ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

quite a big difference at 12z.

12z 60 hrs



6z

[artist]

obs 32

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 091430
97779 14264 60150 59308 15300 07025 17128 /2508
40330
RMK AF306 0214A MARIA OB 09
SWS = 31 KTS;

[wxman57]

If there's a center at 13.5N/58W, then Barbados' wind just 90 miles WSW is blowing precisely away from the LLC (ENE at 10 kts).

I agree its weak and not well defined but I made an image of the best place for it.

http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/5967/capturevoy.png

Yeah, I saw that tiny swirl. Recon found several others, too, but I don't think they're significant.

[Aric Dunn]

If there's a center at 13.5N/58W, then Barbados' wind just 90 miles WSW is blowing precisely away from the LLC (ENE at 10 kts).

I agree its weak and not well defined but I made an image of the best place for it.

http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/5967/capturevoy.png

Yeah, I saw that tiny swirl. Recon found several others, too, but I don't think they're significant.

yeah weak for sure. but if you extrapolate the 270-275 motion and speed from the last visible image from yesterday and calculate it the center would be about 13.5N 57-59W so I guess in that regards its probably whats left of the original center.

[Evil Jeremy]

if13.5N/58W is the canter, does that mean we can't rely on the recent model runs?

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091438
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 33 20110909
142900 1507N 05912W 8423 01587 0104 +178 +119 070024 025 035 000 00
142930 1507N 05910W 8426 01584 0102 +184 +117 070024 025 035 000 00
143000 1507N 05909W 8424 01583 0104 +179 +118 071025 025 034 000 00
143030 1508N 05907W 8424 01587 0108 +171 +121 075025 026 034 000 00
143100 1508N 05906W 8424 01582 0108 +170 +121 073024 025 034 000 00
143130 1508N 05904W 8425 01584 0109 +170 +121 071026 026 036 000 00
143200 1509N 05903W 8426 01580 0107 +171 +121 074025 026 037 000 03
143230 1509N 05902W 8425 01584 0109 +168 +125 071027 028 036 000 03
143300 1509N 05900W 8424 01582 0107 +170 +124 068028 028 035 000 03
143330 1510N 05859W 8424 01582 0108 +165 +126 072029 029 035 000 03
143400 1510N 05857W 8424 01586 0109 +167 +126 068030 030 035 000 03
143430 1510N 05856W 8428 01581 0109 +169 +124 066029 030 036 000 03
143500 1511N 05854W 8424 01584 0109 +167 +126 070027 028 037 000 03
143530 1511N 05853W 8433 01573 0109 +168 +125 066025 025 038 000 00
143600 1511N 05851W 8427 01579 0110 +166 +128 062026 028 036 000 03
143630 1512N 05850W 8423 01584 0110 +166 +127 067030 031 035 001 00
143700 1513N 05849W 8424 01583 0112 +164 +128 070031 032 034 000 03
143730 1513N 05848W 8424 01584 0110 +167 +125 080030 030 035 000 00
143800 1514N 05846W 8426 01579 0112 +162 +129 071027 030 037 000 00
143830 1515N 05845W 8424 01585 0109 +168 +129 068031 031 038 000 00
$$

[artist]

obs 33

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...MARIA EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 57.5W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA...HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
DOMINICA WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...SAINT
KITTS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...AND MARTINIQUE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES EARLY TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES BY LATE TODAY...THEN SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Gustywind]

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...MARIA EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 57.5W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[psyclone]

Every storm in the deep tropics this year has had issues with fast low-level flow.

So on September 9th we have a dying hurricane, a dissipating tropical storm, and a storm of non-tropical origins in the Bay of Campeche.

And yet we are on pace to have a potential record breaking season...How crazy is that???

SFT

this is the most boring hyperactive season since...last year!

[HurricaneWarning92]

If thats the center then shes well south of the forecast point, but i dont know what that would do to the track since models and NHC seem adamant on having her go through PR or just north of it.

[Aric Dunn]

if13.5N/58W is the canter, does that mean we can't rely on the recent model runs?

well for the most part I have not been paying putting to much faith in the models because each run they have consistently initialized a weaker ridge to its north thus kept trying to turn in 285 to 290 and obviously that never occurred. The continued trend with the ridging has been staying stronger and building west behind Katia and more than the models are seeing and for some reason have not done well with it... if they had it would be approaching the NE islands on a wnw track vs barbados on a WEST track. until they do a gulfstream mission I think the models are just running somewhat blind..

[cycloneye]

Excerpt from discussion for Aric and wxman57:

THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH MARIA. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED VERY
MUCH. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND
SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT WEST WINDS...BUT IT HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO LOCATE
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...THERE ARE ENOUGH
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS INDICATING A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT
JUSTIFIES MAINTAINING ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM.

THE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 42 KT TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING.

[wxman57]

Don't focus on a "center", focus on the area of squalls. The center is a meaningless point with Maria.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091448
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 34 20110909
143900 1515N 05844W 8424 01583 0108 +167 +123 079031 032 034 000 00
143930 1515N 05842W 8423 01583 0108 +168 +122 090029 030 032 000 00
144000 1516N 05841W 8423 01584 0105 +172 +120 090027 028 031 000 00
144030 1516N 05840W 8424 01584 0109 +165 +130 087029 031 031 001 00
144100 1516N 05838W 8420 01587 0108 +166 +124 084028 029 030 000 00
144130 1516N 05837W 8427 01579 0106 +170 +121 085024 026 032 000 00
144200 1516N 05835W 8421 01589 0107 +169 +119 084025 028 033 000 00
144230 1516N 05834W 8430 01577 0107 +172 +117 079032 034 033 000 00
144300 1516N 05832W 8424 01586 0108 +169 +114 088034 035 032 001 00
144330 1516N 05831W 8422 01585 0110 +165 +113 093034 035 033 001 00
144400 1516N 05829W 8424 01583 0106 +170 +110 091031 031 034 000 00
144430 1516N 05828W 8425 01579 0108 +169 +111 089031 031 036 000 00
144500 1517N 05827W 8424 01581 0107 +167 +114 087031 032 037 000 00
144530 1517N 05825W 8423 01581 0104 +172 +111 086032 033 037 000 00
144600 1518N 05824W 8426 01579 0103 +174 +110 083033 033 038 000 00
144630 1518N 05823W 8425 01580 0104 +173 +112 087031 032 039 001 00
144700 1519N 05821W 8422 01581 0105 +168 +120 090032 035 040 006 00
144730 1519N 05820W 8431 01574 0106 +168 +118 087036 037 041 005 00
144800 1519N 05819W 8428 01579 0107 +166 +114 085034 036 041 010 00
144830 1520N 05817W 8421 01585 0106 +167 +119 086034 034 042 005 00
$$

[CronkPSU]

Is there a gulfstream mission planned?

[cycloneye]

[artist]

obs 34

[FireBird]

Since this is all over the place, I just wanted to put this out there...
What are the chances of this taking a SW dive instead of a NW jog?