ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

lol what did they do... just randomly pick a center.. recon has NE winds blowing right through those coordinates.. I think maybe they are just trying to keep a little continuity with there previous advisory so as to not have to adjust the center farther south again like yesterday morning. but oh well the center will eventually become more defined once it slows down.. still see no 285 motion.. at best 275 to 280

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091458
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 35 20110909
144900 1520N 05816W 8426 01576 0118 +147 +127 078037 038 045 010 00
144930 1520N 05814W 8418 01587 0110 +160 +120 079038 038 044 003 00
145000 1521N 05813W 8424 01582 0107 +166 +119 081036 036 043 003 00
145030 1521N 05812W 8426 01581 0107 +166 +120 082035 036 043 000 03
145100 1521N 05810W 8423 01582 0107 +165 +118 086036 038 040 000 00
145130 1522N 05809W 8425 01582 0106 +169 +122 090036 037 040 000 03
145200 1522N 05808W 8420 01587 0107 +168 +121 088036 038 038 001 00
145230 1522N 05806W 8418 01588 0106 +164 +126 089035 037 039 000 00
145300 1522N 05805W 8424 01580 0104 +170 +122 091037 038 038 002 00
145330 1523N 05803W 8422 01581 0105 +170 +115 092035 035 037 000 00
145400 1523N 05802W 8425 01577 0108 +165 +121 090036 036 036 000 00
145430 1523N 05801W 8426 01579 0108 +164 +122 092037 038 036 000 00
145500 1523N 05759W 8430 01572 0115 +153 +121 096040 041 038 004 00
145530 1523N 05758W 8425 01577 0109 +163 +116 100039 041 040 001 00
145600 1524N 05757W 8423 01584 0111 +159 +117 095038 039 041 001 00
145630 1524N 05755W 8425 01581 0109 +164 +117 091038 038 041 000 00
145700 1524N 05754W 8422 01583 0107 +165 +116 094037 038 041 003 00
145730 1524N 05753W 8415 01590 0117 +148 +125 095042 043 043 007 00
145800 1525N 05751W 8426 01577 0110 +160 +125 087042 044 044 005 00
145830 1525N 05750W 8435 01571 0114 +155 +125 091037 040 045 003 00
$$

[SuperLikeNintendo]

I don't know much, so feel free to dismiss my post.

She's still weak, she can keep moving west, and she's super unpredictable. She could just dissipate at this point, she could continue moving west and just recurve into FL, and she could take a random job to the SW half way through her recurve if something develops late in the game.

Maria is still a way out and ALOT could happen. Even Nate comes into play with Maria's projected path. Maria = Ninjacane.

Again, I'm no met and my opinions are my own.

[SFLcane]

if13.5N/58W is the canter, does that mean we can't rely on the recent model runs?

well for the most part I have not been paying putting to much faith in the models because each run they have consistently initialized a weaker ridge to its north thus kept trying to turn in 285 to 290 and obviously that never occurred. The continued trend with the ridging has been staying stronger and building west behind Katia and more than the models are seeing and for some reason have not done well with it... if they had it would be approaching the NE islands on a wnw track vs barbados on a WEST track. until they do a gulfstream mission I think the models are just running somewhat blind..

Theres great consensus with the models on a trof sweeping across the southeast next week and erodeing whatever weak ridge is there and cause the cyclone to recurve well east of florida. The patten thus far this season does not favor cv storms making the trek. Just some speculation on my part but the U.S. might go yet another year without a landfalling major. In few weeks its time to start watching the carib.

[KWT]

Maybe not a huge threat to the SE states yet due to the trough, but if it does shft westwards your going to eventually put hispaniola in the path of this system, and if that happens you can kiss goodbye this system's chances of becoming a hurricane can down the road...IMO!

[Aric Dunn]

if13.5N/58W is the canter, does that mean we can't rely on the recent model runs?

well for the most part I have not been paying putting to much faith in the models because each run they have consistently initialized a weaker ridge to its north thus kept trying to turn in 285 to 290 and obviously that never occurred. The continued trend with the ridging has been staying stronger and building west behind Katia and more than the models are seeing and for some reason have not done well with it... if they had it would be approaching the NE islands on a wnw track vs barbados on a WEST track. until they do a gulfstream mission I think the models are just running somewhat blind..

Theres great consensus with the models on a trof sweeping across the southeast next week and erodeing whatever weak ridge is there and cause the cyclone to recurve well east of florida. The patten thus far this season does not favor cv storms making the trek. Just some speculation on my part but the U.S. might go yet another year without a landfalling major. In few weeks its time to start watching the carib.

yeah Im not questioning the late track I was talking about the short term. the trough should eventually turn it once north of Hispaniola. looking at the trend with the ridging it would appear that a continued 275 to 280 track should continue for today and tonight. So a track south of PR is what Im thinking at the moment.

[cycloneye]

continuity

I think that was their decision for the 11 AM package.

[artist]

obs 35

[calmbeforestorm1]

The only way this threatens Florida is if it stays pretty much open for awhile and goes under PR and the DR.

[chrisjslucia]

Don't focus on a "center", focus on the area of squalls. The center is a meaningless point with Maria.

Wxman, I hear what you say - and it is too frustrating to try and square the circle of various estimates of the centre for us non-mets - but where is the major area of squalls - to the North East of the system?

[gatorcane]

if13.5N/58W is the canter, does that mean we can't rely on the recent model runs?

well for the most part I have not been paying putting to much faith in the models because each run they have consistently initialized a weaker ridge to its north thus kept trying to turn in 285 to 290 and obviously that never occurred. The continued trend with the ridging has been staying stronger and building west behind Katia and more than the models are seeing and for some reason have not done well with it... if they had it would be approaching the NE islands on a wnw track vs barbados on a WEST track. until they do a gulfstream mission I think the models are just running somewhat blind..

Theres great consensus with the models on a trof sweeping across the southeast next week and erodeing whatever weak ridge is there and cause the cyclone to recurve well east of florida. The patten thus far this season does not favor cv storms making the trek. Just some speculation on my part but the U.S. might go yet another year without a landfalling major. In few weeks its time to start watching the carib.

I agree, its a gonner if it goes north of Hispaniola (off to the Flemish grounds...the Hurricane graveyard...where the BIG fish go), would need to stay well south.

These troughs are just too strong. Makes you wonder if we will have a cold winter yet again in Florida.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091508
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 36 20110909
145900 1525N 05749W 8418 01585 0108 +168 +114 090032 032 045 002 00
145930 1525N 05747W 8425 01583 0111 +164 +115 088034 037 044 004 00
150000 1526N 05746W 8422 01585 0112 +165 +110 089033 034 044 002 03
150030 1526N 05744W 8426 01581 0111 +165 +107 092034 034 044 002 03
150100 1526N 05743W 8425 01581 0111 +167 +108 092035 036 045 001 00
150130 1526N 05742W 8425 01582 0110 +166 +109 091034 034 046 002 00
150200 1527N 05740W 8424 01582 0110 +168 +109 089033 033 045 002 00
150230 1527N 05739W 8424 01581 0110 +169 +110 087031 031 044 004 00
150300 1527N 05737W 8425 01580 0110 +169 +109 087029 030 046 004 00
150330 1528N 05736W 8427 01581 0111 +165 +110 088029 029 048 005 00
150400 1528N 05734W 8428 01581 0111 +165 +109 090029 030 047 005 00
150430 1528N 05733W 8421 01586 0109 +166 +111 089029 029 047 006 00
150500 1529N 05732W 8428 01580 0109 +168 +110 089030 031 049 005 00
150530 1529N 05730W 8422 01583 0108 +169 +110 086032 032 047 006 00
150600 1529N 05729W 8427 01580 0105 +172 +109 081032 032 047 006 00
150630 1529N 05727W 8424 01581 0102 +175 +107 078030 031 047 006 00
150700 1530N 05726W 8424 01579 0108 +167 +111 085030 031 046 008 00
150730 1530N 05725W 8422 01585 0108 +165 +111 089030 031 045 009 00
150800 1530N 05723W 8426 01579 0107 +169 +109 089032 034 046 009 00
150830 1531N 05722W 8426 01577 0105 +169 +108 093033 033 047 011 00
$$

[artist]

obs 36

[floridasun78]

you all think cone will stay east of bahamas or stift again to west like thur

[artist]

wide view

[Aric Dunn]

you all think cone will stay east of bahamas or stift again to west like thur

depends on what the Euro and GFS do for the 12z.

lasts night euro was still bringing to the central bahamas so if it does it again then its something to watch for.

[cycloneye]

2 sets of over 40kt winds at flight level and SMFR.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091518
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 37 20110909
150900 1531N 05720W 8423 01581 0102 +173 +107 093031 032 048 008 00
150930 1531N 05719W 8426 01576 0100 +180 +106 086030 030 048 010 00
151000 1532N 05718W 8425 01577 0095 +185 +105 081029 030 049 009 00
151030 1532N 05716W 8422 01582 0098 +182 +108 090030 030 048 007 00
151100 1532N 05715W 8427 01575 0097 +182 +109 085027 030 047 006 00
151130 1532N 05713W 8425 01578 0095 +186 +107 079020 022 048 006 00
151200 1533N 05712W 8429 01574 0096 +180 +110 053019 023 046 007 00
151230 1533N 05710W 8419 01585 0104 +165 +115 067015 021 046 008 00
151300 1533N 05709W 8412 01588 0113 +147 +117 111024 027 045 010 00
151330 1534N 05707W 8424 01577 0112 +154 +117 109026 031 047 010 00
151400 1534N 05706W 8425 01579 0113 +154 +114 114027 028 046 012 00
151430 1534N 05704W 8425 01580 0112 +158 +113 110026 027 045 011 00
151500 1535N 05703W 8426 01577 0116 +152 +116 113029 031 044 011 00
151530 1535N 05701W 8423 01581 0115 +154 +118 116028 030 045 011 00
151600 1535N 05700W 8422 01583 0113 +158 +118 107029 030 046 009 00
151630 1536N 05658W 8425 01580 0112 +160 +118 102032 033 044 009 00
151700 1536N 05657W 8424 01581 0112 +159 +117 098033 034 042 008 00
151730 1536N 05656W 8422 01584 0113 +160 +116 099033 033 043 007 00
151800 1536N 05654W 8424 01582 0114 +158 +117 102033 033 043 009 00
151830 1537N 05653W 8424 01583 0113 +161 +115 104032 033 044 009 00
$$

[artist]

obs 37

[Blown Away]

Aric, did the 12z NAM finish farther S and W?