ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Ivanhater]

126 hours..a good bit SW of last run. Now hits the SE Bahamas...last run had it missing to the east...hmmm



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[Aric Dunn]

I believe that eastern area is where something should eventually take over once it can develop some deep sustained convection.

[pgoss11]

I do see where WXMAN is coming from on his forecast. He mentioned either Recurve or Central America. At first I didn't see where he was coming from, but then I pulled up all the forecasted patterns for next week, and yep, that is one massive HIGH protecting the USA. WXMAN nailed it, as he often does . Either Recurve or Central America seems right to me.

Could you give us a link to that forecasted pattern? Thanks.

[Dave]

060
URNT15 KNHC 311620
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 07 20110731
161000 1614N 06124W 3758 08033 0404 -190 //// 160008 008 /// /// 05
161030 1613N 06122W 3758 08061 0438 -190 //// 159007 008 /// /// 05
161100 1612N 06119W 3759 08065 0442 -190 //// 156006 006 /// /// 05
161130 1611N 06117W 3758 08067 0445 -190 //// 142006 007 /// /// 05
161200 1611N 06115W 3759 08067 0445 -190 //// 137007 007 /// /// 05
161230 1610N 06112W 3761 08057 0445 -190 //// 139007 008 /// /// 05
161300 1609N 06110W 3759 08063 0444 -190 -311 138007 008 /// /// 03
161330 1609N 06107W 3758 08068 0446 -191 -286 127007 008 /// /// 03
161400 1608N 06105W 3758 08068 0446 -198 -294 120009 010 /// /// 03
161430 1607N 06102W 3760 08065 0447 -196 -303 125009 010 /// /// 03
161500 1606N 06100W 3759 08064 0447 -195 -319 118008 008 /// /// 03
161530 1606N 06057W 3759 08067 0447 -195 -333 125008 009 /// /// 03
161600 1605N 06055W 3759 08063 0445 -191 -346 143007 007 /// /// 03
161630 1604N 06052W 3759 08066 0444 -190 -362 143006 006 /// /// 03
161700 1603N 06050W 3761 08066 0444 -192 -373 141005 005 /// /// 03
161730 1603N 06047W 3758 08068 0443 -190 -395 124005 006 /// /// 03
161800 1602N 06045W 3761 08058 0443 -191 -425 122005 005 /// /// 03
161830 1601N 06042W 3759 08061 0444 -195 -322 128005 005 /// /// 03
161900 1600N 06040W 3758 08066 0445 -195 -226 133005 005 /// /// 03
161930 1600N 06038W 3758 08068 0445 -195 -271 141005 006 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Ivanhater]

138 hours....strikes the Bahamas...pretty big shift from last run with it missing to the east. Still should turn, but each run has the turn further and further west



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[Aric Dunn]

A bit.... thats like 200 miles SW of 06z

[pgoss11]

That's significant.. correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the GFS have a right bias?

[Ivanhater]

WOW..poor Bahamas this run...look at the difference at the same time between the 00z run and the current run!

Current run



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00z run same time...huge shift west



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[pgoss11]

That's significant.. correc tme if I'm wrong, but doesn't the GFS have a right bias?

[EyELeSs1]

its not north of the eastern area,, its in the middle of it. well inside the convection. and if you look west from there around 55 W you can still see easterly flow. cant have a circ if its all easterly.
that bouy should have at least some northerly component to it.

Agreed there is easterly flow way out infront of this system. No doubt it is very elongated but from sat pics etc we have known this for a while no need for bouy data to confirm. Also the bouy is north of what ever 'center' there is even though not by much so easterly winds would be expected however a northerly component would indicate a better defined LLC.

[hipshot]

I do see where WXMAN is coming from on his forecast. He mentioned either Recurve or Central America. At first I didn't see where he was coming from, but then I pulled up all the forecasted patterns for next week, and yep, that is one massive HIGH protecting the USA. WXMAN nailed it, as he often does . Either Recurve or Central America seems right to me.

I live in the DFW area and our forecast indicates the lowest high temp for the next 7 days is 104!
I don't think that death ridge is going any where anytime soon.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah and still wnw at 150 hours.

[EyELeSs1]

I believe that eastern area is where something should eventually take over once it can develop some deep sustained convection.

I think this is what we both agree on

[Ivanhater]

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[pgoss11]

yeah and still wnw at 150 hours.

Oh my

[Aric Dunn]

look at the ridge on the 12z run still to its NE .. vs the 06z its almost not there

12z


06Z

[HURAKAN]

[SFLcane]

Thats a huge shift there on 12z buy the GFS...right of the florida coastline.

[wzrgirl1]

That's not a good trend we are seeing. Still a week away though....anything can happen.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like frances track..