ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[meriland23]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1211W5_NL_sm2+gif/083515W5_NL_sm.gif[/img]

you can also see in comparison to 11 pm, the PP has curved slightly to the WSW around 60W..

Is there a way to overlay these path charts to see which way the forecast has changed from one to the other?

That is a good question, I will see what I can do, I have a image back from aug 30 and that one so I can do a little layering here with photoshop.

CLick on the image for full size, not exactly a masterpiece, but it is correct. The coordinates appear wrong only cause 11 am on the 30th, the map was zoomed out and the grid was significantly smaller in size in comparrison to the 5am sep 1st update. But I assure you this is correct. I layered the two photos in correct position and drew on top of the 5 am layer where the track was and then deleted the 5 am layer leaving behind that outline. Reasoning behind that is cause it was very hard to make out which was which if I just layered the two and changed opacity. Also, orange circles indicate 5 am's H status and red circles indicate M status.

[stewart715]

CNC 0z model forecast

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MLoop.html

Wow, this is getting closer and closer to the CONUS northeast. This one puts Cape Cod under water.

[Gustywind]

Yesterday, that was from our daily newspaper...
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 136760.php

Weather: Katia under surveillance
France-Antilles Guadeloupe31.08.2011

A single weather event is underway, it is located in the Atlantic basin. The tropical depression on Monday has become since yesterday morning the storm tropical Katia. It is now in the Atlantic and moves West-North-West 30 km/h.

It continues to grow and its maximum winds reached 90 km/h with gusts of the order of 110 km/h. It should reach hurricane status Thursday to midday. Its expected, for now, path would pass to the northeast of the Caribbean arc this weekend.

Norbert Aouizerats, chief forecaster for weather France, believes that the phenomenon is too far to establish a specific trajectory. "It should not concern us directly, from 650 kilometres northwest of the Northern Islands." But indirect effects are not to be overlooked: swell, high winds, could relate to us. "The passage of the tropical storm, which would be class I or II would in the day Sunday, with first effects Saturday night, if there is."

[dwsqos2]

Katla looks relatively disorganized at the moment; methinks shear is already having a negative impact.

[stauglocal]

This looks like a good track for waves along the Florida coast, beginning of next week. The only problem may be is local winds due to the disturbance in the gulf.

[otowntiger]

It looks to me like we should be saying "See ya Katia!" am I wrong? Bermuda is another story I know, but as far as CONUS, Caribbean, and Bahama Islands it looks to me like we should good.

[caribepr]

Yesterday, that was from our daily newspaper...
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 136760.php

Weather: Katia under surveillance
France-Antilles Guadeloupe31.08.2011

A single weather event is underway, it is located in the Atlantic basin. The tropical depression on Monday has become since yesterday morning the storm tropical Katia. It is now in the Atlantic and moves West-North-West 30 km/h.

It continues to grow and its maximum winds reached 90 km/h with gusts of the order of 110 km/h. It should reach hurricane status Thursday to midday. Its expected, for now, path would pass to the northeast of the Caribbean arc this weekend.

Norbert Aouizerats, chief forecaster for weather France, believes that the phenomenon is too far to establish a specific trajectory. "It should not concern us directly, from 650 kilometres northwest of the Northern Islands." But indirect effects are not to be overlooked: swell, high winds, could relate to us. "The passage of the tropical storm, which would be class I or II would in the day Sunday, with first effects Saturday night, if there is."

What a straightforward and sensible article, Gusty! Hope Katia heads north sooner than later for all of us.

[stewart715]

It looks to me like we should be saying "See ya Katia!" am I wrong? Bermuda is another story I know, but as far as CONUS, Caribbean, and Bahama Islands it looks to me like we should good.

Unfortunately, I don't think we can say it yet. The models keep bringing her closer and closer to the CONUS East Coast. She WILL recurve, but the question is WHEN and WHERE. Her recurve could hit Bermuda, it could also hit Long Island, Cape Cod, even New Jersey/New York. A lot of this depends on what's going on in the Pacific and with Invest 93L, which is why models right now are pointless to look at, IMO. There's too much on the table to be questioned as to what could happen and too many things affecting each other.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[otowntiger]

It looks to me like we should be saying "See ya Katia!" am I wrong? Bermuda is another story I know, but as far as CONUS, Caribbean, and Bahama Islands it looks to me like we should good.

Unfortunately, I don't think we can say it yet. The models keep bringing her closer and closer to the CONUS East Coast. She WILL recurve, but the question is WHEN and WHERE. Her recurve could hit Bermuda, it could also hit Long Island, Cape Cod, even New Jersey/New York. A lot of this depends on what's going on in the Pacific and with Invest 93L, which is why models right now are pointless to look at, IMO. There's too much on the table to be questioned as to what could happen and too many things affecting each other.

'

Thank you for your thoughtful response. I see what you are saying about looking at models for answers 4,5+ days out. We've seen big changes in less time. So it makes sense to keep vigilant but I'm not going to lose sleep on it for sure.

[stewart715]

It looks to me like we should be saying "See ya Katia!" am I wrong? Bermuda is another story I know, but as far as CONUS, Caribbean, and Bahama Islands it looks to me like we should good.

Unfortunately, I don't think we can say it yet. The models keep bringing her closer and closer to the CONUS East Coast. She WILL recurve, but the question is WHEN and WHERE. Her recurve could hit Bermuda, it could also hit Long Island, Cape Cod, even New Jersey/New York. A lot of this depends on what's going on in the Pacific and with Invest 93L, which is why models right now are pointless to look at, IMO. There's too much on the table to be questioned as to what could happen and too many things affecting each other.

'

Thank you for your thoughtful response. I see what you are saying about looking at models for answers 4,5+ days out. We've seen big changes in less time. So it makes sense to keep vigilant but I'm not going to lose sleep on it for sure.

Definitely agree with that -- I think an east coast hit for US is probably like 10-15%, it will likely recurve and go away, but warrants watching. As for the GOM system building, that could bring a lot of unneeded rain to the east.

[tolakram]

Please be sure to post the forum disclaimer if making predictions. Simple copy/paste from the top of the page.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stewart715]

Please be sure to post the forum disclaimer if making predictions. Simple copy/paste from the top of the page.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My mistake, I've added.

[terrapintransit]

Here we go again today with some of the models beginning to bend back to the west like yesterday...GFS has been fairly consistent with the "recurve" though.

[cinlfla]

My link is no longer working. Can someone please post a link for the speghetti models.

TIA

[stewart715]

Here we go again today with some of the models beginning to bend back to the west like yesterday...GFS has been fairly consistent with the "recurve" though.

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/dat ... smodel.gif

I think it's spot on with the recurve, but I think it's becoming confused as to WHEN to recurve...which is the big ? for this...

If she recurves past W70 CONUS NE will need to brace.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[terrapintransit]

My link is no longer working. Can someone please post a link for the speghetti models.

TIA

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/dat ... smodel.gif

[Andy_L]

even if this misses Bermuda, seems a LOT of the models are going to slam this into Atlantic Canada taking away the "fish" possibility

[stewart715]

even if this misses Bermuda, seems a LOT of the models are going to slam this into Atlantic Canada taking away the "fish" possibility

Think the chances of this not making landfall somewhere are very slim. You have the following possibilities, while although most equally slim:

-Caribbean Islands
-CONUS Northeast (and even as far down as Florida)
-Cape Cod/Islands clipping
-Maine, NS, Atlantic Canada, etc.
-Bermuda

Her recurve depends greatly on what's pushed her way in the next 5 to 10 days, which depends greatly on the tropics going on out in the Pacific...

Looking at ensemble model AP07 gives me shivers -- places her over Outer Banks, Delaware, Central New Jersey and through Manhattan. There's a reason those western models exist -- it's because of possibility, which is likely VERY VERY VERY slim, but still questionable.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

Yesterday, that was from our daily newspaper...
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 136760.php

Weather: Katia under surveillance
France-Antilles Guadeloupe31.08.2011

A single weather event is underway, it is located in the Atlantic basin. The tropical depression on Monday has become since yesterday morning the storm tropical Katia. It is now in the Atlantic and moves West-North-West 30 km/h.

It continues to grow and its maximum winds reached 90 km/h with gusts of the order of 110 km/h. It should reach hurricane status Thursday to midday. Its expected, for now, path would pass to the northeast of the Caribbean arc this weekend.

Norbert Aouizerats, chief forecaster for weather France, believes that the phenomenon is too far to establish a specific trajectory. "It should not concern us directly, from 650 kilometres northwest of the Northern Islands." But indirect effects are not to be overlooked: swell, high winds, could relate to us. "The passage of the tropical storm, which would be class I or II would in the day Sunday, with first effects Saturday night, if there is."

What a straightforward and sensible article, Gusty! Hope Katia heads north sooner than later for all of us.

Thanks my friend from PR i hope it too, but let's wait and see as usual.

[Macrocane]

I think it's possible that the NHC will downgrade Katia to a tropical storm, half of the center is exposed, however I think it still can be a major hurricane down the looong road it has ahead.