 01560 0076 +180 +130 221000 003 027 005 00
114430 1345N 05707W 8423 01563 0075 +183 +129 256003 004 030 003 00
114500 1346N 05705W 8426 01560 0074 +185 +130 210004 005 030 005 00
114530 1347N 05704W 8426 01559 0074 +182 +130 192004 004 028 005 00
114600 1348N 05703W 8425 01561 0076 +179 +131 208004 004 025 003 00
114630 1349N 05701W 8424 01560 0078 +175 +134 201006 007 024 001 00
114700 1350N 05700W 8421 01562 0077 +175 +133 218006 006 023 002 00
114730 1351N 05659W 8426 01558 0075 +181 +122 210007 007 026 002 00
114800 1352N 05657W 8425 01557 0078 +176 +126 203008 010 026 003 00
114830 1354N 05656W 8421 01564 0076 +179 +121 201008 008 026 005 00
$$

[AJC3]

I know the NOGAPS is a rather mediocre model, but I would be remiss to ignore that its 06 run has shifted way west. Brings the trough out earlier and builds ridging south of it sending Maria right into South Florida at 144 hours.





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I think the case could be made that of the globals, 4 out of 5 (Euro, Nogaps, UKMET, CMC) see a possible threat to the east coast, while the GFS is the one global that does not. Note that not all the globals that see a threat to the east coast show landfall on the east coast. This does say that Maria's future as a recurve east of the US is not yet certain.

Color me as being remiss. We've consistently been ignoring the less reliable and sporadic outlier runs that have showed a closer approach the Florida in favor of the general consensus of more reliable and consistent model guidance that continues to turn Maria northward well east (about 5 degrees or 300 miles) of the state.

There's really no good reason not to, given the strength of the trough forecast by the models that handle the synoptic pattern much better.