ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthFloridawx]

only possible place a LLC would be at right now. looking at surface obs, satellite is about 13.5N 57.5W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

You think two lows?

[Dave]

971
URNT15 KNHC 311600
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 05 20110731
155000 1654N 06252W 4463 06772 0369 -127 -166 102008 008 /// /// 03
155030 1653N 06250W 4466 06764 0367 -125 -168 101007 007 /// /// 03
155100 1651N 06247W 4462 06772 0368 -125 -170 096007 007 /// /// 03
155130 1650N 06245W 4439 06809 0369 -128 -172 110006 007 /// /// 03
155200 1649N 06243W 4324 07010 0381 -137 -175 131007 008 /// /// 03
155230 1648N 06240W 4205 07226 0396 -141 -178 099011 011 /// /// 03
155300 1647N 06238W 4099 07420 0410 -148 -180 084013 014 /// /// 03
155330 1646N 06237W 4019 07572 0420 -158 -182 084015 015 /// /// 03
155400 1645N 06235W 3972 07659 0425 -165 -181 094015 016 /// /// 03
155430 1645N 06233W 3919 07757 0432 -172 -178 094016 017 /// /// 03
155500 1644N 06231W 3878 07840 0436 -179 //// 096017 018 /// /// 05
155530 1643N 06229W 3827 07940 0444 -186 //// 103019 019 /// /// 05
155600 1642N 06227W 3784 08028 0450 -190 //// 109017 018 /// /// 05
155630 1641N 06225W 3762 08068 0453 -190 //// 113017 017 /// /// 05
155700 1640N 06224W 3758 08076 0453 -194 //// 114016 016 /// /// 05
155730 1639N 06222W 3758 08072 0451 -192 //// 120015 016 /// /// 05
155800 1638N 06219W 3757 08074 0451 -192 -232 121014 015 /// /// 03
155830 1637N 06217W 3759 08070 0450 -192 //// 121014 015 /// /// 05
155900 1636N 06215W 3758 08070 0449 -193 //// 117014 015 /// /// 05
155930 1635N 06213W 3757 08072 0450 -195 //// 117014 015 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

only possible place a LLC would be at right now. looking at surface obs, satellite is about 13.5N 57.5W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

what surface obs are you referring to?

bouy's and barbados. the bouys which basically all are strung out right through the middle of the system all have east winds.. the only NE wind is on the western edge at barbados. that taken with the satellite showing eastward moving low clouds to the south of the coordinates I pointed out. leads to the only logical place a LLC could be ...

[HURAKAN]

[SouthFloridawx]

How about 14N/51.5W?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html

[Ivanhater]

72 hours



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[Frank2]

Per the Pro Met opinion 2 or 3 pages ago, if this does continue west into Central America that might indicate the season is going like the past few - systems that move quickly into the Caribbean and then into Central America and across the BOC...

We'll see, though as others said a significant change from the Atlantic trough mentioned the past few days...

No rain here in South Florida, and the local forecast indicates a ridge over Central Florida - meaning hot and dry for us (ugh)...

Frank

P.S. It does seem like the Texas drought has moved eastward across the Gulf - we are also below normal on rainfall...

[Sanibel]

I see Aric's center but I think there's a stronger one near 14-52

[Ivanhater]

78 hours



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[EyELeSs1]

only possible place a LLC would be at right now. looking at surface obs, satellite is about 13.5N 57.5W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

what surface obs are you referring to?

bouy's and barbados. the bouys which basically all are strung out right through the middle of the system all have east winds.. the only NE wind is on the western edge at barbados. that taken with the satellite showing eastward moving low clouds to the south of the coordinates I pointed out. leads to the only logical place a LLC could be ...

All the Bouys are well north of any 'center' they should be reporting easterly winds... Barbados has been reporting E-NE winds since yesterday

[Aric Dunn]

I see Aric's center but I think there's a stronger one near 14-52

.. bouy 41040 has a east wind and its location is on the in the middle of the western area. I see SW flow going to that area and no west flow I think its a winds shift rather than a circ. or there could be a small one in there too... so hopefully recon can clear this up

[Ivanhater]

90 hours



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[Dave]

390
URNT15 KNHC 311610
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 06 20110731
160000 1634N 06211W 3758 08071 0450 -191 //// 120014 014 /// /// 05
160030 1633N 06208W 3759 08068 0450 -192 //// 121014 014 /// /// 05
160100 1632N 06206W 3758 08069 0449 -195 //// 114015 016 /// /// 05
160130 1631N 06204W 3761 08064 0448 -194 //// 121014 014 /// /// 05
160200 1630N 06201W 3759 08067 0449 -192 //// 117014 015 /// /// 05
160230 1629N 06159W 3759 08069 0450 -194 //// 114015 015 /// /// 05
160300 1628N 06157W 3759 08069 0449 -190 //// 120012 013 /// /// 05
160330 1626N 06155W 3759 08068 0449 -190 //// 126013 013 /// /// 05
160400 1625N 06152W 3758 08071 0449 -189 //// 126012 013 /// /// 05
160430 1624N 06150W 3759 08065 0448 -187 //// 135013 014 /// /// 05
160500 1623N 06148W 3759 08065 0447 -190 //// 115012 013 /// /// 05
160530 1622N 06145W 3759 08062 0444 -192 //// 113011 011 /// /// 05
160600 1621N 06143W 3758 08064 0440 -190 //// 118009 009 /// /// 05
160630 1620N 06141W 3758 08052 0428 -191 //// 129009 010 /// /// 05
160700 1619N 06139W 3759 08054 0429 -195 //// 138008 008 /// /// 05
160730 1618N 06136W 3759 08040 0428 -192 //// 156009 009 /// /// 05
160800 1617N 06134W 3759 08072 0429 -191 //// 160009 009 /// /// 05
160830 1616N 06132W 3758 08035 0413 -190 //// 162009 010 /// /// 05
160900 1615N 06129W 3761 08014 0398 -189 //// 155010 010 /// /// 05
160930 1614N 06127W 3759 07964 0344 -190 //// 157009 010 /// /// 05
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Yikes for PR! Tracks thru the Mona Channel.

[EyELeSs1]

I see Aric's center but I think there's a stronger one near 14-52

.. bouy 41040 has a east wind and its location is on the in the middle of the western area. I see SW flow going to that area and no west flow I think its a winds shift rather than a circ. or there could be a small one in there too... so hopefully recon can clear this up

bouy 41040 is at 14°28'38" N 53°0'28" W... still north of the eastern area... I definitely see what you are talking about but don't think this is the area we need to watch for actual development

[Ivanhater]

So far..a touch further south and west then the 06z. Another westward trend.

[HURAKAN]

[Aric Dunn]

I see Aric's center but I think there's a stronger one near 14-52

.. bouy 41040 has a east wind and its location is on the in the middle of the western area. I see SW flow going to that area and no west flow I think its a winds shift rather than a circ. or there could be a small one in there too... so hopefully recon can clear this up

bouy 41040 is at 14°28'38" N 53°0'28" W... still north of the eastern area... I definitely see what you are talking about but don't think this is the area we need to watch for actual development

its not north of the eastern area,, its in the middle of it. well inside the convection. and if you look west from there around 55 W you can still see easterly flow. cant have a circ if its all easterly.
that bouy should have at least some northerly component to it.

[Ivanhater]

114 hours..still a bit south and west of previous run



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[ConvergenceZone]

I do see where WXMAN is coming from on his forecast. He mentioned either Recurve or Central America. At first I didn't see where he was coming from, but then I pulled up all the forecasted patterns for next week, and yep, that is one massive HIGH protecting the USA. WXMAN nailed it, as he often does . Either Recurve or Central America seems right to me.