ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

would like to make another good comparison to historical tracks... the GFS ensemble and euro tracks looks very much like this one..

[ozonepete]

Wow, circumstances are quite different now with Katia. This is clearly moving due west in the low level flow, maybe a tad north of due west is possible there. Aric has shown the steering currents well enough. They will definitely have to shift the track more west again at 5PM. What will be really interesting are tonight's 00Z run results since they should be initialized with the more southern track.

[Aric Dunn]

Well she's also moving more westward right now than models indicate due to some soutwesterly shear, that could possibly throw in a monkey wrench for Katia's future track.

exactly. the euro started out with a wnw to NW motion for 120 hours.. its barely moving 275 to 280

[Aric Dunn]

here is the full Euro run... that was really really close to missing that second trough too...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[fci]

Why do so many feel the need to pronounce early on that a given storm will be a fish?
Katia may end up being so but it no longer looks like a slam dunk. This is why it's good
to wait and just see how things play out. Some of the early posts on this storm now
look ridiculous. Interesting storm. Waiting to see if this storm can pull it together
structurally. Euro was a large shift for one run.

The early pronouncements are because this board is full of enthusiasts and we love to predict where a storm is going to go.
There really is nothing wrong with that as long as the disclaimer is used and people do this while the storm is no threat.
I think when a storm starts becoming a threat to someone the "tone" of the board changes and the tolerance for SWAG's becomes less.
When an Invest first starts out and a system is thousands of mile and days away, the guessing is fun and, in my opinion; appropriate for the board.
Just my opinions but no disclaimer since I have predicted nothing........and have provided no evidence of much intelligence either!

[gatorcane]

Why do so many feel the need to pronounce early on that a given storm will be a fish?
Katia may end up being so but it no longer looks like a slam dunk. This is why it's good
to wait and just see how things play out. Some of the early posts on this storm now
look ridiculous. Interesting storm. Waiting to see if this storm can pull it together
structurally. Euro was a large shift for one run.

The early pronouncements are because this board is full of enthusiasts and we love to predict where a storm is going to go.
There really is nothing wrong with that as long as the disclaimer is used and people do this while the storm is no threat.
I think when a storm starts becoming a threat to someone the "tone" of the board changes and the tolerance for SWAG's becomes less.
When an Invest first starts out and a system is thousands of mile and days away, the guessing is fun and, in my opinion; appropriate for the board.
Just my opinions but no disclaimer since I have predicted nothing........and have provided no evidence of much intelligence either!

well said

[SouthFLTropics]

I think it is safe to say that we are seeing a totally different scenario so far with Katia than what we saw with Irene. There is definitely no run to run consistency in the models right now. I still think they are having trouble dealing with the evolving situation in the GOM and any interaction that future Lee may have with troughs and ridges. I think we have some interesting days ahead.

SFT

[Meteorcane]

I was curious could a somewhat well established Lee in the central Gulf lead to a ridge developing in the general vicinity of Cuba/Florida which would help block Katia and force her notheastward. Because I remember reading somewhere that generally outflow channels can create areas of sinking air and high pressure/heights, but maybe I was mistaking or am greatly overestimating the strength of future Lee's outflow.

[Aric Dunn]

look how removed the convection is... the center is down at 15.6 to 15.8 .. very little north component at all today.. started out at 15.5 at the 11 am advisory.

[gatorcane]

Aric, yeah should be another shift west with the NHC track at 5pm EST right?

[cycloneye]

Maybe a downgrade?

[Aric Dunn]

I think it is safe to say that we are seeing a totally different scenario so far with Katia than what we saw with Irene. There is definitely no run to run consistency in the models right now. I still think they are having trouble dealing with the evolving situation in the GOM and any interaction that future Lee may have with troughs and ridges. I think we have some interesting days ahead.

SFT

actually most of the problem is what is occurring with the low of NC. the models that turn westward kick that out in about 36 to 48 hours ( which its slowly on the move already) the rest keep it there way way to long and thus leave a weakness there till the trough comes to pick it up. future lee has little to do with it right now.

[Aric Dunn]

I was curious could a somewhat well established Lee in the central Gulf lead to a ridge developing in the general vicinity of Cuba/Florida which would help block Katia and force her notheastward. Because I remember reading somewhere that generally outflow channels can create areas of sinking air and high pressure/heights, but maybe I was mistaking or am greatly overestimating the strength of future Lee's outflow.

actually yes. it could force some ridging to build to the NE of it and when the trough comes it would then slide east and potentially keep katia from turning. but I have only seen one run where something like that happened I think it was the nogaps 00z

[bobbisboy]

But the blanket statements look rather foolish now, don't they? As it is,
the EURO is suggesting this storm is play. And by they way, screaming
fish fish fish, is hardly a prediction. Just my thought.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, yeah should be another shift west with the NHC track at 5pm EST right?

Maybe a downgrade?

I would imagine a slight shift west early on then and a late since most of the guidance has shift west again.

and unless they have ship reports or buoy's out there I would think they will downgrade with the convection that removed.

[Meteorcane]

Ok thanks, and clearly with only one run of the NOGAPS (the NOGAPS lol) showing it, it would seem like a pretty small possibility at the moment.

[Aric Dunn]

now passing to the south of the projected forecast point... turn the overlay on ..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[HurricaneWarning92]

i think if she keeps moving westward, she will go through the Herbert Box... not that it means anything, other than it just shows you how far west shes been getting since every model had her (or still have her) missing the HB to the northeast. she would need to start moving on a wnw to nw track to miss it now i think...

[Aric Dunn]

actually looking at the models again.. they nearly all turn westerly except for the hwrf gfdl ... ithe NHC might even show a left bend to the track ...

[bexar]

this season is just too hostile for CV development