ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Cainer]

Looks like it's all systems go for 90L tonight, wouldn't be surprised to wake up to a depression tomorrow morning. It's always amazed me how often storms seem to thread the needle of the Yucatan channel; it's such a small target to hit, but so many storms seem to sail right on through!

[ROCK]

0z GFDL coming out soon....oh the suspense...

0z CMC doesnt see squat.....

[Texashawk]

I'm sorry, but I think this is still a mess. It was interesting this morning when I saw decent inflow, but now blah. Most of the did eventually develop a very sharp surface trough or weak surface low, so they haven't been that bad. I am going to play devil's advocate and say rather blindly that, based on the globals, no classification as a tropical cyclone will ever occur.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Are we even talking about the same system? I'm not trying to be rude, but... there's a pronounced spin, the cloud tops are firing very cold and the beginnings of a CDO is starting to form. Plus, the convection is expanding and the winds are closing off. If this is a mess, then I'd hate to see a real storm!

bro, hes been doing this same show since I became a member back in 04.....just let it go....

Thanks Rock... not that I was doubting my own limited, amateur forecasting skills, but... no, I wasn't.

[TwisterFanatic]

Won't be shocked whatsoever if RECON finds a TD tomorrow, maybe even Don.

[Texashawk]

Won't be shocked whatsoever if RECON finds a TD tomorrow, maybe even Don.

Me, neither. It's really come together since about 9 PM. Solid core and good spin now. And since it's fairly small, it should pull itself together quickly.

[CrazyC83]

TD4 at 5 am? Or will they wait for a visible?

[TwisterFanatic]

TD4 at 5 am? Or will they wait for a visible?

If it's clear, and they got evidence from the buoys, yes, if not they'll wait for RECON.

[ROCK]

they might call it TD5....better now than later I think since its bound for a GOM landfall somewhere. MY bet is recon will name this once they get in there tomorrow.

IMO, this might more formidable than some think....Models never handle intensity well....

[HurricaneBrain]

I'm sorry, but I think this is still a mess. It was interesting this morning when I saw decent inflow, but now blah. Most of the did eventually develop a very sharp surface trough or weak surface low, so they haven't been that bad. I am going to play devil's advocate and say rather blindly that, based on the globals, no classification as a tropical cyclone will ever occur.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

And this is why Storm2k has a disclaimer.

[TwisterFanatic]

they might call it TD5....better now than later I think since its bound for a GOM landfall somewhere. MY bet is recon will name this once they get in there tomorrow.

IMO, this might more formidable than some think....Models never handle intensity well....

That's a good point, didn't think about the GOM threat.

[ROCK]

0z GFDL.....right up the Houston Ship channel ala IKE.....at 66knts....also a Cat 1

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[ROCK]

HWRF....beefy cat 1 into Corpus...71kts

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[BigB0882]

GFDL seems to strengthen it rather quickly, from 35kts to 63kts in just 6 hours. Not sure if that will pan out but we don't want a rapidly strengthening storm moving in, it could surprise a lot of people.

[Texashawk]

GFDL seems to strengthen it rather quickly, from 35kts to 63kts in just 6 hours. Not sure if that will pan out but we don't want a rapidly strengthening storm moving in, it could surprise a lot of people.

Indeed. Even the notoriously hyperbolic Houston weather media has been giving this one a slow yawn for the last day or so.

[ROCK]

All you GOMERS need to check out the 0z GFDL and HWRF runs...in the model thread...

[TwisterFanatic]

HWRF doesn't seem to unreasonable strength wise.

[South Texas Storms]

Tonight's 0z Euro shows stronger vorticity making landfall near South Padre in 72 hours.

[hriverajr]

The GFDL does not look right.. The "storm" would already have to be moving NW for it to verify. Maybe a bit of -removed- but if that verified.. parts of Texas who need rain the most would get nada.. zilch

[ROCK]

that is a pretty scary scenario given some of things we have seen over the last few years....Rita ,Katrina and even Humberto.....bombing out like they did....The GOM is incredibly toasty right now...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[ROCK]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots