ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Alacane2]

What are the chances Irene could take a Frederic type of track?

[LCfromFL]

Per Dr. Jeff Masters blog this evening:

"Irene most reminds me of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives."


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1888

Ugh...I had 18" of water in my house from Fay! After a very rainy August, the 20+ inches of rain were too much for the creeks to handle and we had flooding in areas that had not ever flooded before. Slow moving tropical storms can be brutal - in a completely different way.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Come on...don't wishcast or hope for a landfall....that's warped. Let's hope for a fish storm...with EVERY storm. Do you wish to stand next to someone at a funeral? Because landfalling storms make that happen.

[Ivanhater]

[quote="Alacane2"]What are the chances Irene could take a Frederic type of track?



GFDL, UKMET Canadian and Euro Ensembles think likely...we will see though

[Gustywind]

Hi,
Here, it's very quiet. Last weather report in TV said it's just rain and a little wind for martinique, for the end of the night, more like tropical wave. The worst is for Guadeloupe and Dominique. Take care Gusty.

Thanks for you report and glad to see that Martinica should not apparently deal with the strong effects of Irene. Yeah Dominica and Guadeloupe seems the two islands more concerned but all depends on Irene path and intensity. Take care my friend, once again be safe and dry and continue to keep us informed as possible.

[Rainband]

at this point the ball is in the air and i find these posts very entertaining

[jes]

Is this storm similar to or expected to be as large as Katrina was in size. Everyone is saying how large Irene is.

[SouthDadeFish]

Center estimate as of 01:45Z:

[Hylian Auree]

I think the LLC has reformed near 16N 59W now, maybe slightly northwest from there...

[BatzVI]

Here on the northside of St. Thomas...winds are ENE @ 16 gusting to 22 but no rain as yet

[ROCK]

I still think its tilted and not fully stacked yet but its very close...or the forward motion probably having something to do with that....JMO...

[SouthDadeFish]

I still think its tilted and not fully stacked yet but its very close...

I agree. I'm thinking by the time recon gets in there tomorrow morning, it will be much better organized.

[bamajammer4eva]

Is this storm similar to or expected to be as large as Katrina was in size. Everyone is saying how large Irene is.

Nah I would expect that Katrina was a once in a lifetime storm. None other should even come close.

[wxman57]

So...any time now that the GFDL sees an unfavorable environment, it'll just "shut down", even when the system could become a hurricane just 24 or 36 hours down the road once it enters more favorable conditions? How is that helpful?

That sort of sums it up. I'm just the messenger, I'm not the programmer.

[SouthDadeFish]

Is this storm similar to or expected to be as large as Katrina was in size. Everyone is saying how large Irene is.

It's hard to say for sure. Much will change as the storm interacts with land and tightens up as it develops. As of now it looks like this will be a larger than average storm. Btw this is the models thread. This should probably belong in the discussion thread.

[bella_may]

Is this storm similar to or expected to be as large as Katrina was in size. Everyone is saying how large Irene is.

Nah I would expect that Katrina was a once in a lifetime storm. None other should even come close.

Yeah that's what everybody said after Camille too. Just have watch and see

[CronkPSU]

Is this storm similar to or expected to be as large as Katrina was in size. Everyone is saying how large Irene is.

Nah I would expect that Katrina was a once in a lifetime storm. None other should even come close.

once in a lifetime? not even close...just happened to hit in a massively populated area in the United States

[SouthDadeFish]

Hard to see things clearly, but I think the center is at 15.5N 59.4W:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

[Adoquín]

I still think its tilted and not fully stacked yet but its very close...

I agree. I'm thinking by the time recon gets in there tomorrow morning, it will be much better organized.

recon tomorrow morning? are they nuts? they need to send a recon earlier than that based on appereance alone and the suspected center reformation at 16. Not many people are aware in the islands of what is going on and many will not realize they have a problem until Irene is basically on top of them. Of course that horrendous looking squall line in front is sure going to be a wake up call.

[SouthDadeFish]

I still think its tilted and not fully stacked yet but its very close...

I agree. I'm thinking by the time recon gets in there tomorrow morning, it will be much better organized.

recon tomorrow morning? are they nuts? they need to send a recon earlier than that based on appereance alone and the suspected center reformation at 16. Not many people are aware in the islands of what is going on and many will not realize they have a problem until Irene is basically on top of them. Of course that horrendous looking squall line in front is sure going to be a wake up call.

Well the islands are under a TS warning. I highly doubt the Lesser Antilles will experience hurricane conditions. Irene has a lot of work to do before it builds up the inner core to become a hurricane. As long as residents listen to local officials about the TS warning, I think they should be fine. Biggest threat will probably be rainfall in my opinion.