ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Saved Image

Still showing recurve, but a significant westward shift of the models. Interested to see if this trend will continue.

[northjaxpro]

I have browsed this thread off and on the past couple of days. It seems to me that King Euro model runs are now indicating more ridging over the next 120 hrs. This is a very interesting turn of events since just 36 hours or so ago when it seemed very likely that Katia would curve out to sea with only Bermuda potentially in harms way.

Now, the farther west Katia continues to go, the chances of portions of the CONUS East Coast being affected by her are gradually increasing. This is still a very fluctuating situation with Katia and we still have to watch her very closely!

[Riptide]

That model plot is a little frightening, less agreement between the GFS ensembles and a westward euro...

[gatorcane]

I have browsed this thread off and on the past couple of days. It seems to me that King Euro model runs are now indicating more ridging over the next 120 hrs. This is a very interesting turn of events since just 36 hours or so ago when it seemed very likely that Katia would curve out to sea with only Bermuda potentially in harms way.

Now, the farther west Katia continues goes, the chances of portions of the CONUS East Coast being affected by her are gradually increasing. This is still a very fluctuating situation with Katia and we still have to watch her very closely!

I agree so many (myself, some others here on this forum, and the media) have been writing this off as it will recurve.

It looked like that way a few days ago, but as the week has gone on, I am starting to wonder about that.

Still probably a better chance than not of recurving (most of these Cape Verde system do anyways right)...but definitely some suspense building on the future track of Katia

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET 120 hours shows more ridging with a bend W just north of the Leewards and Puerto Rico.

[Aric Dunn]

anyone else notice the UKMET

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_12.gif

[Aric Dunn]

12Z UKMET 120 hours shows more ridging with a bend W just north of the Leewards and Puerto Rico.

[img]http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/7524/12zukmet500mbhghtpmsltr.gif[/ig]

bends wsw !

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET 120 hours shows more ridging with a bend W just north of the Leewards and Puerto Rico.

[img]http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/7524/12zukmet500mbhghtpmsltr.gif[/ig]

bends wsw !

Yeah actually it does, some strong ridging that is for sure.

[Aric Dunn]

12Z UKMET 120 hours shows more ridging with a bend W just north of the Leewards and Puerto Rico.

[img]http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/7524/12zukmet500mbhghtpmsltr.gif[/ig]

bends wsw !

Yeah actually it does, some strong ridging that is for sure.

now that looks like IKE ..

[Weatherboy1]

Like many others, I figured this one had "Fish" written all over it. But the modelling sure is shifting west with time. Still a few days before we'll know if this trend continues and/or if this will be a U.S. threat. But I'm certainly paying a bit more attention.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

That ought to make things a little more interesting. Now we have to see if others start to join in or if it was just a fluke run and shifts back east later tonight or tomorrow. There is no way this could be a threat to Florida then the gulf, could it

[bobbisboy]

Why do so many feel the need to pronounce early on that a given storm will be a fish?
Katia may end up being so but it no longer looks like a slam dunk. This is why it's good
to wait and just see how things play out. Some of the early posts on this storm now
look ridiculous. Interesting storm. Waiting to see if this storm can pull it together
structurally. Euro was a large shift for one run.

[SouthFloridawx]

Kind of the like the opposite of Irene models started out west and trended eastward continually. Though the set up is different, still a parallel can be made.

[otowntiger]

No recurve for the CMC straight west

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

doesn't look due west to me. Sure, further west than the GFS and EURO but there looks to be a big weakness at the end of the run for Katia to go fishing

I agree. 'straight west' is an exageration there. And at the plot location there is still plenty of time for it to re-curve, albeit much closer to the EC than previously advertised - I'll grant you that. Again the trend is certainly interesting. Can/will the ridge build back/maintain enough of a western edge to keep her shunted to toward the coast? I guess its still too early to know for sure. I don't know about you all but I'm ready to know for sure now.

[otowntiger]

12Z HWRF wind swath

[ig]http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/9021/090112hwfswath.png[/img]

Animation (hasn't fully loaded at this moment)

No more west bend on that one.

[fci]

anyone else notice the UKMET

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_12.gif

I think someone superimposed the Ike track and replaced the UKMET with it.


Edit- Didn't see Aric's comment when I posted this. Great minds think alike. Or then again, Aric has slipped into thinking like me

[terrapintransit]

That ought to make things a little more interesting. Now we have to see if others start to join in or if it was just a fluke run and shifts back east later tonight or tomorrow. There is no way this could be a threat to Florida then the gulf, could it

I will say it again....Anything is possible at this point with Katia.

[Jevo]

12Z HWRF wind swath

http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/9021/090112hwfswath.png

Animation (hasn't fully loaded at this moment)

No more west bend on that one.

HWRF is assuming that puppy is a Cat5 in which case.. Synoptics get pretty squirlly when they start creating their own enviroment (700th Post Yayyy)

[eastcoastFL]

I gave up on this one two days ago. I was little shocked to look at the track today and see a westward type bend on day 5 rather than a recurve to the NE. Could 94l create a weakness in the ridge and invite Katia that way?

[hurricaneCW]

Well she's also moving more westward right now than models indicate due to some soutwesterly shear, that could possibly throw in a monkey wrench for Katia's future track.